The 2017 All Weather Finals Day – Our Preview
A truly terrific day of racing is upon us this Good Friday, it is of course All Weather Finals Day at Lingfield Park. This day has grown year on year and it does not surprise me that this year’s entry is by far and away the best we have ever witnessed. As always with AW racing the draw is crucial and throughout the day we will see it play a significant factor in the results. The day consists of 7 races beginning with a fiercely competitive apprentice handicap and that is where we will start this analysis.
1.40 – Sunbets All-Weather Championships Apprentice Handicap
A tricky start to the day as is the case with all apprentice handicaps. I’ve narrowed it down to just three horses but in truth I could give 7-8 a chance in here. First up is Suzi’s Connoisseur, a game winner at Newcastle last time out in what has proved a hot race to follow. He was produced perfectly by Oisin Murphy that day to win at the line. He has been raised 4lb which is a slight worry however you couldn’t ask for a better apprentice on board in the form of Aaron Jones. He has stall 6 which should be fine as long as he breaks away well. Next up is Holiday Magic whose form ties in closely with SC, he’s a likeable grey who usually races prominently. He has stall 3 which is a big bonus for this horse and with there looking to be very few pace angles I suspect Nathan Evans will fancy his chances. Third up is Forceful Appeal, he isn’t weighted to win however he has a very good claimer on board negating 5lb and the inside draw. If he gets a good tow into this he may just outrun his lenient looking odds. Others of interest are War Glory who set some good time figures last time out while I was hoping Baraweez would get a good draw because he has a fantastic chance.
2.10 – Betway All-Weather Marathon Championships Conditions Stakes
The marathon contest is always a race I love to get involved in, tactical pace is key and the ability to quicken turning for home plays a significant role. Look at the last 3 winners and all of them had winning form over shorter distances. With that be saying 4 horses really catch my interest. Watersmeet seems to be improving despite his age and he’s a horse with winning form over shorter. He quite clearly has tactical speed; one issue for me is the draw in stall 14. He likes to be handy so he will have his work cut out. Pinzolo is up next, he has winning form over shorter and has the draw in stall 2. He likes to be handy which makes his draw an added bonus. Levey will attempt to stack them up however his price lacks value from a personal point of view. I have two horses selected for the race and they make up my four however they will be kept a secret purely for my AW special members.
2.40 – 32Red All-Weather Fillies’ And Mares’ Championships Conditions Stakes
A 3 horse race for me with a possible slant towards it being just a two horse race. Ashadihan, Muffri’ha and Realtra are the three horses for me. It’s the most competitive renewal of this race I’ve seen and it wouldn’t surprise me if any of these horses were to win. With the draw and enlisted cheek-pieces Muffri’ha just shades it.
3.10 – Betway All-Weather Sprint Championships Conditions Stakes
The sprint race is always a competitive renewal and the draw in many ways decides the result. For me I want horses drawn between 1-6. Any further out and I tend to bypass them despite ability. Pretend falls into that category and although I think the horse has enough to win this his draw is very off putting. Lancelot Du Lac is a gallant old warrior who is always there or thereabouts at this level on the AW. He has stall 6 and for me rates a very solid contender. Mythmaker is all about speed, has stall 1 and will surely make the running. He has some solid form in the book and looks leniently priced while the likes of Kimberella a new recruit for Richard Fahey and Royal Birth who won the Hever Sprint stakes are others to note.
3.40 – Sunbets All-Weather Mile Championships Conditions Stakes
A potential group horse in the making runs here, Ennaadd has been lucky with the draw in stall 2 and for many looks to be the banker of the day. Roger Varian speaks highly of him and with horses like Postponed in his yard you quite simply have to take note. His form is very strong and he has done it with the minimum of fuss. I have no doubt he will have improved again since his last run and all the cards look to be in place for a big run. Others to note in a quality race are Sovereign Debt who has finished 2nd twice in this and the French runner Qurbaan.
4.10 – 32Red 3 Year Old All-Weather Championships Conditions Stakes
The three year old race is always tricky to work out and this year is no different. If the race were to be run over 7f’s Second Thought would be hard to beat and he may still prove that over 6f’s however it does put doubt in my mind at such a short price. Sutter County has landed the plum draw however he too has his quirks and can veer right at the start. I liked Tomily however stall 8 makes his life hard while Dubai One has to be respected with Ryan Moore booked receiving weight.
4.40 – Betway Easter Classic All-Weather Middle Distance Championships Conditions Stakes
The final race on the card and a great race at that, Convey comes here with leading claims after his Winter Derby victory and with Ryan Moore on board alongside stall 3 he looks to have every chance. Grendisar is an old stalwart in this race; he loves this race, this track and this distance. He hasn’t managed to get his head in front this year and it is slightly concerning that Kirby has switched to ride Battalion. Battalion is a classy horse in his own right and a lot will really depend on how he breaks out of the stalls. If he does break well his price may look a shade too big. Absolute Blast isn’t out of this either however she needs to find a yard with Convey and her chances haven’t been helped by stall 9 either.
Bonus Blog and Tip – 3YO AW Championships Conditions Stakes
In a rare bonus we have a guest blog this week from a Tipster currently trialing with us in a bid to become our 5th tipster. He lives and breathes the All Weather just like DG Tips and he’s compiled an impressive and detailed look at the 3YO AW Final. He’s also been generous enough to give all readers a free tip! Double trouble for you!
By the very nature of this race, there’s limited depth to the form of a number of the runners, and it’s not a race I’d be getting too heavily involved in from a betting perspective. There are some really unexposed types in here, namely the so-far outstanding 5/4f Second Thought who has 3 wins from his 4 starts – all three wins coming on the AW. Visionary (14/1) has only run 6 times and Dubai One (6/1) has just 7 runs to her name. Potentially the most exposed in here are Letmestopyouthere (25/1) and Major Jumbo (14/1) both with 18 runs apiece.
Arzaak needed nothing extra to break his maiden at Southwell on the last day in March this year, a race in which he won comfortably easing up well before the line. That race was over 5F, and in a much lower class, but he’s only up 5lbs for today’s race and he’s shaping up to be a decent horse. Although he hasn’t recorded a C&D victory yet, the time for his last outing, in which he placed 4th at Lingfield was 1m11.59s – a very respectable time and within 2 seconds of the C&D record.
Carlton Choice arrives here with two wins in the book for his last two outings. His last win, which came less than two weeks ago, was in a large field and this horse has already started to rack up a decent amount of prize-money and experience which will only stand him in good stead for Friday’s outing.
Letmestopyouthere really ought to make it onto any shortlist. However, he finds himself off of a very unfriendly weight today and looking at his form for this burden, he’ll will do well to mount any significant challenge. With 18 starts, he’s certainly not unexposed and so it is difficult to see him winning this off of this mark.
Major Jumbo brings form reading 2121 into today’s fixture and has done a lot of his racing off a very similar weight. The question we have for Major Jumbo is – how will his 5f form translate into today’s trip? My feeling is that he may well get caught by wanting to go a little early to the line. If he’s paced correctly though, he could be in a very good position come the final run in for the line, and certainly doesn’t lack any pace in the final run-in.
Marquee Club has a pretty busy career to date having raced 18 times already – the same as Letmestopyouthere. He’s raced and won at weights a fair bit higher than he faces today and this can only be a positive coming into Friday’s race. The question here is whether his busy career might have started to catch up with him, or if he’s the kind of horse that does well running frequently. He can also hang left or right, and he won’t have time to do that in this race.
Second Thought could not have better form coming into this race. From his modest number of career starts to date he’s only been beaten in one race, and that was only by 1l for second place. He seems to be more than comfortable racing around the weight assigned to him today, although closer inspection of the times he’s achieved reveals that he’s potentially coasted to victory in a couple of these. Winning that well with something in hand cannot be good news for the other runners, especially if he stays on properly through the line today.
Sutter County has found himself behind three of today’s runners in the last six months – including Second Thought twice. That said, he could possibly have been unlucky, finding himself beaten only by a neck at today’s distance twice – and racing of a much higher 9-8 in one of those occasions. I think his 2nd favourite position in the market is justified and maybe today he’ll be given an opportunity to reverse his results with Second Thought.
Tomily is the only C&D winner to start today’s race, and although he had Sutter County behind him in that win, the time wasn’t the greatest that day – potentially a result of such a small field size (5). A close third behind Letmestopyouthere last time out does provide good form coming into this race, and I’m sure he’ll run a good race today.
Visionary’s form of 131 would look better if the 3rd hadn’t come at today’s distance two months ago where he found himself behind Tomily. He shouldn’t have any problems at his assigned weight today, the main question though comes from his (albeit) limited performance over the 6f distance.
Wick Powell returned to winning ways when coming back from a break in the beginning of March. Two wins at this distance certainly helps his cause as does the booking of Adam Kirby. Certainly one to watch and good value at his current ante post price of 12/1.
Dubai One came back from a 117 day break to win by a neck over this distance at the end of March. The only horse racing off of 9-0 today he should have no problems with the weights, the only question coming is whether his winning times are going to be good enough to mix it properly in this field. Based on his previous results, I’m not convinced he has the pace required to win this today, but as with so many of the horses in this race – he’s unexposed and open to any amount of improvement.
The winner could conceivably come from many of these runners, but I wouldn’t be at all surprised if Second Thought went on to win this. Looking at the value in the ante post market Tomily 8/1 is my tentative selection. He’s got the recent C&D form in the book, has run well at or above the weight assigned today and already has a place in a Cl2 race over this distance. As for an outsider punt, I really think that Arzaak 66/1 is overpriced given his potential speed and could finish close to the winner today.
Tomily 8/1 (0.5pts e/w) Ante post market with Betway, 7/1 Generally Available