Tuesday 10th March

3:30 Unibet Champion Hurdle
SUPASUNDAE 11/1 generally – 0.75 POINTS E/W (4 places, 1/5 odds)

In terms of value, I would go as far to say SUPASUNDAE is one of my value bets of the week. This race is going to be run to suit. This is a horse who probably wants 2m 4f to be seen at his best as he does not quite get 3 miles and probably not quite got the speed for 2m, albeit he has run some terrific races over 2 miles, over the years. As we said this race is going to be run at a nice pace with at least two front runners, on soft ground, around an undulating track. It is a race which has every credential to be run like a 2m 3f – 2m 5f race. Stamina could come into play and if it does, SUPASUNDAE will play his part in the finish and devour the Cheltenham hill. I can’t actually believe that in what people a calling a poor renewal, this horse is not shorter in the market. You are talking about a horse who has run in 14 consecutive Grade 1 races. Of those 14 runs, he has finished 1st or 2nd 11 times. Six of those runs have been over 2 miles with his form reading, 112224. Hardly form of a horse who will not appreciate 2 miles. In those 2 mile races, he beat Faugheen (won a champion hurdle) and Wicklow Brave. He also finished 2nd to Buveur D’Air and Apples Jade over this distance. He even beat Buveur D’Air over 2m 4f in the Aintree Hurdle, a race run on soft ground. He has had one run this season when finishing 4th of 9 to Honeysuckle in the Irish Champion Hurdle 6 weeks ago and that was nothing more than a run to blow away the cobwebs. For a run to gain fitness he put a great effort in to go down by only 4 lengths and I expect significant improvement to come. He has clearly been targeted at this race all season, with no other race in mind. SUPASUNDAE also has festival winning form when winning the Coral Cup back in 2017 and then finishing 2nd in a Stayers Hurdle in 2018. It is all in his favour to be thereabouts, from the ground, to the pace, to course form. He has the lot and expect him to go off around the 13/2 mark with Robbie Power taking the ride. E/W.

5:30 National Hunt Novices’ Chase

CAREFULLY SELECTED 9/4 with William Hill and Unibet – 2 POINT WIN

I have tried and tried to get CAREFULLY SELECTED beat but I just can’t. Everything keeps coming back to him. This is a poor National Hunt Chase and he is the only horse who has any real touch of class, possibly a Grade 1 horse. Take nothing away from the field but they are all a bunch of handicappers in my opinion. The 2/1 available is a decent price as he could quite easily be around the 5/4 mark. A lot of feedback has been about his jumping but I don’t think that will be a problem especially with Patrick Mullins on board who is an excellent horseman. He has never fallen in his career in hurdles or fences, just making a few novice mistakes, as you would expect. This is a horse who was unlucky not to win the Champion Bumper back in 2018, just getting nabbed by the fast finishing Relegate. He made his debut over hurdles in March last year, following a problem, which he won with ease. He then went for the Grade 1 Irish Novice Hurdle at the end of April, over 3 miles, a race which was won by Minella Indo and Allaho in 2nd. Carefully Selected was just 3 1/2 lengths behind the winner and 1 1/2 lengths behind Allaho in 3rd place. Now imagine what sort of price either of them would be in this race, I would say odds on which again shows how good a bet 2/1 is. He has done nothing wrong in 3 starts over fences so far this season and is 3 from 3. CAREFULLY SELECTED is a horse who wants soft ground and wants a staying trip. For me he looks bulletproof, with the only problem that could get in his way is the jumping, but going a tad slower, I really don’t see it being a problem. WIN.