Mid Year Review
So far we are 6 months from 6 in profit and currently 60 points profit throughout the year.
Things have been steady and on the whole I am happy with the consistency but at the same time feel it could and should be more. Something I will be working even harder to produce in the second half of the season.
We have had some big highlights throughout the year so far and some things have also not gone our way but that is Horse Racing.
We will remain professional and disciplined and secure our 10th consecutive year of profit.
We are fully committed and work hard; and the determination to beat the bookies remains.
We are now reaching the peak of the flat season with the Newmarket July Meeting and Glorious Goodwood fast approaching.
So much profit is available and July and August are easier months to make profit on the flat.
With great staff behind the scenes to look after things while I can use my knowledge and skill to pick big priced winners it is time to up the game into the second half of the season.
Here are the states and a few highlights from the first half of the season:
Stats for the year to 30 June
Profit to £10: £627.77
Return on investment: 10.93%
Win rate (excl each way): 16.09%
Some of our biggest winners of the year so far
17:35 Ascot – Jersey Stakes – EXPERT EYE 12/1 – 0.5 POINTS E/W
No matter which angle I try I can’t get MARMELO beat. This could quite easily have run in the Gold Cup at Royal Ascot but instead is happy to run here in the Listed Race. I have no doubt MARMELO is a Group horse and the other will struggle against a horse of his quality here. He was 2nd to the classy Variziabad last time out and only beaten a neck. That horse is 3rd favourite for the Gold Cup next week. MARMELO was also sent of favourite for the Melbourne Cup when he finished a respectable 9th of 23. His last 5 starts have been in either Group 1 or Group 2 and he is sure to come on for his 2nd 3 weeks ago. I think he should be around the 6/4 mark so 9/4 s great value. WIN.
14:25 York – ABOVE THE REST 16/1 – 0.5 POINTS E/W
The same applies for ABOVE THE REST who is way overpriced at 16/1. He finished 4th in this race last year just behind Salateen. He also likes to be prominent. He carries 10st today so is up 1lb from last year but other than that tiny difference nothing has changed from last year. He comes here a fit horse and has dropped down the handicap from 107 to todays 104. He was the winner of the Bunbury Cup after finishing 4th in this race last year. The Bunbury Cup was his 5th start of the season and today this is his 5th start of the season. He may just need a few runs to get in peak condition. The 16/1 on offer is a great E/W bet.
16:30 Epsom (Epsom Derby) – MASAR – 16/1 – 0.5 POINTS E/W
I have gone with MASAR because he could slip the field from the front if staying as his breeding suggest he will. He is by New Approach who actually won the Derby so I don’t see why he can’t stay. He was impressive on his first start of the season when winning a Group 3 at Newmarket and then was 3rd to Saxon Warrior, only beaten 2 lengths in the 2000 guineas. If Buick can get his fractions correct he is a seriously good price at 16/1. E/W.
13:50 Newmarket – GIFTED MASTER – 16/1 – 0.5 POINTS E/W
I have put up GIFTED MASTER as I think he could have the run of the race drawn from in 12. He is a front runner and from a draw in 12 he should be able to bag the rail which will be a big advantage. He has his usual blinkers on and comes here fit after a run on the All Weather just over a month ago. This is actually his first handicap run which shows his class considering he has had 22 runs. 90% of his runs have been in Group 1s, 2s and 3s so this is a step down in class. He has top weight to carry which is not going to be easy but with a favoured draw and a recent run under his belt he may well get away with it. GIFTED MASTER was a Class 1 winner last August and has run some big races in Group company in the past. Will outrun his huge odds of 16/1 thats for sure and I am willing to take a chance despite the weight he has to carry. E/W.
17:30 Punchestown – FAUGHEEN 10/1 – 0.5 POINTS E/W
Is FAUGHEEN the same horse he used to be? No he is clearly not after his run in the Champion Hurdle. Can he win this race? Who knows what this 3 miles will do to him. He actually looked more like a stayer when winning the Neptune Novice Hurdle as a novice and he won’t need to use the finishing kick you have to use to win over 2 miles. We have seen over the years how 3 miles rejuvenates a horse and Jezki, Solwhit and Hurricane Fly all came back to win over 3 miles. I am not standing here saying he is going to win the race but I am happy to take the chance at a huge price of 10/1. E/W.
13:45 Aintree – Gaskells Handicap Hurdle – MR BIG SHOT 10/1 generally (6 PLACES) – 0.5 POINTS E/W
We were on MR BIG SHOT at Cheltenham and I thought he ran a fair race to finish 10th of 23 on his first start for 345 days. He is sure to come on massively for that run off the same handicap mark. He is up in trip which is quite intriguing and just going by his breeding, I am sure he will relish this test. He is by Flemensfirth who’s horses normally absolutely relish testing conditions. I know the yard think an awful lot about the horse and after having a nice blow at Cheltenham should be spot on for this. E/W.
16:05 Aintree – Topham Handicap Chase – ULTRAGOLD 20/1 (6 PLACES) – 0.375 POINTS E/W
First up we have ULTRAGOLD who won this race last year. He is 5lb higher in the weights this year but has since come back in December to finish 2nd in the Sefton Handicap Chase over these fences, on the same mark as today. He finished 2nd to Gas Line Boy who has a great chance in the National itself so it is top class form. Harry Cobden takes the ride again and ULTRAGOLD comes alive over these fences and I would much rather have a horse you know jumps these fences at 20/1, than trying to find a well handicapped horse. That is 20/1 for a horse who won the race last year and easily beat today’s favourite O O Seven that day. Why there is such a price difference I could’nt tell you but I am over the moon with the price. E/W.
5:30 Grand Annual Chase LE PREZIAN 14/1 generally – 0.5 POINTS E/W
LE PREZIAN was sent off 7/2 favourite for this race last season yet is available at 14/1 this year which makes no sense. Yes he didn’t feature last year but I think he is a better horse this year with much more experience. He has been in decent form this season which include a 3rd in the Bet Victor Gold Cup. He comes here bigger and stronger this year on a mark of 150 and should not be 14/1. E/W.
5:30 Cheltenham – MISSED APPROACH 12/1 generally – 0.5 POINTS E/W
3 Mile 2 Furlongs and it is going to rain overnight which means the ground will be heavy and probably the worst ground we have had since day one. I haven’t mentioned the ground above although I have made sure all horse go it, none of the races will be as gruesome as this.
I reckon you will see 5-8 finishers in this race with a lot being pulled up.
The two horses in this race who will absolutely love the ground are FINAL NUDGE and MISSED APPROACH. At the same you need horse int his race who stays 4 miles never mind 3m 2f and both horses do exactly that. MISED APPROACH finished 2nd in last year 4 mile race and needs testing ground, while FINAL NUDGE finished 3rd in the Welsh National over further.
I could go on and on about both horses but no need to really. Both stay forever both love the ground and both are well treated in the handicap. E/W.
2:50 Cheltenham – BLEU BERRY 28/1 generally – 0.5 POINTS E/W
Next up is BLEU BERRY who will be ridden by Paul Townend another master in these handicaps. You only have to go back to his ride last year on Arctic Fire to see how good he is at decision making and then in 2015 when Wicklow Brave won the County Hurdle. Two fantastic rides I am sure the horses may have lost the race had other jockeys been on board. BLEU BERRY ran up three consecutive wins last year including a Grade 2 at Fairyhouse. He was then sent to the Grade 1 Champion Novice Hurdle at the Punchestown Festival finishing 5th the likes of Bacardys, Finians Oscar, Death Duty and Let’s Dance. That is four high class horses so Willie Mullins obviously thinks this horse is talented. I think he could turn out to be better than his handicap mark of 142 and he has only been seen once this season when finishing down the field in a handicap at Leopardstown when travelling well before blowing up. He needed that run and the cobwebs will be blown off and I expect a big run here. Willie Mullins is a master at getting horses spot on for one race and again I think this has been the plan for sometime. Massive value at the prices. E/W.
15:40 Fontwell – DICOSIMO 11/1 Paddy Power – 0.5 POINTS E/W
I will start with DICOSIMO who used to be trained by Willie Mullins but changed to Warren Greatrex in November for owners Jill and Robin Eynon (same owners as Cole Harden). DICOSIMO has had 2 runs for his new trainer, one of which was a Grade 2 at Ascot and was way out of his depth. The other in a Class 2 Handicap Hurdle at Sandown. He was pulled up on his last start but judging by the Wind Operation just 11 days later he clearly had breathing issues. Now he has had the wind operation and 2 1/2 months to recover his handicap mark of 132 looks very winnable off. This is a horse who was rated 150 just a couple of seasons ago and has come down the handicap by 18lb. The jockey booking of Richard Johnson also looks very interesting. This is not the best handicap race and although he has to carry top weight, catching him first time up since his wind op, could be the answer. 11/1 is a big price taking everything into consideration. E/W.
14:25 Sandown – SUMMERVILLE BOY 16/1 generally – 0.5 POINTS E/W
I think SUMMERVILLE BOY is a huge price at 16/1. The favourite in this race is Western Ryder who our selection finished 3rd to at Cheltenham last time out. That day SUMMERVILLE BOY was sent off 9/4 and Western Ryder 5/2 so I can’t understand why the prices are massively different here with our selection only going down by 5 lengths. I don’t think Noel Fehily gave the horse a great ride either and we have regular jockey AP Heskin back on board today. He is the retained rider for Tom George so will know the horse well, having ridden in training and on the course. Whether he wins or not is another matter but one thing for sure is he is way overpriced. E/W.
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