National Hunt - WHAT WE LEARNED THIS WEEKEND 11/10/2019 - 13/10/2019

I will be going over what we learned this weekend but I firstly go over what I personally learned this weekend when it comes to tipping.

 

Most of you know already that National Hunt Racing is my biggest passion but this year more than the previous 11 years have told me that I really do not like the midweek flat racing and I think for the first year ever, it has had a knock on affect with my results when it comes to the quality flat racing.

 

I do really enjoy the big flat festivals and the big Saturday and Sunday’s but it is the gap in between which I am not at all passionate about.

 

For that reason next season I have decided that I will only be tipping at the big festivals and weekends on the flat. I have built both JPW Racing Tipster and Tipsters Empire on honesty and it would not be fair to go another season if my heart was not in the flat season full time. I know I absolutely love the big festivals and that will ensure I can concentrate on the better racing and increase the chances of making a profit. 

 

Anyway more on that in 6 months time.

 

One thing I guess you have all gathered by now is I live and breath National Hunt Racing and I am an absolute fanatic. It is where I learned my trade and I love everything about it.

 

Our National Hunt Season got off to a great start and since Friday we have made 6.7 points profit.

 

Our winners this weekend were Torpillo on Friday at an advised 17/2 who won in very good style. I mentioned in my write up, he reminded me of Bristol De Mai by loving the soft conditions and my thoughts were correct. Probably the easiest winner of the weekend.

 

Ballyoptic was another winner at an advised 13/2 and once again it was all about the test for him. I was supremely confident with a raised stake win and he also won pretty comfortably in the end. He jumped very well which is something which has let him down in the past.

 

We also came away with two E/W bets today with Gwencily Berbas finsihing 4th at an advised 22/1 and Movewiththetimes finishing 5th at 9/1 in the Muster National.

 

I am hungrier than ever to make this my best season to date and my aim for the season is 150 points profit. With 6 months and 3 weeks to go we have 143 points to go after this weekend.

 

If you are not already part of our service it is time to get involved. You are in for a treat this season and I am fully focused on delivering.

 

I am going to go over some performances this weekend which caught my eye, some for winning and some who I will be keeping an eye on.

 

 

I listened to an interview from Fergal O’Brien on Friday afternoon, where he was asked about Jarvey’s Plate chances on the Saturday. He was not even sure if he was going to run given the forecast of rain. He mentioned it being the perfect start with only four runners but the ground was clearly a big problem for him with the horse.

 

They decided to run him which paid off but to win on ground which he would have hated was a testament to the horses ability. He beat a good horse in Reserve Tank who won two Grade 1s last season and according to Collin Tizzard, was the next superstar. What impressed me most about Jarvey’s Plate was what he done off the bridle. He kept on under pressure and a drive from Paddy Brennan. In fact he jumped better when asked the question and over fences and an undulating track like Cheltenham, it will really suit. I remember last season he done the same at Cheltenham in a novice hurdle. When asked to pick up off the bridle he went clear. 

 

He should be a better horse on better ground and is a horse built for chasing. He is one of interest for me given how easily he beat a talented horse.

 

 

Another Fergal O’Brien horse in Coolanly. He was given a very tentative ride by Fergal Paddy Brennan. He was sat at the back of the field and still travelling really well 3 hurdles out. Even when they jumped the 3rd last he was still travelling but Paddy Brennan never went to work with him. He came home in 7th without being asked a single question. Not sure what the plans are with him but he is clearly being saved for something. He should also be dropped 1lb or 2lb by the handicapper. A mark of 134 looks very attractive for this former Grade 2 winner. I imagine the plan is to go Cheltenham in November so be interesting which race given he won at the course last November. 

 

 

I was really taken with the performance of Thyme Hill and I thought he jumped very well on his debut over hurdles. It was the way he finished his race after the final hurdle which was a sign of a horse who would devour the uphill finish, at the Cheltenham Hill. He was 3rd in last years Champion Bumper behind Envoi Allen and Blue Sari which now looks even better given the horse wants further. I imagine next stop will be Cheltenham in November where he should run in the Ballymore Novice Hurdle on the Friday. I would be surprised if he wasn’t good enough to be very prominent in the betting come March, for the Ballymore Novice Hurdle. The Persian War Novice Hurdle has produced some good winners over the years that include, Reve De Sivola, Silviniaco Conti and Blacklion. I think Thyme Hill could be the next top class horse from that race. 

 

 

Surprisingly Paul Nicholls only winner of the two days. This is a fixture he normally does well at and I am sure he would have wanted more than one winner. His one winner was Silver Forever who I thought jumped very well. She was fast and slick over the hurdles and travelled with supreme confidence. You could tell from Harry Cobden’s body language that he knew he thought he was sat on a very smart horse. I think she has so much more to come and given Posh Trish won this race last year, you would imagine they will go down the same route, ending up in the Mares Novice Hurdle. It is really early to start talking about Ante Post Bets but she is 20/1 for the Mares Novice Hurdle in March with Sky Bet and Betfair. If she gets to the race in one piece she will be a lot shorter than that on the day, giving the talent she looks to have. She should rattle up a few wins on the bounce and it won’t be long until she is 6/1 in my opinion. 

 

 

It was good to see Vieux Lion Rouge winning in his 8th season in training. To keep coming back year after year is great to see and he thoroughly deserved his first win since 2017. A horse who has been so great for the game with 8 runs over the National fences and has never fallen. You can see why he deserved a win like this.

 

Lisagnar Oscar started off jumping slowly but warmed to the task on the final circuit. Looked to be travelling better than eventual winner and if it wasn’t for a mistake at the last, may well have won. At this early stage he looks a perfect type for the National Hunt Chase over 4 miles ( 3m 7f for the first time next year). Rebecca Curtis won the National Hunt Chase with Teaforthree in 2012 who was also sired by Oscar. She has another live chance here and the 33/1 looks way to big at this very early stage. 

 

We will be back next weekend with our 2nd edition of what we learned this weekend and we will be continuing this throughout the Winter leading up to March and the Cheltenham Festival.

 

I will not be giving away all my secrets as I will keep some for the paying members but I will happily point people in the right direction throughout the winter months.

 

If you do fancy getting involved, remember you can join the full National Hunt Package for only £89.99 using DISCOUNT CODE – NATIONALHUNT25

 

This package includes:

 

1. Daily tips over the next 6 months and 3 weeks

2. JPW 40 to follow ebook (release date 24th October)

3. Cheltenham Ante Post Bet (17 in total and 4 Lucky 15s, starting 14th November)

 

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