To Member
Another Festival is over and another festival where we are in profit yet again. It has been an amazing St Leger where we made a profit on all 4 days.
The week started with LINCOLN doing the business at advised 10/1 on the day.
Day 2 was our best day with KIYOSHI going in at 11/1 and BONDS GIRL 14/1. I had alot of emails from people who had the combination double up so welL done to all.
Day 3 was yet another great day with BEACON doing the business at advised 11/1. We did get lucky in this race but we got to take it anyway it comes.
Day 4 we also made a small profit with MOUNT LOGAN going in at 7/2.
Below is a full write up of horses and conclusion with a few pointers for your note book.
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ST LEGER DAY 1
For Day 1 we have 3 races from Doncaster.
2:30 EBF Conditions Stakes
This is a race where I only have 1 selection which is down to the serious value available on GROWL. Currently trading at a best price 7/1. For me that price is huge as I know for a fact he is a lot better than his showing at York when he finished 7th. We actually tipped him up that day along with the winner Dutch Connection. Maybe the 7 furlongs stretched him a bit on only his 2nd start and today he back over 6f which is the same distance as when he won at Ascot in July. As stated at the York Ebor meeting, that performance at Ascot was very impressive and the way he quickened was very eye-catching. I stated in my conclusion that I wouldn’t be surprised if GROWL went out and won a weaker race next time and that is exactly where we are today. GROWL has some tough competition in Angelic Lord and Markaz but both are very short on what they have achieved.
Angelic Lord is the biggest danger for me but only looked to be plugging on when 5th against Ivawood at Newmarket. He has also not been seen for 2 months so it makes me wonder whats been going on and if he has taken a backwards step.
CONCLUSION
GROWL was a non runner but he is one that I will definitely be keeping an eye out for in the future.
3:00 John Smith’s Scarborough Stake’s
I have 2 selection’s in this race.
STEPS is a very frustrating as he often breaks badly but always stays on big time at the end of the races. I can forgive his run in the Group 1 Nunthorpe Stakes where maybe he was out of his depth. Now back down in class to a Class 1 I expect a big run here today. STEPS is a course and distance winner and judging by his previous 3 starts which has been in 2 Group 1s and a Group 3, this field should hold no problems for him. Does have top weight to tackle but has handled top weight on many other occasions so can’t see that beng a problem. STEPS will be staying on a the end while others are slowing up. 13/2 is a fair price.
ONLINE ALEXANDER is a 3 year old who has been really progressive all season. He has weight allowance today which is a big bonus and is going in the right direction. He has 2 wins to his name this season at Goodwood and York. It is worth noting the time of his win on at York was only 0.04 slower than Sole Power in the Nunthorpe which shows what a top effort it was. He was carrying less on his back but for a 3 year you have to respect the time comparison’s. 8/1 is good value.
CONCLUSION
In a race where Mecca’s Angel was really impressive and the future looks bright for him.
STEPS probably found things tough carrying 10 stone but ran a sound race to pick up some small E/W money. I do think a decent race is to be won with STEPS in the right race but does look to be in the handicappers clutch for now.
ONLINE ALEXANDER is only a 3 year old who actually ran a sound race finishing 6th. If Kevin Ryan sends against the same age this season I would be interested. The future looks bright as she should improve next season.
4:45 Romero Insurance Brokers Handicap
I quite like the form of a race at Chester where WILDE INSPIRATION and LINCOLN met 3 weeks ago. Both put in good performances to finish 3rd and 4th from a very wide draw. To finish so close from that wide a draw is a better performance than it looks on paper. The handicapper has also left them both on the same mark which is an added bonus and I cannot ignore them at 7/1 and 10/1.
CONCLUSION
Both went off a lot shorter than when selections were sent out the previous evening. I knew the form at Chester was pretty good as Chester is a really tight track. For them to finish 3rd and 4th from stall 13 and 14 was as good as winning the race by 2-3 lengths it is that tough. My thoughts proved right and LINCOLN gave us a nice start to day 1 at the advised 10/1.
Wouldn’t be overly keen to see where they go next but if WILDE INSPIRATION handicap mark comes down he could prove a bet next time out.
ST LEGER SPECIAL DAY 2
2:10 Japan Racing Association Sceptre Stakes
JOYEUESE is a horse I hold of the highest regard and this step down from Group 1 company is ideal. JOYEUSE latest run was a t Deauville against the boys which was probably a step to far. Now against her own sex and a drop in class will be just what the doctor ordered. JOYEUESE is a horse I have always had my eye on and she finishes her races so well with a big turn of foot. Doncaster will be a course likely to suit and although James Doyle has chose Bragging over our selection, Ryan Moore is a nice replacement and he is 1 from 1 on her. You would have to say 9/1 looks big.
KIYOSHI was once a 1000 guineas favourite and is of the highest quality. She has been contesting Group1 after Group 1 so this drop in class will suit. 7 furlongs will suit as her last 4 starts have been over 1 mile which may have stretched her a bit to far. She runs in first time Cheekpieces which looking at the way she runs will help her concentrate that little bit more. KIYOSHI looked to be hitting the top when winning the Albany Stakes last year at Royal Ascot but things didn’t materialise. Still running well in defeat nonetheless and I feel a bold show is on the cards today 11/1 is huge.
CONCLUSION
The bookies got this one completely wrong. How KIYOSHI went off 11/1 is beyond. She is top class and showed but he way she travelled under a confident ride by Jamie Spencer. Will probably go back up to Group 1 next time where she may find 1 or 2 too good good but still a talented horse nonetheless.
JOYEUSE frustrates me as I know a big race is in her. May be dropped to handicap company but I haven’t lost faith in her just yet.
3:15 Weatherby’s £300k Stakes
Richard Fahey has 7 horses lining up in this race so he means business. That is basically 33% of the field. I think BONDShen GIRL is his number 1 choice and Patrick Mathers carries a low weight of just 8 stone 1lb. BONDS GIRL has been dropped 6lb since a decent 4th in the Super Sprint at Newbury. I find that quite strange as the winner Tiggy Wiggy was devastating that day and has since gone on to win a Group 2 at York and is now the 2000 guineas favourite. The Step up in trip to 6 furlongs will also be ideal and I am very happy with the 14/1 available.
THE GREAT WAR has been contesting Group races all year so you would have say he will be involved here today now down in class to a class 2. He is highly thought of by Aiden O’brien and was a big fancy at Royal Ascot going off 5/6 fav in the Norfolk Stakes. Was disappointing that day but I know for a fact he is capable of better and a race like this is well within his capabilities. 7/1 is available.
CONCLUSION
BONDS GIRL gave us an amazing Day 2 winning at 14/1. As stated above the handicapper messed this one up by bringing her down 6lb. TIGGY WIGGY is a proper Group 1 horse so to finish 4th to her was excellent form. Will probably go up a few pounds now so she is best watched for now.
THE GREAT WAR looked to be travelling well but faded the last furlong. Think 5 furlongs is her optimum trip and has probably been over hyped by Aiden O’brien and not as good as they first thought.
ST LEGER DAY 3
1:40 Polypipe Flying Childers Stakes
I thought BEACON has been very unlucky on his last 2 starts. Last time out at York he looked like the winner at One stage but didn’t quite get the 6 furlongs as he stopped 1 furlong out. The time before which was over 5 furlongs at Goodwood he looked all over them but had traffic problems and finished 3rd to another of todays runners Cotai Glory. My opinion is he would of beat Cotai Glory that day had he had a clear run. Cotai Glory is rated 5/1 today yet BEACON 9/1. Todays trip is back over 5 furlongs which is another bonus as is William Buick who I reckon will be suited to his style of running more than Richard Hughes is.
This may be me but I am pretty sure Jamie Spencer would of had the pick of the favourite Ainippe and MIND OF MADNESS as he is Quatar Racing retained jockey. If this is case then the 11/1 available for MIND OF MADNESS looks huge. In any case MIND OF MADNESS is still a horse who has to be respected on his form at Ascot and York and even when 7th at Newmarket had his excuses as the trip was 6 furlongs. I feel he could have a lot more to come and I am very happy with the 11/1 available.
CONCLUSION
When your Luck is in your luck is in. Simple as that. Cotai Glory looked sure to be the winner but veered right and threw jockey off right on the line. BEACON came storming through to win race. If I am being honest it was very lucky but you have got to take them anyway they come. As stated above I believed the 5f would suit better in what proved to be right.
3:45 Coopers Marquees Handicap
DOC HAY did run today and to be honest ran a shocker but he did have his excuses with being drawn stands side. The quicker ground was obviously the other side as they finished well ahead of the field on the stands side. He also seemed to hang which is unusual for this horse. Reading between the lines David O’Meara must fancy this horse as he looks desperate to run him again. He is drawn the other side today in 3 which will help massively and looks really well handicapped at 87 on last years form. We also have Sam James claiming 3lb. He has track winning form and judging by the field I think this race could set up nicely for him. 20/1 is available.
POOLE HARBOUR is massive at 33/1 and why he is that big I will never know. He did get beat a very long way at Chester but that was his first run in over 400 days which was against him, as was the slow ground and wide draw. That was just a warm up race for today in my eyes as he was never going to win at Chester. Has been drawn with the decent ground today which will help with his froth running style. Has changed yards from Richard Hannon to David Nicholls who is very shrewd with horses like this.
CONCLUSION
DOC HAY was a non runner which left us just with POOLE HARBOUR.
POOLE HARBOUR was tailed off at the back of the field beaten a distance. Does not look the horse of old but the handicapper should drop him a good few pounds after that. Could prove a bet in the future if the handicap mark is low enough.
ST LEGER DAY 4
3:50 St Leger Stakes
The race we have all been waiting for the St Leger. For me Kingston Hill is there to be shot at with this big step up in trip.
HARTNELL has been my St Leger horse all year and I am not about to desert him on the back of a bad run at York over a trip far to short of his best. Now back up to 1 mile 6 furlongs I believe you will see the true HARTNELL. He beat Windshear comfortably at Goodwood yet is double the price. Mark Johnson has had this as his target for a while now and the 14/1 looks huge.
KINGS FETE is highly thought of by Sir Michael Stoute and has quietly gone about his business all year. I believe he has never been full wound up all year and Stoute has campaigned him to peak in this race. Has not looked straightforward in his last 2 runs but he that is because he has not had a true run race. With lots of pace in the field I am sure his Stamina will kick in when others have had enough in the closing stages. 10/1 is available.
CONCLUSION
Hands up I got this one wrong as Kingston Hill won comfortably. I was confident the step up in trip would catch him out but I was wrong.
KINGS FETE still needs to grow up a bit and will be a better horse next year.
HARTNELL was travelling better than anyone 2 furlongs out and I was saying here we go. Found nothing when push come to shove and was quite disappointed with how well HARTNELL was travelling.
4:25 Napoleans Casinos and Restaurants Handicap
THA’IR will be suited by the small field and is down in class for this. He is crept down the handicap a few pounds and I think Mikey Ennis claiming 7lb will be all the difference in this race. He is a jockey I rate very highly and the 7lb advantage he has is worth the weight in gold. This is a drop in class for THA’IR and I can’t believe he is available at 9/1.
MOUNT LOGAN is highly rated by Lucas Cumani and the weight allowance he has being a 3 year old is very handy. He has 1 stone alb in hand over Bold Sniper and 8lb better off with Mighty Yar and our selection THA’IR. This could prove to be a huge advantage. 7/2 is skinny but he just stands out by a mile.
CONCLUSION
MOUNT LOGAN weight difference proved to be to much for the field as he stormed clear to win comfortably and end our Festival on a high with the 4th profitable day in a row.
Kind Regards
JAMES WALSH