3:35 Newmarket (1000 Guineas)
BOOMER 14/1 generally – 0.5 POINTS E/W (4 places, 1/5 odds)
SUMMER ROMANCE 25/1 generally – 0.375 POINTS E/W (4 places, 1/5 odds)
UNDER THE STARS 25/1 generally – 0.375 POINTS E/W (4 places, 1/5 odds)
The big race and we have 3 selections against the field, all at nice prices. I believe the front 3 in the market Quadrilateral, Love and Millisle are there to be shot at. They range from 3/1 – 4/1 which is plenty short enough.
Quadrilateral if I had to pick between the front three would be my choice but against a field where I can see huge prices about some really progressive sorts, I will take her on happily enough. She was a Group 1 winner last season at this course in October. It was a good win but she did make hard work of it. A few horses went for home far too early and she just picked them up. She is the right favourite and I wouldn’t go as far as to say ‘easily opposed’ but I am happy to take her on at 3/1.
Love who is trained by Aiden O’Brien was 3rd behind Quadrilateral at Newmarket but she strikes me as an Oaks horse rather than guineas horse and wants further. You have to respect any Aiden O’Brien horses but again 7/2 and I am happy to take her on.
Millisle is a horse who I would ‘easily oppose’. I will probably get egg on my face for writing this but I can’t have her staying the mile with her breeding. She started her career as a 2 year old over 5f and ended up winning a group 1 over 6f at this course in September. Don’t get me wrong she was impressive but she is by Starspangledbanner (a sprinter) and her Dam only got a mile. I would normally side with more of a 1m 2f – 1m 4f horse in these types of races and I believe she will go to the front but get nailed inside the last furlong.
The same can be said about Raffle Prize whose stamina will be tested over 1m.
The three horse I am going to go to work with against the field are:
BOOMER who is trained by Tom Dascombe and is bred to get further. She is by Kingman (2000 Guineas 2nd, won multiple Group 1s) whose horses train on the majority of the time. She was a group 3 winner last season at Goodwood when beating Dark Lady (beat Millisle last season). She then went to Doncaster for a Group 2 and was beaten by just a length to a smart horse in Powerful Breeze in 2nd. Her final start was at this course back in October for the Group 1 Fillies Mile. That race was won by today’s favourite Quadrilateral but I do think BOOMER kicked for home too soon, setting the race up for others. She was travelling as good as anything, if not better, yet jockey Richard Kingscote decided to kick for home 2 1/2 furlongs out. If he held on to her that bit longer, the result may have been different. Inside the last furlong she had already used her kick so could not go again. She stayed on though into 5th, beaten 3 lengths. Obviously she is a horse who likes to be prominent and over the last few days we have seen, the track is biased to prominent horses. She is a progressive horse who has a lovely action and given she was only beaten 3 lengths to Quadrilateral last time out, I don’t see why there is such a price difference. With 4 places on offer she is very good value as I am sure if she was trained by one of the bigger trainers, she would be half those odds. E/W.
SUMMER ROMANCE is another horse by Kingman who is a breeding machine of high quality horses. This is a horse who is trained by Charlie Appleby and a horse I think will do very well as a 3 year old. She won two races last season and was then beaten in two group 3s at short odds. She looked to be crying out for a step up in trip as she didn’t have the speed over 6f, everything was a little too fast for her. Now up to 1m for the first time and a winter behind her to grow, I think you may well see a different horse. Even though she was beaten in a group 3 over 6f furlongs on her last start, she was sent off 6/4 fav. The race was won by Dark Lady with Millisle, who is fighting for favoritism for this race, back in 2nd. If you had asked me after that race last September, who would progress better when stepped to 1m, without hesitation I would have said SUMMER ROMANCE. How one is 4/1 and the other 25/1 is beyond me and I think she is massive value. Watch out for an alarming drift before the off as I would go back in at big odds on this one especially with 4 places on offer and William Buick taking the ride. E/W.
Our final selection is UNDER THE STARS who is by Night Of Thunder (won a 2000 guineas). Again she is bred to want 1m and further and the further she steps up in trip the better she will be. This will be her first time over 1m and I think it will end up being her optimum trip. She is trained by James Tate, again not regarded as a ‘top trainer’ but he is a trainer I have respect for. She was a 3 time winner last season and ran well when beaten in some top class Group races. She was beaten by Love in a group 1 at the curragh by 2 lengths, over 7f. She was doing her best work late and clearly looked like a horse in need of a step up in trip. It was surprising to see her go down in trip on her final start at this course last year, but she stuck on again doing her best work at the line. She also has good form at this course and was clearly trained with the race in mind. She was 2nd to 4th to Daahyeh (beaten 1 length) in a group 2 here in her penultimate start, once again running late on. If she progresses for the step up in trip as I think she will the 25/1 looks huge with 4 places on offer. E/W.