I have 2 selections today both in the Lanzarote hurdle 2:40 Kempton. For me both offer tremendous value.
The first selection is a very big price and in my eyes well overpriced. SECRET EDGE needs to return to the form of last season as this term he has looked nothing like his old self. One thing is certain that he is really well handicapped. He starts the race off a mark of 128 and has apprenticeship jockey Peter Hatton claiming 7lb so he basically goes off 121. He is at least 10lb a better horse than 121. I think Alan King has also been sneaky this year protecting his mark. He finished way down the field his last 2 runs against 2 of todays opponents in Bears Affair and Loose Chips who won races respectively. He is nearly 2 stones better off with those rivals today which is a big advantage. SECRET EDGE will also appreciate the ground (good to soft). Its been bottomless every run this year and I think this has played a big part in his downgrade in form. Last years form included beating Countrywide Flame(good ground), two decent 3rds behind Hinterland and Batonnier(good to soft) as well as a excellent run finishing 5th in the Irish champion hurlde to Hissabaat. With this form on his CV, only being a 5 year old, very low handicap mark and appreciation of better ground I am all over the 40/1 available at Paddy Power. Now that is Big. Back e/w.
Next selection in the race is a horse I have always liked. Emma Lavelle’s CAPTAIN SUNSHINE. Another horse who has run below par this term, but another horse who will love the better ground. His last 2 runs have been on bottomless ground. Something else which caught my eye is the form behind Black Thunder. CAPTAIN SUNSHINE got beat by 1/4 of a length that day off level weights. Today he is just under 1 stone better off in weight and nearly 3 times the price of Black Thunder. There is alot of value on offer in CAPTAIN SUNSHINE and at 14/1 Best price Guaranteed with Will Hill you cant go wrong.
For me tomorrow is all about spotting the horse who will improve for much better ground, something we have not had all Winter. Horses can improve 2 stone just for better ground.
JPW Racing Tipster