PADDY POWER FESTIVAL LOWDOWN
What an amazing weekend and another festival where we have cleaned up. We had 7 winners out of 10 races that’s a huge 70% strike race. Its also the 11th Festival we have made profit this year. We have had 247 members for the Paddy Power Festival which includes 150 festival subscribers and 97 full time members.
I estimate that we have taken the bookies for at least £250k between us in just 3 days.
Please could I ask you all to leave a review on www.tipstersreview.co.uk about my services if possible. It will be greatly appreciated. Even if you have left a review before you can also leave another review. I would like to get to Number 1 which is something I have been working very hard and only with your help will I be able to do so. I think you guys will agree if nothing else this weekend is worth a positive review.
90% of the 150 festival members have been the same people all year so to make it is easier admin wise and to offer discount for loyal members, I am going to offer a yearly subscription for festivals.
In total I have 13 full Festival Specials which are always £5 a go and a Weekend Special on Guineas weekend. This would cost £67.50 but as a goodwill gesture to loyal members, I am going to offer a yearly subscription for all 14 at £52. This is a discount of £15.50. Each festival works out at £3.70 by doing it yearly.
Please visit www.jpwracingtipster.com to sign up for the year. I will only be offering this discount until Monday 24th November then I will remove it from the website.
The idea behind this is to make it more manageable instead of sending out promotion email every 4-5 weeks and basically I can then make it exclusive to 150 people. Below are the festival specials and dates.
Hennessy Meeting – 27th November – 29th November
Xmas Special – 26th December – 1st January
Festival Trials Day – 24th January
Cheltenham Festival – 10th March – 13th March
Grand National Festival – 9th April – 11th April
Punchestown Festival – 28th April – 2nd May
1000+2000 guineas weekend – 2nd May – 3rd May
Royal Ascot – 16th June – 20th June
Newmarket July Meeting – 9th July – 11th July
Glorious Goodwood – 28th July – 1st August
York Ebor Festival – 19th August – 22nd August
St Leger Meeting – 9th – 12th September
Newmarket Cambridgeshire Meeting – 24th September – 26th September
Paddy Power Festival – 14th November – 16th November
£52 for 1 year at www.jpwracingtipster.com
For those who are interested in a full time subscription below are the type of subscriptions we do at www.jpwracingtipster.com
1 week £7.50
1 month £22
3 months £55
6 months £100
1 year £175
Now for the lowdown on the Paddy Power with a conclusion after each race.
PADDY POWER FESTIVAL DAY 1
1:15 Opus Energy Amateur Riders Handicap Chase
We have 2 selections in this race.
BROADWAY BUFFALO will absolutely love the soft ground and based on his hurdle handicap mark 141 he has a massive chance here off a chasing mark of 130. He is basically 11lb well in on his hurdle mark. BROADWAY BUFFALO has only had 3 starts over fences and made his debut at Wetherby when getting beat at long odds on by Lovcen on soft ground. We can forgive that run as this was his first outing over fences. He then bumped into 2 very smart horses in Southfield Theatre and Knock House in his next 2 runs and ground was against him. Everything is in his favour here today. The rain has fallen, has shown a liking to the track at last years festival and is ahead of the handicapper. I cannot see how he won’t be involved and although only 4/1 I am confident he get us off to a flyer.
CHARINGWORTH finished 2nd in this race last year behind another of todays runners Handy Andy. We are 5lb better off with him today so see know reason why that form won’t be reversed. He always runs a good race at Cheltenham with 2 2nds on his last 2 outings. His last start was back in October at this track where he finished runner up off level weights to The Young Master. That was a top performance as The Young Master absolutely bolted up in the Badger Ales at Wincanton on Saturday and Ballybriggan who finished 3rd to them both in October also went and won the other day. CHARINGWORTH won’t mind the ground and another horse I think will play a big part. 7/1 is a lovely price.
CONCLUSION
This is where it all started and we had a 1st and 3rd. CHARINGWORTH was a monster bet looking back especially with The Young Master winning the Badger Ales to boost his form. This combined with his top form at Cheltenham made him one of the bets of Cheltenham in hindsight. Will no go up the handicap but will keep a close eye on his engagements at Cheltenham in the future.
BROADWAY BUFFALO ran a cracker as a novice chaser and should stay on the same mark. I will be backing next time out as I do believe he is still ahead of the handicapper.
1:50 Paddy Power Handicap Chase
We have 2 selections in this race.
NEXT SENSATION ran a cracker here in the Grand Annual at the festival. How he managed to finish 4th after the way he went out is beyond me and I said to myself that he must be a lot better than his handicap mark of 145. Was easily put in place 2 weeks ago at Ascot but I reckon he needed the run judging by his coat and it should of put him spot on for today. NEXT SENSATION has winning form on soft and if he puts in a run on par with the festival he will win with ease even off top weight. This is a drop in class for him and I fully expect him to be involved now he has a run under his belt. 12/1 is a lovely price.
KARINGA DANCER won in good fashion when last seen at Exeter in May. He went into my notebook as one to follow for next season as everything seemed to click that day but he did jump left which will be ok at Cheltenham as its a left handed track. He is down in trip but I reckon that could be a plus as he won a hot race over hurdles at Aintree last October over 2 miles so he definitely has the speed. Although most of his runs have been on better ground his action tells me he will like soft ground so I am not worried about that. KARINGA DANCER is a huge horse who has always screamed chaser and I expect him to reach his full potential this season. 10/1 is available.
CONCLUSION
NEXT SENSATION ran no sort of race and apart from the weight I have no excuses. KARINGA DANCER was making a move 2 out before falling. Although not sure he would of got their I am pretty sure he would of had a play in the places.
Be interesting where they both go next and particularly KARINGA DANCER on better ground.
2:25 Steel Plate And Sections Novices Chase
CHAMPAGNE WEST is a horse I am very excited about this season and only just missed out on my 25 to follow because I included Pont Alexandre and Saphir De Rheu who will probably be aimed at the RSA Chase with Champagne West. He is a horse I have waited a few years to go chasing and now the time is here. Philip Hobbs in every interview has always said wait until he goes chasing. For a horse who they have waited to go chasing he didn’t half do well over hurdles with 3 wins. He beat Deputy Dan and Knock House and then an excellent 4th at the festival in the Albert Bartlett. For a horse who was described to dislike good ground before that race he travelled smoothly throughout before getting caught out with the ground being to fast. Their is no chance of that happening today with the ground being soft and as long as he jumps he wins its as simple as that for me. 4/1 is available.
CONCLUSION
CHAMPAGNE WEST jumped super in a race where 6 fences were omitted. Even with those fences I believe he would of won further. This is a horse going places and I will be watching with excitement from now upto the Cheltenham Festival. Like I said in the statement above ‘as long as he jumps he wins its as simple as that’. That is how confident about this horse.
3:00 Neptune Investment Management Novices Hurdle
PORT MELON ran in this very race on his debut for Paul Nicholls last season and ran a cracker to finish 3rd getting beat by 2 good horses in Creepy and Timesremebered. He travelled smoothly throughout the race and actually looked the winner 2 hurdles out but put in some sloppy jumps which basically cost him the race. You can forgive those errors as it was his debut and if I am being honest the field don’t look as strong as it did last year. He would of learned a lot over the break and I reckon he would of summered well. He went off 7/2 for this race last year yet a weaker race and year under his belt he is available at 6/1. He also has weight in hand over the entire field. Bookies have got this 1 wrong.
CONCLUSION
Got beat by a very good performance by PARLOUR GAMES. Did travel ok for a long way but was simply outclassed. Will do a lot better over fences and needs a lot of growing up to do but could improve further next season when he jumps them.
CHELTENHAM PADDY POWER DAY 2
Great day today with CHARINGWORTH doing the business in the first and then CHAMPAGNE WEST scoring in the 3rd race. As stated in my write up as long as he jumped he would win I was that confident.
We have 4 races tomorrow.
12:40 Mallard Novices Handicap Hurdle
I have 2 selections in this race
EARTH AMBER has an absolutely amazing handicap mark judging on his flat mark of 96. He runs off 113 today which shows how well in he is as normally horses with that rating on the flat nearly always turn into at least 130 horses over hurdles. EARTH AMBER was last seen in the Cesarewitch but never had a chance with a very bad draw. He also contested a few Group 3s and run with credit. Although EARTH AMBER didn’t win after 2 attempts over hurdles last season I believe their is a lot of improvement to come and should and will make a mockery of this handicap mark as Nicky Henderson knows the time of day in handicaps like this. Its a poor field where I would say only 4-5 have a chance so I am happy with the 6/1 available.
CHESTERFIELD was impressive when winning at Huntington last time out and I thought he jumped really well which will be a great attribute in a race like this. Was a decent performer on the flat running to a mark of 89 and has improved with each run over hurdles. I like the jockey booking of Noel Fehily and although soft ground is an unknown he moves like a horse who appreciates a bit of cut. 8/1 is available.
CONCLUSION
The start of a great day. A lot people doubted CHESTERFIELD in the racing game because of the soft ground and they listen with their ears instead of making their own opinion. Basically CHESTERFIELD has a running action which is suited to soft ground as I stated above. Will now be stepped up in class and would be interesting where he goes next.
EARTH AMBER was disappointing but still has a decent handicap mark so I am intrigued about this one next itme out.
1:15 Cheltenham Club Novices Chase
I have 2 selections in this race
Although Kings Palace is a horse who is top of my radar this season I going to take him on at 5/4 especially was this is his debut over fences and will learn a lot today win or lose. Value is elsewhere.
CREEPY won here over hurdles last year so he has a liking to the track and is by far the best jumper out of all novices I have seen this season. If he can get a nice rhythm CREEPY can jump these into the ground as at least 1 or 2 are going to make mistakes and we only have 5 runners so the race should play to his advantages. He is in my 25 to follow and I believe he could turn into a dark this season. One thing I do know is that 6/1 is way to big.
KNOCK HOUSE is absolutely huge at 8/1 after the performance he put in at Fakenham on his chasing debut. He ran the whole way around with his ears pricked and was in love with jumping fences. When Brian Hughes asked him to quicken he took off and put the race to bed in strides. His form over hurdles was not to bad either with a nice 2nd to 1 of todays winners Champagne West on heavy ground and then ran in the Neptune Novices hurdle at the festival. The soft ground will be in his favour and like I said previously the 8/1 is to big.
CONCLUSION
A top performance from KINGS PALACE who is included in my 25 to follow so should be hearing a lot more about him this year. CREEPY fell but would never of won and KNOCK HOUSE was never a factor. The only race which we underperformed in really.
1:50 Murphy Group Handicap Chase
I have 3 selections in this race.
Last week I tipped up GOLDEN CHIEFTAIN but he fell at the first fence. I did really fancy him that day so it would be hard to go against him today. Here is what I said last week.
GOLDEN CHIEFTAIN is only 2lb higher than winning the JLT Handicap Chase at the Cheltenham Festival in 2013 so you have to feel he is handicapped really well on the performance he put in that day. Trainer has said he had his problems last year but everything has gone smooth this year. Ran a cracker on his first start last month at Cheltenham. He was still their with a big chance coming to the last fence but faded up the hill. Looked in need of that run but One thing for sure is it will have put him spot on for today. I am a very happy man at 10/1. He is available at 12/1 today.
SAM WINNER loves it here at Cheltenham and really showed his class last year with a 3rd on his first run here followed by a win reversing the form with Le Bec here again. He looked a top quality horse that day a horse who looked better than his current mark of 147. He then went to Newbury which was supposed to be a track which wouldnt suit but gave Smad Place a real run for his money. He followed this by putting in his best performance of the season when finishing 5th in the RSA Novices Chase. He was going as good as anyone that day but faded after the 2nd last fence. You can forgive his last performance in the Scottish National as I believe it was 1 race to many. SAM WINNER is available at 8/1 today which is a very fair price.
CAPE TRIBULATION has dropped right down the handicap from 165 to todays mark of 146. Thats a massive drop of 19lb from his Argento Chase win against Imperial Commander 19 months ago. I think the bookies are forgetting how much he loves cut in the ground and probably think he is a finished force. Malcolm Jefferson would not bring him down unless he thought he had a big run in him which a friend pointed out to me today about all his horses who run at Cheltenham. He has a lot to do to find his best form but I don’t think he has to find all of it to win this. 14/1 is huge.
CONCLUSION
For me this was the ride of the festival from Sam Twiston Davies on SAM WINNER. He was beign scrubbed along with over a circuit to go but just kept on finding. Considering this was of top weight and the ground was soft it was an unbelievable performance and it takes very fit jockey to do what he done.
2:30 Paddy Power Gold Cup
The big one of the day and I have 3 selections.
My first tip for the Paddy Power Gold Cup is the Nicky Henderson trained OSCAR WHISKY. Out of 13 runs at the Cheltenham he has won 5 and been placed 4 times. Things didn’t quite work out last season over fences but still managed 2 win twice at Cheltenham. Over hurdles he had a handicap mark of 167 and is rated just 156 over fences which could look lenient in the closing stages . Has was the Champion 2 and half miler over hurdles so I see no reason why he can’t do the same over fences and 10/1 OSCAR WHISKY is a top bet. He will also love the ground and as long as he has improved his jumping he will 100% be involved.
Philip Hobbs was in unbelievable form today so it is hard to ignore his runner PERSIAN SNOW who done well to finish runner up to Johns Spirit here last month. That should of put him spot on for todays test. He finished behind Present View at the festival but was travelling the better horse before getting squeezed around the bend coming for home. That combined with a blunder at the last put his chances to bed. I believe he is a late learner and a lot more is to come from PERSIAN SNOW. He has been raised 4lb of this 2nd her last month but I still think it is a fair mark. 14/1 is good value.
CAID DU BERLAIS form at Cheltenham is excellent with a 2nd a 3rd over hurdles both at the festival which shows how much he likes the track. These were also both in big field handicaps so big fields are no problem. He started his career over hurdles last season with a top performance at Exeter and he looked to have it all going for him. He flopped on his next start in a race won by Valdez but that definitely was not his true running. CAID DU BERLAIS then turned up at the festival over hurdles and put in a good performance to finish 3rd to Don Poli. The thing you got to ask yourself is what price would Don Poli on a mark of 143 which CAID DU BERLAIS runs off today. A lot shorter than the 14/1 available I can tell you that. Paul Nicholls put him back over fences in the Galway Plate where he was fair from disgraced in 7th and that was off a mark of 149 and he has now dropped 6lb to 143. He must have a big chance.
CONCLUSION
Another amazing ride by Sam Twiston Davies on CAID DU BERLAIS. I knew he was a head of the handicapper and I knew he liked the hill so all my thoughts came practice up that hill to end the day in spectacular fashion. OSCAR WHISKY also ran well in defeat off top weight. He stayed up the hill just couldn’t get to the front.
PADDY POWER DAY 3
What an amazing day yesterday with 3 winners all at decent prizes. CHESTERFIELD got us off the mark at a 8/1 with a great ride from Noel Fehily. Then the ride of the season from Sam Twiston Davies twice when he got SAM WINNER and CAID DU BERLAIS home to win. We also had E/W money on OSCAR WHISKY.
I was on course yesterday I got to say I absolutely cleaned up. Hence the late tips today. Well done to all who were also on doubles and trebles. Between the 200 full time and Festival members we must of absolutely smashed the bookies. The festivals have been great all season and although it has been hardwork with the number of members, I have really enjoyed helping and winning lots of people money. Its gives me great pleasure.
Today we have 3 races.
2:10 Racing Post Arkle Trophy Trial Novices Chase
COURT MINSTREL was by far the best hurdler in the field and has made a great start over fences with 2 from 2. Jumped ok here at Cheltenham in October and further improvement is to come. Has stiff competition from Vibrato Valtat but I think COURT MINSTREL has that touvh more class and with our selection at 7/2 you have got to be happy.
CONCLUSION
COURT MINSTREL was a non runner.
2:40 Shloer Chase
UXIZANDRE basically missed the Paddy Power Gold Cup for this race and I think that choice by Alan King will prove valuable and somehing we cant ignore. At 5/2 he is a great bet.
CONCLUSION
The best jumping display of the weekend without a shadow of a doubt. UXIZANDRE Never touched a twig and showed so much scope over the fences that I could of won. Nah not really as it was a quality ride by Gerraghty. Alan King will have some thinking to do of whether to keep him over 2 miles or 2 miles 5f as this horse will be even better on a sound surface.
3:15 Greatwood Hurdle
GARDE LA VICTOIRE ran a cracker at Aintree last month and bare a mistake at the last hurdle you have to think he would of gone close off top weight. He has decent form at the track with a couple of wins and although he has 11st 9lb to carry I think he has a big part to play. 16/1 is available.
REGAL ENCORE is the best handicapped horse in the race and a horse I have eyed up for this for a long time. He runs off a a mark of 130 and I believe he is absolutely thrown in. He must have a massive chance.10 is available
CONCLUSION
GARDE LA VICTOIRE topped off the perfect festival with a game front running performance and gave Philip Hobbs 6 winners for the week. Even Philip Hobbs couldn’t beat James Walsh who made it 7. Sorry guys had to get that 1 in.
Hope you all enjoyed this weekend and it shows you what we are all about. Without blowing my own trumpet I know I am the best out their and certainly the best value.
We will be back for the Hennessy Gold Cup meeting in 2 weeks but bare in mind if we do sell all 150 spaces at £52 for the year we will have no £5 spaces left.
Kind Regards
James Walsh