2020 results

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28.77%

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34.29%

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Full time Results

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Profit to £10 stakes

£188

Average monthly profit

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Detailed results

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These are the write ups of 2020’s winners so far

23rd January

15:00 Gowran Park – TOTAL RECALL 16/1 – 0.75 POINTS E/W, (1/5 odds)

Willie Mullins loves this race and has won it 4 out of the last 10 years. He has the two market leaders in Acapella Bourgeois and Chef Des Obeaux but for me TOTAL RECALL, which is another horse he trains, is way overpriced. This horse had a lovely prep run over hurdles at the start of December which would have put him spot on for this race. Danny Mullins took the ride that day so it has obviously been the plan that he would partner him in this race. This is a horse who won the Muster National and followed up with a win in the Ladbrokes Trophy back in 2017, off a mark of 147. He is only 2lb higher in the handicap today on a mark off 149 which looks very workable. Remember this is a horse who may well have placed in the 2017 Gold Cup, but for falling at the 3rd last fence. He has crept down the handicap since and on this mark I think he has a big race in him, as for his age he is relatively lightly raced. With 6 places on offer and I am quietly confident, I am also happy to raise the stake slightly.

22nd January

13:20 Catterick – SHOW PROMISE 15/2 – 0.5 POINTS E/W

SHOW PROMISE is making his debut over hurdles after three 2nd’s in bumpers. Trainer Philip Kirby horses are always good jumpers giving off the vibe that he does plenty of schooling with his horses and I imagine they have been schooling SHOW PROMISE for some time. We are taking a chance giving we don’t know how he will jump but it is a chance worth taking, given he has been 2nd 3 times in bumpers and is 15/2. On all 3 runs he was beaten by a 1 length or less so showed signs of a decent horse. The hurdles may actually improve SHOW PROMISE as they do so many Philip Kirby horses. Thomas Dowson takes the ride and he is a jockey, I have paid a lot of attention to this season and one I feel is under-rated. Overpriced. E/W.

19th January

13:50 Ayr – GLINGER FLAME 2/1 – 1 POINT WIN

Todays favourite Dali Mail and GLINGER FLAME both made their debut over fences at Newcastle in December. Dali Mail came out on top that day but had 3lb in hand over GLINGER FLAME. Today Dali Mail carries 5lb more, so GLINGER FLAME meets that horse on 8lb better terms. He will need to improve his jumping but that is to be expected given he has only had one start over fences. He is a horse who also knows how to win, given he won 3 races on the bounce last season, over hurdles. With everything, there is every chance that form will be turned around today.

14th January

14:10 Doncaster – THE BIG BITE 9/2 – 1 POINT WIN

All eyes with be on Caribean Boy who was purchased by Simon Munir for £180k in May 2018. He was sent to nicky Henderson but has yet to run a race, being off the track for 632 days. His last run came in France so although he has potential, he may need the run, particularly in this soft ground.
I am happy to take him on with The Big Bite who was a decent novice earning himself a rating of 140. He has had one run over fences and although he was well behind, it was a decent run against the likes of Master Tommytucker and Thomas Darby. This race looks a lot easier on paper and he is entitled to improve. He is a horse who has always looked a chaser and he has a nice opportunity to get his head in front tomorrow. WIN.

11th January

14:05 Kempton – FRODON 2/1 – 1.5 POINT WIN

I am surprised FRODON is as big as 2/1 if I am being honest. He is the highest rated horse in the race with a handicap mark of 168. His nearest rival on the rating is Top Notch who is rated 161. FRODON according to the handicapper is a 7lb better horse, yet Top Notch is 4/5 and FRODON 2/1, off level weights. Top Notch did win this race last year and seemed to like Kempton. He beat Black Corton that day by 5 lengths but Frodon is a much better horse than Black Corton.
As usual I expect Bryony Frost to use the horses stamina and run these rivals into the ground from the front, making the others make mistakes with his outstanding jumping.
I am happy to put a line through the form of his last race as it was against the likes of Lostintranslation and Bristol De Mai. I am also happy to do the same with his penultimate run as they removed loads of fences, which done the horse no favours whatsoever at Aintree.
FRODON has run well at Kempton in the past and I expect him to go close in this. For me it is a 2 horse race between our selection and Top Notch, yet the bookies are giving me 2/1 in what I believe is a 2 horse race.

15:35 Warwick – SILVER SHEEN 10/1 – 0.5 POINTS E/W

SILVER SHEEN also travels over from Ireland and is trained by the excellent Jessica Harrington. Knowing what I know about her she would in no way be wasting a journey over here if she wasn’t all out to get SILVER SHEEN qualified in March, which of course means he has to win this race, in order to do so, given his current mark is 131. Robbie Power takes the ride and he has rode the horse on his last two starts which were both wins at Thursles and Wexford. He is only a 6 year old but has progressed lovely on his last two starts and last time out won by 6 lengths. He beat a horse called Royal Thief who boosted his form by winnings at Thurles today. I think he has to be involved given how progressive he is and this trip will bring out even more improvement. E/W.

8th January

13:45 Ludlow – DOLPHIN SQUARE 9/4 – 1.5 POINT WIN

DOLPHIN SQUARE is owned by the same connections as For Langy and he is going to take all the beating in my opinion. He has won 3 of his last 6 starts and is going in the right direction. He was a winner of his penultimate start before being stepped to 3 miles for a very competitive handicap hurdle at Cheltenham last time out. He finished 4th of 18 that day and maybe under a better jockey than David Maxwell, would have won. David Maxwell takes the ride today and although I don’t think he is a bad jockey, there are better jockeys around. Nevertheless I still think DOLPHIN SQUARE will have to much in hand for the rest and expect him to go off around the 7/4 mark. WIN.

4th January

12:45 Sandown – SILVER FOREVER 7/4 – 1.5 POINT WIN

My long term subscribers will know that I have a soft spot for SILVER FOREVER who has won twice for us all season. She is a very slick jumper who takes lengths out of other novices at her hurdles. She was a winner on her debut at Chepstow over 2m 3f and this was followed up with a win at Newbury over 2m, which is a trip to short for her really. She then went back to Newbury over the same trip and finished 3rd to a smart horse in Floressa. She has always looked like a horse who needs a trip and now up to 2m 4f, I am sure you will see the best of her. She is going to be a smashing chaser next season but for now she is more than capable of picking up decent prizes like this, with her jumping beng her asset. WIN.

14:25 Sandown – FIDDLERONTHEROOF 9/4 – 1.5 POINT WIN

I think FIDDLEROFTHEROOF is going to turn out to be a very smart horse. She made her debut for new trainer Colin Tizzard at Chepstow in October, coming home 2nd to Thyme Hill, who is a very good horse. He then stepped back in trip to 2 miles at Wincanton and came home 2nd to Edwardstone. Although connections were disappointed, Edwarsdtsone did come out and win his next start which give the form a boost. FIDDLERONTHEROOF final start was at this course last month where everything seemed to click. It was an impressive win and he looked a horse with a serious engine. This is now his 4th start over hurdles so has plenty of experience for a novice. It will take a good one to beat and I am quietly confident. WIN.

2nd January

14:40 Cheltenham – PORTRUSH TED 11/4 – 1.5 POINTS WIN

PORTRUSH TED looks well handicapped on a mark of 131. He was a good winner of a Grade 2 bumper at Aintree back in 2018. He beat horses like Kateson (now rated 137), Harambe (now rated 144), Al Dancer (now rated 151), Pym (now rated 137) and Mister Fisher (now rated 144). As you can see it was a very hot bumper and POTRUSH TED didn’t just beat them, he annihilated the field. He then made his debut over hurdles at Perth last August and won by 17 lengths. He has not been seen since but the mark of 131 looks lenient. He may well need the run but I can’t see why they would travel all the way from Lambourn (Berkshire) to Ayr (Scotland) if he wasn’t ready to win with. If he needed the run he could have stayed local. I think this horse is in a different league to these and the 11/4 looks a decent price. WIN.

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