Punchestown Festival Review
Another profitable festival for JPW Racing Tipster, albeit just over 1 point profit but profit is profit and that brings our festival record to 48 from 57 in profit.
Before moving on I would like to thank you all for signing up and although it wasn’t our greatest festival in terms of profit we did have some decent winners along the way.
The next festival which is upon is the Chester Festival which gets under way on the 9th May and this is then quickly followed by the York Dante meeting.
Punchestown Festival Review
The week certainly revolved around Willie Mullins who came away with a monster 18 winners. Hats off to the trainer it was a tremendous performance and as good as Gordon Elliott has been all season, Mullins showed him who was boss at the Punchestown Festival.
Regarding our own performance we came away with 4 winners and 2 EW returns from 24 tips.
A strike rate of 25% but with a few below par performances and some unlucky stories it could’ve been much different.
I will now go through and review all the race that we had runners in.
Punchestown Day 1
Our Selection = VISION DES FLOS @ 16/1 – 0.5 PTS E/W
We took on the favourite Getabird as I thought he was too short in the betting. VISION DES FLOS ran a great race and was given a very good ride by Robbie Power. We done everything right apart from get the winner. Very unfortunate as it would’ve been a great start to the festival. We made a profit on the race which is the main thing but once again fine margins with VISION DES FLOS finishing 2nd.
I think this horse could be very good over fences next year and is certainly one to keep an eye on.
Our Selections = BEN DUNDEE @ 16/1 – 0.5 PTS E/W and BUNK OFF EARLY 16/1 – 0.5 PTS E/W
Neither got involved in this messy race. Neither were even put into the race. You need a bit of luck in races like this and both just didn’t get the room needed to make any sort of move to come into contention. I do think both are still handicapped ok and on current marks are capable of winning.
Our Selection = DOUVAN @ 6/5 2.5 PTS WIN
Un De Sceaux beat DOUVAN in this race and UDS is actually the 5th horse from the Cheltenham Festival that we tipped at the meeting and has since gone and won. Personally I couldn’t see it before the race but the usual UDS stayed on gamely. DOUVAN could not get to him. He made a few mistakes which cost him but even so credit where it is due to UDS who keeps producing it despite age caching up with him.
Our Selection = MONALEE @ 7/4 1.5 PTS WIN
MONALEE was a faller at the 2nd last fence while leading. We will never know if he would’ve won but personally I think he would’ve been very tough to get past. It was a race packed with incidents and Paul Townend made one of the biggest mistakes ever by swerving into Finians Oscar and taking him out at the last fence, while leading. He got a 21 day ban for dangerous riding and the eventual winner was The Storyteller. I feel we were very unlucky in this action packed race and a winner slipped through our hands.
Punchestown Day 2
Our Selection = POLI ROI @ 9/1 0.5 PTS E/W
POLI ROI was given a decent ride by Davy Russell and jumped well throughout. He simply was not good enough so no excuses with this one. An expensive purchase by Gigginstown Stud who has turned out to be a flop.
Our Selection = NEXT DESTINATION @ 15/8 2 PT WIN
Paul Townend really made up for his ride on the previous day on NEXT DESTINATION. The way he run at Cheltenham, he was sure to improve for 3 miles. He stayed all the way to the line and although he was only a narrow winner he was always doing enough. I think this horse could turn into a nice type next season as he has plenty of growing to do and plenty of scope.
Our Selections = KILLUTAGH VIC 6/1 0.75 PTS E/W and TOTAL RECALL 12/1 – 0.5 PTS E/W
KILLUTAGH VIC came home in 4th place just outside the places. I thought he was given far too much to do from the back and had he been a bit closer on the first circuit he would’ve placed. Take nothing away from the winner Belshill though. I thought he was a bridle horse who would not find anything at the business end of the race. I got it wrong as he came out a convincing winner.
TOTAL RECALL was a speculative bet and he seems to have felt the affects of a long hard season.
Looking ahead to next season, I can’t really take anything out of the race.
Our Selection = FELIX DESJY @ 10/1 0.75 PTS E/W
FESLIX DESJY came around the bend still travelling very well but found nothing at the business end of the race. A bit similar to what happened at Cheltenham and he obviously lacks that turn of foot. Over hurdles next season and a step up in trip. I think he will improve so I wouldn’t totally dismiss him into the future.
Our Selection = THE PAPARAZZI KID @ 25/1 0.5 PTS E/W
THE PAPPARAZZI KID weakened around 4 fences out. It was a speculative bet at big odds and he didn’t get involved.
Punchestown Day 3
Our Selection = BALBIR DU MATHAN @ 16/1 0.5 PTS E/W and TYCOON PRINCE @ 20/1 0.5 PTS E/W
Another race where we could so easily of had the winner. Cadmium was 3rd on my list for this race and just missed out on my selection process. Really annoying as he won at 12/1.
BALBIR DU MATHAN ran well for a long way but didn’t have the class to go with them when the pace increased. He was reasonably well handicapped but looked to be out of his depth here. When back down in class is one to keep an eye on in the future.
TYCOON PRINCE who was once so highly regarded was a huge disappointment. Not a horse I will be backing in a hurry again.
Our Selection = JOSIES ORDERS @ 7/2 1 PT WIN
When things are not going for you results like this go against you. A very tight finish with our selection finishing 2nd by a short head. Frustrating as JOSIES ORDERS looked the winner everywhere but the line. Furthermore he goes and wins easily 2 days later. At this point I thought it was not going to be our festival but we kept plugging away…
Our Selection = FAUGHEEN @ 10/1 0.5 PTS E/W and BACARDYS @ 4/1 1 PT WIN
The turning point of our festival as FAUGHEEN demolished the field by 13 lengths in what was the performance of the festival. He took the roof off and what a devastating show the old boy FAUGHEEN put on. I always thought he could improve for 3 miles and he did more than improve. I love a good racing story and the machine is back at a different distance of 3 miles. A joy to watch and looking forward to seeing how he gets on over 3 miles next season.
Bacardys could not handle the pace Faugheen had set and weakened quickly.
Our Selection = MINELLA AWARDS @ 16/1 0.5 PTS E/W
MINELLA AWARDS ran a great race but could only manage 7th place. The top weight told but after winning this race the year before, at huge odds of 16/1 it was worth chancing. A decent horse who will be in the winning enclosure next season once he has dropped a few pounds in the handicap.
Punchestown Day 4
Our Selection = KEMBOY @ 6/1 0.75 PTS E/W and DE PLOTTING SHED @ 12/1 0.5 PTS E/W
KEMBOY was smashed in the betting and was sent off 11/4 fav. We found the value the night before at 6/1. He was a very easy winner and you could see 3 fences out he was the winner. May find things tough next season as he will be a mid 150 horse. Willie Mullins often sends a horse to the Hennessy meeting and I think this could be the one. He won this off top weight and 2m 5f. He will have no problem with 3 miles and less weight to carry next season.
DE PLOTTING SHED was badly hampered 4 fences out and was quickly pulled up. After watching the replay I thought he was still travelling really well. We will never know but it is quite possible he would’ve placed in the first 4 home. I think he has a big race in him and I won’t be surprised to see him out over the summer on better ground.
Our Selection = GETABIRD @ 9/1 0.5 PTS E/W
This race was full of drama as Debuchet fell and badly hampered Scarpeta and our selection GETABIRD. Again I don’t know if GETABIRD would’ve won but he travelling like a good one, I can tell you that. He had a lovely run on the inside and at the time was travelling better than anything. He was sent off 11/4 fav so we found massive value at 9/1.
Our Selection = CAID DU BERLAIS @ 6/1 0.75 PTS E/W
We rounded the day off with a very easy winner as CAID DU BERLAIS won by 21 lengths. Again we found the value as he was sent of 9/2 and he put us in profit for the festival. It was an excellent ride by William Biddick who rounded off an excellent day.
Punchestown Day 5
Our Selection = APPLES JADE @ 7/4 2.5 PTS WIN
Yet again we found big value with APPLES JADE at 7/4 as she was sent off 5/6. I didn’t see her getting beat like this mind by Benie Des Dieux. She had every chance of winning coming around the final bend but was beaten fair and square. Willie Mullins confirmed why he is the master in the match up with Gordon Elliott.
Our Selection = FLETCHERS FLYER @ 16/1 0.5 PTS E/W
Another value bet as FLETCHERS FLYER was sent off 7/1 after we tipped at 16/1. One thing for sure is we smashed the traders at Punchestown in finding the odds in our favour. On another festival we clean up as we were ahead in nearly every race. FLETCHERS FLYER came home a gallant 3rd for E/W returns.
Our Selection = DIAMOND KING @ 25/1 0.5 PTS E/W
A very poor showing from DIAMOND KING who was pulled up 3 hurdles out. A bad tip and I will hold my hands up with this one.
We came away with small profit for the week and 4 winners at odds of 10/1, 6/1, 6/1 and 15/8. Our two E/W bets were both at 16/1.
Although we came away with small profit, I can’t help but think we were unlucky not to come away with more.
Vision Des Flos nearly slipped the field in the first but had to settle for 2nd.
Monalee was still travelling and it would’ve taken a good horse to pass him had he not fallen.
Josies Orders was done by a short head.
Getabird was still travelling really well when a horse fell in front of him. Once again I am sure he would’ve gone very close and at the very least got us place money.
One area I am very happy with is the ability to find the value and beat the traders. In this game you have to have the edge over the bookies to make it pay long term and this week we done that with 90% of our horses.
Chester Festival next which is followed by the York Dante the week after.
We finished April with 21 points profit and we are now 4 months from 4 in profit.
May is a big month with the Guineas on the weekend followed by festival after festival.
I hope you all enjoyed the Punchestown Festival and the work that goes into each and every tip.
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