What an excellent Weekend for all JPW Members. We got off to a slow start on Saturday and could only manage CONEYGREE at an advised 7/2 and Calipto E/W who finished 3rd.
I thought CONEYGREE was amazing and connections have to seriously consider the Gold Cup after the way he demolished the field.
Sunday was an amazing day and was started with NICHOLS CANYON winning comfortably at 9/2. He was overpriced for a horse who has won 2 races with and ease and then fell at the 4th hurdle on his last start. NICHOLS CANYON now looks like going down the Neptune route but the Supreme Hurdle may also be an option at Cheltenham.
Our next tip REGAL ENCORE really improved for the step up in trip and on a handicap mark of 129 8/1 was a nice price. He won as he liked and its all roads too the Pertemps now where he should also improve for better ground. Depends what the handicapper does with him but he surely has a great chance after that performance.
APACHE STRONGHOLD battled all the way to the line and was another horse too big at 9/2 based on what he has done this season. He beat Valseaur Lido in what was a great finish and it is all roads to Cheltenham. APACHE STRONGHOLD now has the RSA or JLT too choose from. I would personally go down the JLT route which is over the shorter distance of 2m 5f but that race normally suits a horse who can also stay 3 miles like APACHE STRONGHOLD.
LORD WINDERMERE then gave us a small return for E/W money. Both our selections BOSTON BOB and LORD WINDERMERE will improve for better ground and must have an E/W chance in the Gold Cup.
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Below is the write ups which were sent out to all members this weekend.
We have 4 races tomorrow from Newbury and Warwick.
1:35 Warwick
UNCLE JIMMY makes his debut over fences today and without elaborating on what he has done and has not done, he is simply too good for this field as long as he jumps. When looking at the prices I was quite surprised he wasn’t favourite so I am very happy with the 9/4 available.
2:25 Newbury
TARQUIN DE SEUIL is all class and I think he will put his form from the start of the season behind him. Jonjo O’Neil is flying at the moment and his horses are in top form. TARQUIN DE SEUIL won last years JLT Novice Chase and at the start of the season he was talked of as a Gold Cup horse. Ok he has run 2 shockers but was fancied in the Betfair Chase on his last start against horses like Silviniaco Conti, Dynaste and Cue Card. He went off 9/2 that day and he was pulled up but the fact that he is available at 9/2 for this and gets weight from the field is beyond me. Todays field are not in the same class as those horses and if I am being honest todays field are behind TARQUIN DE SEUIL in terms of class. Our selection has run 1 nice race when finishing 2nd to Menorah at Wetherby and managed to finish in front of Silviniaco Conti that day. TARQUIN DE SEUIL also has form around Newbury when winning a hurdle race as a novice. Weighing everything up 9/2 is a cracking price.
As back up I wouldn’t want to be against CONEYGREE who although is a novice has done nothing wrong over fences winning twice. His debut was at this track where he won easily enough after 600 days off the track. On his next start he blew away the field by 40 lengths at Kempton and couldn’t of been more impressive. What was interesting was the times of his run against the time of the King George. CONEYGREE was only 4 seconds slower than Silvinaco Conti winning time which means he would of placed in the King George had he run in that race. Now this is thinking beyond the form lines but had he run with the time he put in what price would he be today for placing? Certainly skinnier than 7/2. This is a big ask as a novice but CONEYGREE has an excellent jockey in Richard Johnson on board and I see no reason why he ant improve further. He also gets weight from the field.
3:00 Newbury
If Sire De Grugy is going to get beat today will be the day. We seen this a few weeks back with Sprinter Sacre and I believe his trainer Gary Moore has left plenty of work in him with Cheltenham only a few weeks away.
I am going to write of UXIZANDRE form at Leopardstown over xmas as he run way below what he is capable of. Lets just pretend that run didn’t happen. On his previous start at Cheltenham he was excellent and jumped with exuberance. He beat Dodging Bullets fair and square that day and look what that horse has gone on to do. It is worth noting Barry Gerraghty was on board that day and is back on board today. UXIZANDRE main weapon is his jumping and I think he will put it to this field from the front and test what they have. In my opinion he is far to big at a huge 5/1.
3:35 Newbury
SIGN OF A VICTORY is held in high regard by Nicky Henderson and although he has to defy top weight I think he could be a bit better than his handicap mark of 149. He was below his ability when 4th to Faugheen at Kempton but that track was never going to suit him as I believe he is a better horse going left handed. On his previous start he put in a devastating performance without coming of the bridle at Ascot. After this race he was talked about as a Champion Hurdle outsider which speaks volumes about his ability. It will be tough for him with the weight but I would not want to be against with his price at 12/1.
CALIPTO will be a different horse today now he has had a breathing op and has a hood fitted. He travels so well through his races and his handicapped really well on 143. He has won twice around this track and also beat Activial with ease around here yet he is fighting for joint favouritism. He pretty much has everything in his favour aswell as being trained by Paul Nicholls. CALIPTO wouldn’t surprise me if he went out and done a My Tent Or Yours from 2 years ago and blew away the field. Not big at 6/1 but I can’t have him out of the frame.
Sunday 8th Feb
Some great racing from Leopardstown and Exeter today where we have 5 races which we will be getting involved in.
2:25 Exeter
A race in which I believe the winner will be coming from the bottom of the handicap.
REGAL ENCORE hasn’t quite reached the heights he was expected to after his 2nd in the 2013 Champion Bumper. I have to admit he has been a real disappointment but today he is stepped up in trip which I believe is just what he needs. He also runs off a tiny handicap mark of 129 and I have to say I know for a fact he is a better horse than that mark. Will Kennedy is on board and rides off a welterweight 10st 2lb. His hood has been removed which should help as will the good to soft ground. I expect a big run from REGAL ENCORE at a lovely 8/1.
MORITO DU BERLAIS will appreciate the good to soft ground and is a fast improving horse. He has been running well in some decent handicaps and his win at Cheltenham in November is holding up well with the horses who were in behind. He had another of todays rivals Knight Of Noir behind him that day and he has since gone on to run some nice races. MORITO DU BERLAIS should hold that form today and I can’t see it being reversed. Since that win our selection has gone on to be placed in 2 further handicaps where he went off fav on both occasions. Its the step up in trip today which will bring further improvement along with his low weight of 10st 3lb. Sam Twiston Davies is on board and I think he could be atouch better than his handicap mark of 130. 9/2 is available.
2:55 Exeter
This Veterans Chase looks a good race and plenty of value on offer.
GOLDEN CHIEFTAIN was in the winners enclosure at Chelenham Festival in 2013 when winning off a tiny handicap of 132. He rocketed up the handicap after that and has only now back on a winnable mark of 131 which is 1lb lower than when he won at Cheltenham. His season started with a decent effort in a Cheltenham Handicap as he was bang there at the last before fading up the run in. He then fell early on at Wincanton and was pulled up at Cheltenham but he would of hated the soft ground that day. Although this is a competitive race I think he has a touch more class than a lot of the field and I can see him travelling smoothly into the race. He has some good form around Exeter so the track will be no problem and the good to soft will help no end. He carries just 10st 9lb. 12/1 is too big.
BURTON PORT is a horse who on his day finished 4th in a Gold Cup and was just a neck behind Long Run in a Grade 1 at Newbury. He really is the class of the race but is getting on a bit at the age of 11. I believe he has 1 big run in him and he showed at some of his old form at Sandown last April when finishing 2nd in the Bet365 Gold Cup. He has been below par on his 2 runs this season but he has had his excuses. This race is a big step down in class and I wouldn’t want to be against him at 12/1.
2:15 Leopardstown
NICHOLS CANYON is 2 from 3 this season and 1 of those losses was when he unseated the rider here over Christmas. On his previous 2 starts he could not of been more impressive and showed what a good horse he is. This a top class horse who was purchased off the flat by Graham Wylie out of John Gosden’s yard. His rating on the flat was as high as 104 and he often contested group races rarely running a bad race. Willie Mullins has 4 entered in this but it is NICHOLS CANYON who holds the value at 11/2.
SILVER CONCORDE has not lived up to the hype this season when getting beat at this track over Christmas. The going was heavy which was against him so I am willing to write that form off. SILVER CONCORDE was the Bumper winner at Cheltenham last season beating Shaneshill who is highly rated by Willie Mullins. Our selection will need to put his best foot forward here and it is a tough ask but with being a former winner of the bumper who normally go on to do well over hurdles,I can’t resist a bit of the 14/1 available as that is way too big with just 1 bad run to his name.
2:45 Leopardstown
APACHE STRONGHOLD is a smooth travelling horse who put in a top effort last time out when running Don Poli all the way to the line. He jumped super that day and showed what a good horse he is. On his previous start he was beaten by todays favourite Valseur Lido into 2nd. He had his excuses that day as he was very novicey at his fences and must of hit about 6 fences. To still get 2nd after all those mistakes was actually a top effort. It will be hard to beat the favourite today but with a better round of jumping like he showed against Don Poli I think he could run Valseur Lido close and I know at the prices I would want to be on APACHE STRONGHOLD at 9/2.
3:50 Leopardstown
BOSTON BOB is a frustrating horse but no doubt he has ability. His problem in all start this season has been the Soft/Heavy going. Today the ground is a bit better which will be much appreciated. BOSTON BOB was good enough to win at Aintree last year and then return to Punchestown to win the Gold Cup. If he can recapture that form which is very likely after 3 runs this season he should be as fit as they come. 4/1 is available.
LORD WINDERMERE is simply to big at 13/2. He won last season Gold Cup at Cheltenham and although he has not looked anywhere near that form this season he is a horse who takes a while to get going. His trainer Jim Culloty would of been slowly nursing him along all season and will have him near his best today with cheltenham around the corner. The ground will also be suited. A horse I would want on my side at 13/2 rather than against. Big Value.
Good Luck
JPW Racing Tipster