Another Festival is over and I can’t help but think we were hard done by. We tipped up 36 horse’s this week of which 13 finished in the frame. That is just over 33% of all tip’s placed. Another 9 tips were a neck short to bringing us a return whether that be winning or placing for E/W money.
Those were the fine margin’s and although we came away with a loss I don’t think that loss will show a true reflection of how close we were.
Anyway we lose a notch off our fantastic festival record and are now 27/33 in profit.
The week saw us in the winner’s enclosure 3 time’s and a further 8 finished in the frame for E/W money.
Hand’s up I am disappointed but for those of you who are new to JPW I hope you can see past the result’s and actually a hell of a lot of work goes into the selection’s at JPW Racing Tipster.
A full explanation is given and win or lose the homework is done. Take Goodwood away our festival record is one that I am proud of with 27 of the 33 bringing profits.
Next up we have the York Ebor Festival which get’s underway on the 17th August and runs for 4 days. It is one which has brought us decent profits in the last 2 season’s and is actually one of my favourites.
Feel free to sign up for the whole 4 days at www.jpwracingtipster.com for £8.99 where we will be looking to get back to winning ways.
For those who want to join the service on a full time basis we offer a NEW FIRSH MONTH MEMBER package for £15. This will include the York Ebor Festival so for the extra £6 you also get a month worth of tips. All my results can be seen via the website.
Now on with the review where we have gone through every race we tipped in and bring you a conclusion at the end of the race. We have also included horse’s to follow at the very end of the email.
Win or lose this review is still part of my service which hopefully shows you the passion we have and will to succeed.
Qatar Festival Day 1
2:00 Matchbook Betting Exchange
TIPS = OASIS FANTASY 2nd, STARS OVER THE SEA 3rd, BEST OF TIMES 5th.
Mark Johnson has dominated this race in recent years and he continued his success with Fire Fighting. The winner was actually there to be backed but this was his 19th start of the season even I thought it was a race too many. We had to settle for 2nd with OASIS FANTASY getting beat by a neck. Had the gap appeared a bit earlier I believe we would’ve had the winner. Nonetheless it was a profitable start with STARS OVER THE SEA getting 3rd for more each money. We were actually pretty close to getting 2nd, 3rd and 4th with BEST OF TIMES coming home in 5th.
CONCLUSION: Fair play again goes to Mark Johnson with 1st and 3rd. I couldn’t take any of the first 4 home into consideration next time as the handicapper will likely punish them but BEST OF TIMES should come down 1lb or 2lb following that. He travelled really well into race but just didn’t find at the end with the weight becoming a problem. One I will be keeping a close eye on.
2:35 Qatar Vintage Stakes
TIPS = THUNDER SNOW 2nd, MEDIEVAL 8th.
Take nothing away from the winner he was simply in a league of his own and will improve further as the season goes on. Of our 2 selection’s THUNDER SNOW ran a great race to finish 2nd for place money. We advised him at 12/1 but he went off 13/2 when subject to a gamble. MEDIEVAL just looked very green and I won’t be rushing to back him again.
CONCLUSION: The only horse to stand out was the winner WAR DECREE. He could be a real nice horse and surely the 2000 guineas must be on the agenda next season. Our selection THUNDER SNOW looks to be a better horse on faster ground and breeding suggests a step up in trip will be appreciated.
3:10 Qatar Lennox Stakes
TIP = DUTCH CONNECTION 1st
What a performance and what a ride DUTCH CONNECTION was given by James McDonald. I was supremely confident going into the race as I know the horse needs fast ground which was exactly what he got. He looked a proper Group 1 horse. Group 1 is the only way to go with him now and if the ground comes up Good To Firm then he has a huge chance whoever he lines up against.
CONCLUSION: As mentioned above you can only take the winner out of the race and anywhere DUTCH CONNECTION goes and the ground is fast he enter’s the equation.
3:45 Summer Stakes
TIPS = HAVANA BEAT 13th, GOLD PRINCE 5th
Neither of our tips got into the race and the best we could finish was 5th place. The winner ELIDOR was there to be backed after running a great race the year before. The problem I had with the horse the weight he was carrying.
CONCLUSION: I wouldn’t be rushing to back the winner next time out and the one I would probably be interested in is QEWY. The way he finishes his races off suggests a step up in trip or least on a testing course is what is needed next time. HAVANA BEAT will come down further in the handicap which will make him look a decent bet but the horse does seem to have lost his old ability.
4:20 Weatherbys Private Bank Stakes
TIP = BLITHE SPIRIT 16th
Well our sole tip fluffed his start and that was the end of that. The horse I stated had the best start I had ever seen missed the break. You couldn’t write it. It was the first time he has ever done that so I was very surprised.
CONCLUSION: The winner BOOM THE GROOM was subject to a huge gamble from 16/1 down to 13/2. Given a great ride by Adam Kirby and was the fully deserved winner. Wouldn’t take anything out of this race going forward.
Qatar Festival Day 2
2:00 Matchbook Betting Stakes
TIPS = MOSCATO 8th, NO HERETIC PU, IFTIRAAQ 17th
Totally off target with this race I will be the first to admit. Such a shame to see a previous winner of our’s NO HERETIC fatally injured, my thoughts are with the trainer and owner’s. MOSCATO looked a bit tired and this was probably down to 3 races inside 5 weeks. He is a tough horse and I thought he would get away with it but it wasn’t to be. IFTIRAAQ well the less said the better.
CONCLUSION: STAR RIDER stayed on really well and looking back her form at Goodwood tied in with this win. The horse to take out of the race was the fast finishing OCEANE who will go into everyones notebook. It won’t be going into mine though as next time every Tom, Dick and Harry will be on likely going off false favourite.
2:35 Beringice Stakes
TIP = SHOGUN 3rd
We made a small profit in the race SHOGUN finishing 3rd. He was staying on at the line and saw the trip out really well. A step up in trip should help the horse. Take nothing away fro the winner ULYSSES fully deserved.
CONCLUSION: I don’t think I will take anything from the race as the winner will find it tough against better opposition next time out and nothing in behind will be going into my notebook.
3:10 Sussex Stakes
TIP = AWTAAD 8th
AWTAAD never looked comfortably on the ground. I new the front 2 would be hard to beat but on all no form the value had to go with AWTAAD for me. He just didn’t travel a yard and was probably given the wrong tactics by his jockey trying to go with Galileo Gold.
CONCLUSION: Nothing to split THE GURKHA or GALILEO GOLD that one a piece now. Would be nice to see the pair meet again. I was impressed with the way RIBCHESTER finished his race staying on all the way to the line. A step up in trip could be the answer to him.
3:45 Molecomb Stakes
TIP = GLOBAL APPLAUSE 3rd
Probably my worst defeat of the week personally as going into the race I was supremely confident but GLOBAL APPLAUSE just looked flat. The winner did break the track record so our selection was beaten by a stunning performance.
CONCLUSION: YALTA broke the track record for 2 year old’s in a devastating performance. Looking back he was actually there to be bet with how keen he is to get on with things. It is all good looking back and saying he was there to be bet but this is part of the game. Its what you do with information to improve your game is what matters and this race is a learning kerb for me with future selections and how I read a race.
TIP = BALLYCASEY 3rd
Given a great ride by Ruby Walsh from the front but we had to settle for E/W money with him finishing 3rd.
CONCLUSION: LORD SCOUNDREL WAS 25/1 in the morning of the race and it goes to show what happens when the money comes in Ireland. I think BALLYCASEY is still on a dangerously low mark and I will watch where he ends up next.
Qatar Festival Day 3
2:00 Matchbook Betting Exchange Stakes
TIPS = STARGAZER 3rd, HIGH SHIELDS 9th
We were so close to the winner here with STARGAZER going down by a neck. Ryan Moore just couldn’t get him going quick enough and he had to be moved to the outside. With a clear passage I have no doubt we were on the winner. HIGH SHIELDS should’ve gone from the front so was surprised when they didn’t take up these tactics.
CONCLUSION: The winner is improving and bearing in mind it was only his 3rd start he could be one to keep an eye on. I still take STARGLAZER as the one to follow from the race and would even suggest 1m 4f brings out further improvement in the horse.
2:35 Qatar Richmond Stakes
TIPS = MEHMAS 1st
It was great to have our nap of the week MEHMAS doing the business. How tough is this horse he just keeps sticking his neck out. Blue Point is highly thought of and could improve on this performance but it is the attitude of MEHMAS which really sticks out for me. Fast ground and you have a serious horse on your hands.
3:10 Goodwood Cup
TIP = SWORD FIGHTER 5th
SWORD FIGHTER put in a decent effort and I thought the lightweight was going to win it in the final 2 furlongs but age probably went against him. A bit more experience would’ve done the job. BIG ORANGE was a really good winner and I don’t say it often but was given a great ride by the inconsistent Jamie Spencer. PALLASATOR also travelled with real menace and on fast ground could be one to follow.
5:30 Tatler Stakes
TIP = LATHOM 5th
LATHOM ran a cracking race but lacked any cover. Finished 5th just outside the places but I am sure he will be winning soon.
CONCLUSION: Fast ground I will be sticking with LATHOM but KASSIA seems to be a horse putting his best foot forward this year with some consistent efforts.
4:45 Galway Hurdle
TIPS = HIDDEN CYCLONE 2nd, BAMAKO MORIVIERE 12th
So close to a lovely 25/1 winner which then puts us in profit for the festival. Fine margins. Another stride he was there but it wasn’t to be. Excellent effort for a horse who is getting on a bit and decent training performance by Shark Hanlon.
CONCLUSION: CLONDAW WARRIOR a horse we have backed so many times won with a great ride by Ruby Walsh. Just beat our tip HIDDEN CYCLONE. TIGRIS RIVER is the one to take out of the race for me. His handicap mark should come down for that and the way he was supported tells me he is ready to win with.
Qatar Festival Day 4
2:00 Betfred Glorious Stakes
TIP = MOUNT LOGAN 6th
A poor effort from MOUNT LOGAN who lost his unbeaten record at Goodwood. Should be making the frame at least in a race like this, but was very poor.
CONCLUSION: KINGS FETE is a horse improving fast and considering he was off the track for 2 years before this season is a great training performance. This horse still has plenty to offer and is a horse I will be looking at for future entries.
2:35 Bonhams Thoroughbred Stakes
TIP = THIKRIYAAT 1st
A great win by THIKRIYAAT and as I mentioned in the write up, the step up in distance done the trick. A horse to follow going forward and he is a very game horse with the right attitude. They hinted another step up in trip could help which I also mentioned in the write up.
CONCLUSION: A horse to be on the right side of. A horse who won’t win by wide margins but knows how to get his head in front. Wherever they go with this horse I will be keeping a close eye on THIKRIYAAT.
3:10 Betfred Mile
TIP = DONNCHA 3rd
DONNCHA done nothing wrong in defeat. A very consistent horse who keeps bumping into one to good. Surely he will have his day soon.
CONCLUSION: The winner FRANKLIN D is on the upgrade and will be interesting to see where they go next. DONNCHA will be winning soon I am sure of that as he always runs a decent race and one of these days it is all going to go to plan.
3:45 Qatar King George Stakes
TIPS = EASTON ANGEL 4th and MUTHMIR 6th
A great performance from the winner but I do feel EASTON ANGEL was a tad unlucky. The gaps kept closing for Paul Mulrennan and I do think he should of had her a bit closer and ready to pounce. She is on the upgrade massively. MUTHMIR seems to be going backwards. He beat the winner giving it 3lb last year but was well beaten this year.
CONCLUSION: EASTON ANGEL is the one to follow here. She will be winning races and the Nunthorpe looks likely to be her next target.
Qatar Festival Day 5
2:00 Stewards Sprint Stakes
TIPS = SOIE D’ LEAU 7th and BARNET FAIR 18th
BARNET FAIR was terrible and couldn’t find the form of the previous 2 years. I thought SOIE D LEAY put in a sound effort to finish 7th and looked like he was going to kick on at one stage. The winner HOOF IT was there to be bet as a previous stewards cup winner but i didn’t think he was capable at the age of 9.
CONCLUSION: Not much to take out of the race really for me. I think NUNO TRISTAN is the consistent type and as long as the handicap mark stays the same he could be running well next time out.
2:35 Qatar Handicap
TIPS = KNIGHTS TABLE 9th and JAAMEH 4th
Another race where we narrowly missed out with JAAMEH finishing just outside the places. He came with a fast run not he outside but just couldn’t get to the leaders. KINGHTS TABLE run no race at all.
CONCLUSION: The race was won by the best horse in the race in my opinion after watching the replay. Wouldn’t take anything out of the race though.
3:45 Stewards Cup
TIPS = GROWL 4th, KIMBERELLA 13th and JAMESIE 9th
We were so unlucky again with GROWL who came home a fast finishing 4th. If the gap opened earlier for Ryan Moore he looked to have plenty left in the tank. The other 2 run no sort of race.
CONCLUSION: DANCING STAR has improved all season and is doing very well for a 3 year old. The horse to take out of race is GROWL and the Ayr Gold Cup looks likely to be the race they will target.
HORSES TO FOLLOW:
BEST OF TIMES
I hope you enjoyed the review and don’t forget the next Festival is at York starting 17th August. Get involved now by signing up for 4 days of top class action ONLY £8.99. A full race preview is included in every race we tip in making it excellent value for money.
JPW Racing Tipster