The Racing Post Trophy
This weekend sees the The Racing Post Trophy take centre stage at Doncaster. It is the final group 1 flat race of the season and all racing enthusiasts will be keeping a beady eye on this event with the hope that we see a potential Derby winner in the making. The winner of this event usually goes on to greater success, just take Kingston Hill, Camelot, Authorized and Motivator for example. The Racing Post Trophy is run over a distance of 1 mile and this year sees 7 runners set to go to post. We take a look at some of the riders and runners below.
Foundation – Rated 110 (current best odds 1-1)
Foundation spear heads the market after his impressive win in the Juddmonte Royal Lodge Stakes last time out. He beat Deauville that day by ¾L’s and in all honesty I think that if they had run for another mile the distance would have stayed the same. Foundation looks the better horse to me and I for one can’t see that particular piece of form being reversed. One issue that Foundation has struggled with is the start or getting a good start and despite the fact he broke well last time out I wasn’t entirely convinced that his starting flaws had been totally banished. Even his trainer seemed a little surprised by how well the horse started. For me Foundation is too short and my worries about both the ground and his start are veering me away from this horse here today.
Deauville – Rated 111 (current best odds 3-1)
Deauville has progressed nicely this season as have most Aidan O’Brien horses and despite the fact he was beaten by Foundation and seemingly held by him it is interesting that Aidan O’Brien decides to run him against that rival again. I do believe he is better horse than we saw last time out and if Foundation does start badly then at the prices Deauville is a horse I would be interested in. We know he handles both soft and fast ground and with that in mind he should go well.
Johannes Vermeer – Rated 111 (current best odds 8-1)
For me Johannes Vermeer is the overpriced horse in this field. He ran a great race on his penultimate start when he romped home to a 1 1/2l win at Leopardstown. He then went on to contest the Qatar Prix Jean-luc Lagardere and wasn’t at all disgraced finishing 4th. That was a very hot group 1 and he was only beaten 1 1/2l, on that form he should for me be around a 3-1 shot instead of the 8-1 available now. At the prices, on the form and the ratings he looks a good each way bet.
Mengli Khan – Rated – (current best odds 7-1)
Mengli Khan is one of those horses in this line up that we could apply the ‘he could be anything tag too’. Nobody really knows how the form of his maiden win will stand in this competitive field and to me the bookies have just jumped on the Hugo Palmer band wagon. I can’t quite understand how a horse that has only won a maiden can be shorter odds than a horse (Johannes Vermeer) that went close in a group 1 during Arc weekend. One thing we do know about this horse is that he stays pretty well and he did quicken with real enthusiasm last time out. We haven’t seen the best of this horse yet that’s for sure however I’m afraid for me he is too risky a bet and in all honesty I do feel he will be outclassed in this field.
Tony Curtis – Rated 104 (current best odds 9-1)
Tony Curtis is a horse that I have been following ever since he won nicely on debut. I felt as though he had bags of potential then and he has lived up to that. He went close in a group 2 at Newmarket over 7f’s before he then romped home by 3l in a group 2 at Salisbury. That performance was very taking and he still looked a tad green once he hit the front. He beat Opal Tiara, Platitude and Hayadh that day and if I’m honest before I watched Hayadh run again on Wednesday, where he won easily I thought that the 9-1 available was justified however I am now questioning whether or not he should be much shorter. It takes a very good horse to win a group 2 by over 3l’s and he didn’t appear to stopping anytime soon. To me Tony Curtis may be the horse that has been underestimated by the handicapper and a mark of just 104 could be extremely lenient.
Port Douglas – Rated 96 (current best odds 14-1)
Port Douglas has perhaps been entered with the idea of a pacemaker in my mind, however I feel as though on form he certainly isn’t out of this event. He won a group 2 last time out and despite the fact he only won by 1/2l he beat a fair few good yardsticks in the process. He is a front runner and that may be his undoing in this more competitive field as the likes of Deauville, Johannes Vermeer and alternatively Foundation all like to come off the pace. Were he to place I wouldn’t at all be surprised and off a mark of 96 he isn’t badly treated so a good run could be on the cards.
Marcel – Rated – (current best odds 50-1)
Marcel is the rank outsider in this field and it will be quite an achievement were he to even get involved in this race. One thing is for certain and that is the fact that Peter Chapple-Hyam wouldn’t be entering him if he didn’t feel as though he had a good chance. At 50-1 he is easy to back however he is too big a risk in this very competitive field.
How we bet for The Racing Post Trophy? Johannes Vermeer is my selection for this race. He is way overpriced at odds of 8-1 and he looks a good each-way selection here.
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