RACING POST TROPHY with Architect Tips
Here we are with the final group 1 race of the British Flat racing season. We have some of the highest quality two year old’s competing to establish themselves for next season for potential trips to the Epsom Derby or 2000 Guineas.
Doncaster is known as a hard course to predict with plenty of shocks appearing in this contest like Marcel who won last year at 33/1, as well as high class stars coming out to being a revelation for their team the following season.
All eyes on…
However, all eyes will be geared up on Aidan O’Briens runners with his team winning this contest 7 times over the last 19 years with horses who have gone on to competing in the following years group 1 races all season round. One of my favourite horses Camelot, won this impressively before going on to win the Epsom Derby with the triple crown at his mercy in the St Leger. That result shocked the world as Encke won at 25/1. He got first run and Camelot made up so much ground with major traffic problems but went down all guns blazing to finish 2nd.
The reason I mention Camelot is because the RACING POST TROPHY is where it all began for that horse and Aidan O’Brien has a strong hand in the contest this year headed by the odds on favourite Yucatan.
Things to be wary of for the contest is over the last 10 years, no horse has won the race having had 4 or more runs or being beaten twice which simply writes off half of this years field alone!
Here we will pinpoint our main contenders we feel have strong credentials and also those who we feel out of their depth. We are represented with quality sorts such as Qatar Prix Jean-Luc runner up Salouen and Champagne Stakes winner Rivet. I did like the look of Capri but sadly didn’t make the declarations
Lets look into the race with more detail.
BAY OF POETS looks to represent team Godolphin with William Buick looking the likely partner. This horse has had three runs to date and has already been beaten in much weaker contests including when finishing last on his last start, which was too bad to be true. This is a big rise in class for a horse who simply hasn’t shown enough to suggest Bay Of Poets is good enough to win a group 1 contest with no proven turf form.
RIVET is an interesting runner who has made the right impression, especially the way the horse dispatched a good field at York. Rivet finished that race strongly and I think this extra furlong will suit to every degree. Wasn’t at his best when just holding on to win the Champagne Stakes but William Haggas felt the horse wasn’t fully fit. He then run a very flat in the Dewhurst Stakes, but stil not beaten far. Rivet could easily have been troubled with the dip at Newmarket where so many fail to fire. I think Rivet can easily be given another chance on a course which I feel is more comfortable to the horse and should put up a bold show with plenty of potential to be unlocked.
BRUTAL is the sole raider for Ger Lyons who has had a terrific season and I do feel is a little overpriced here considering his run last time out when destroying Finn Mccool who runs in this also, by 9 lengths, without breaking sweat. Prior to that, Brutal had run well three times over 7f finishing those contests strongly. When stepped to 1 mile last time he showed huge improvement, winning like a true group performer which clearly suited the horse and attends the same distance here. Looks a proper miler this horse and I wouldn’t be surprised if this horse went close to winning or being in the frame at massive odds.
SALOUEN deserves to be in the line up for sure after finishing 2nd in a group 1 over in France but was possibly flattered the way the race panned out. Has also been exposed on six occasions at a much lower level which is worrying for followers as I feel the same fate will happen again here. I will be surprised if the horse is good enough to win against more improving rivals here so we will pass over.
YUCATAN simply cannot be dismissed in my eyes. Yucatan won at the Curragh on second run against a smart field before finishing runner up to todays favourite Capri in the Beresford Stakes by only 3/4 length. He was beaten fair and square for which their is no obvious reason as to why the tables should be turned. Maybe playing for a place at best here unless the horse has dramatically improved but we will avoid at such a short price.
So where does our money go?
There are plenty of horses to like heading into the Racing Post Trophy but there are two that stand out for me in this contest starting with BRUTAL. He will simply relish 1m after a demolition job last time out. At generous big odds I expect the horses stamina to come into play and be thereabouts at the finish. RIVET looks a solid each way contender at the very least with the flat track and extra furlong to suit. Add in a patient ride by Andrea Atzeni and I think we have the attributes of a potential winner here.
Brutal – (0.5 pts E/W) 33/1 is available at Stan James.
Rivet – (1 pt win) 11/2 is available at various bookmakers.