Welsh National 3:20 Chepstow.
Im going to do something I very rarely do, In fact I cant remember if I ever have done this. I have found 3 horse’s in this race I cant turn away from backing.
Each horse is major value in my eyes and although the most ever I stretch to in competitive race’s is 2 horses all 3 of these I can not afford to not back.
I will start the lively outsider of the 3. ACROSS THE BAY. Im not one normally for top weight in a handicap, never mind a national. 25/1, yes please and thank you very much for that massive price. I cant believe he is so big especially when this is his 1st preference over the 32 red handicap chase at Sandown. Ok this is a hell of an ask with the weight he is carrying but since coming back in October he has been a reformed animal. He will love the conditions and is a horse who likes to be up with the pace. Something which seems to pay of in the Welsh National. His form is mighty impressive this term aswell, something which has not gone unnoticed by the handicapper’s which shows he is rated. His last race caught my eye and is definately a very solid piece of form. 2nd to another reformed horse called Wayward Prince. That horse incidentally finished 2nd to Silvinaco Conti in the very competitive Charlie Hall. What struck me most about that form was that although he finished 2nd that day, he also gave the winner 6lbs which for me stands him in good stead of carrying top weight. This very same race at Aintree ACROSS THE BAY also finished in front the highly regarded Quito De La Roque off level weights. Now answer me this question if Quito Da Le Roque lined up here in the Welsh National what price would he be? A hell of alot shorter than 25/1 believe me. Get on this huge price e/w I think he will run a cracker.
My next one for this race is GILES CROSS. Cant get away from this one. A golden rule I like to stick by at Chepstow is course form. No other horse has it better than GILES CROSS, his course form reads 12F122 ( never out of front 2 when he stood up.) He has ran twice in Welsh National finishing 2nd on both occasions. He has an 8lb higher mark than last year but the front 2 were miles clear of the rest so I think he is capable of the carrying the rise. Another horse who likes to be up with pace. 10/1 very decent price for a twice runner up of this race.
Last one is a horse I have a twinkle in my eye for. MICHEL LE BON. Has had a troublesome career with injurys but can not get out of my head the comment that Paul Nicholls made about him, when asked who can be a next superstar in your yard in 2010, he nominated MICHEL LE BON. The inevitable happened after this he got injured and was out for more than a year. He made his reappearance in the Hennessy Gold Cup and although I backed him that day, being realistic he was never going to win that race on his comeback. He was pulled up on his next start after the Hennessy at Kempton, but bounced back to winning ways over hurdles at Cheltenham in April. I was really pleased with his first run this season when finishing 2nd to The Package in the Badger Ales at Wincanton. That was an excellent prep race for today and I believe Nicholls has eyed this race up for a while. Considering MICHEL LE BON is a 10 year old it is worth pointing out how lightly raced he is. He has only raced 9 times in his career.I genuinely believe MICHEL LE BON could be really well handicapped. Teaforthree is a big danger to all 3 our horses but reading along T43 form in the 4 miler at Cheltenham in March where he beat Harry The Viking by 2 lengths. I have no doubt in my mind that MICHEL LE BON is a much better horse than Harry the viking so those lines I would much rather be on our tip. He is 7/1 best priced.
By backing all 3 horses we are at worst on to a 4/1 winner when including your stake layout. I would much rather be on these 3 than a 3/1 favourite in Teaforthree who could actually hose up and then I eat my words but JPW is ultimate value bettor.
JPW Racing Tipster