Royal Ascot Review 2020

 

From a tipping point of view, I feel the 70 day break has done me the world of good. JPW Racing Tipster has been operating for 12 years and with Horse Racing running a programme of around 363/364 days a year, it is a very intense game to be involved in. Breaks like this never come along and even if you do take a week away from the sport, I personally find myself still watching replays as ultimately I don’t want to miss anything which helps me stay ahead of the bookmakers and more importantly the traders. 

 

The 70 day break away from Horse Racing has certainly helped me refresh my brain and my new strategy going forward. I may be different from others, but I always think certain things happen for a reason, just make sure you use those times wisely. 

 

In my case I reflected a lot on my approach and turned those negatives into positives. Profit was never a problem as obviously you don’t stay in the game for 12 years if you are not making consistent profit, but we can always look to increase that profit.

 

In recent years and more so the end of 2019 into 2020, I found that my passion for weaker racing was on the decline, while my passion for the better racing at Weekends and Festivals was increasing. When I first fell in love with Horse Racing, it was all things horse racing, didn’t matter what, I loved it. These days I much prefer top quality racing and the lower level stuff, unfortunately, does not interest me as much anymore.

 

Ultimately this lockdown confirmed what I already knew, I really did not miss Horse Racing as a whole but instead I craved your big festivals and weekends and my passion for those bigger days are stronger than when I first started out, massively stronger.

 

Without blowing my own trumpet, I have earned quite a name over the years for how well I do at weekends and festivals so we decided to go back 5 years and dissect the results at Festivals and Weekends. It was no surprise that the results over a long period of time (5 years) came back very good.

 

Given over these 5 years I was running a service which also tipped in lower level stuff, it got me thinking how can we improve on the already excellent results at Festivals and weekends. By scrapping the lower quality stuff and mainly tipping at weekends and festivals, allows me more time to concentrate on the better racing, which means more preparation and more time studying which in turn has and will give even better results going forward.

 

Take this weekend as an example, Royal Ascot finished on Saturday with some decent profit, we had one tip Sunday, a nice winner at 7/2. I already know by looking over the cards and quality of racing, I have nothing until Thursday now. My heads have already in the books for three days, planning and preparing for Thursday. Profit has been made through Royal Ascot and Sunday and now I am already ahead of the traders by 3 days. I am also already ahead of the formbook for that better quality racing, as they will all be looking at your Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday cards, I have had 3 day head start.

 

I really believe our new approach is going to bring a huge yield and the return on investment will sky rocket. 

 

You only got to look at the results in 2020, where without announcing it, I was cutting back with midweek tips, pre lockdown. 2020 has been spectacular. 

 

We run six services which is mainly down to different customers wanting different things. Some like festivals, some like Saturdays and some want everything we send out.

 

This is a service which covers every tip within the Flat Season. This will mean that if we have a single tip on Thursday and Friday as an example, you will get it. Obviously things are early on in the Flat Season but so far with the new approach, this service is already 16 points in profit for the month and operating at a 19% return on investment.

 

The price for the remainder of the Flat Season is a bargain at £60.00 which takes you up until the 11th October, where we then start the National Hunt Package. We have five more festivals to come and 16 weekends during the course of the flat season, showing you just what a bargain the £60.00 is.

 

In 2020 we are already a massive 67 points in profit and operating at a 31.15% return on investment with our Festival and Weekends. We are flying along and this is our most popular service. As it says on the tin it covers you for festivals and weekends. We operate 16 festivals per year and will tip 52 weekends a year.

The service is a minimum 3 months with 6 months and 12 month subscriptions also available. 3 months start at £60 (£20 a month) with a bigger discount if you sign up for 6 months or 1 year. 

 

Another very popular service which has produced 49 points profit in 2020, operating at a ROI of 24.51%. As it says on the tin it covers you for Festivals and Saturdays. We operate 16 festivals per year and will tip 52 weekends a year.

The service is a minimum 3 months with 6 months and 12 month subscriptions also available. 3 months start at £55 with a bigger discount if you sign up for 6 months or 1 year.

 

This is a service which will cover you for all our festivals we run each year. We 

run 16 festivals each year and although you can sign up for them individually, you can save a massive amount of money but setting up for 3, 6 or 12 months.

We are now 7 festivals in a row with profit and 2020 we are 4 from 4 in profit, with 30 points profit in total.

The service is a minimum 3 months with 6 months and 12 month subscriptions also available. 3 months start at £39 with a bigger discount if you sign up for 6 months or 1 year.

 

 

This is a service which will cover you for 52 Saturdays per year. In 2020 it has made 27.5 points profit and a ROI of 36.06%. Like the Weekend Only it is a very popular service given the profit that it makes.

The service is a minimum 3 months with 6 months and 12 month subscriptions also available. 3 months start at £39 with a bigger discount if you sign up for 6 months or 1 year.

 

Quite a variety but we have services to suit everyone’s needs and all are very profitable. We have some big racing coming up over the next couple of months and I am determined to make this our best flat season to date, with a huge return on investment.

 

 

 

We will now go over every race that we tipped in and also some good pointers and some notebook horses for everyone.

 

 

 

We started the festival with 3 selections, finding E/W returns with Mutamaasik who I thought ran a great race. He was drawn in 16 and was in the lead coming to the 1f marker. He drifted to the stands side in the final furlong which given by the draw biased all week, he was obviously inconvenienced by the slower ground on that side. Mutamaasik is only a 4 year old who is very lightly raced and I still think he has more. If there was a horse I would want to take out of the race, it would be him.

 

Our other selections were War Glory who I thought ran a great race to come home in 8th, while Firmament was very poor and tailed in last.

 

 

The race which probably annoyed me the most over the five days, given Circus Maximus won at odds of 4/1. I wrote the night before when he was 9/4 fav, ” I would want odds of 10/3, if I was to get involved”. If he was 4/1 the night before he would have been a bet but I certainly didn’t see an Aiden O’Brien horse drifting out to 4/1.

 

Our selection Mustashry never got involved and is best watched for now. He is not getting any younger at the age of 7 and although you can expect some improvement next time out, I can’t see it being enough to match the new young brigade.

 

The horse to take out of this race for me was Terebellum who has only had 5 career starts. I would say 1m is the minimum he would want and would be better over 1m 2f. 

 

 

Frankly Darling just whoosh and Nap of the day was landed. She was exceptional given that she pulled in the first part of the race. As soon as Frankie Dettori pressed the button she was gone. She looks absolutely top class and is going to be very hard to beat in the Oaks.

 

 

I was keen to take on the favourite as I felt he was there to be beaten but it was never going to be with the eventual winner Pyledriver. Our selection was at the back of the field and took a while to get going. He just couldn’t pick the winner up who had already gone a few lengths clear. Not a race I think I will be following as a form guide going forward but I do think given the bad form that trainer David Simcock is in, our selection may be better than his actual showing in 3rd place.

 

 

We were taking a chance with Shades Of Blue trying to get Bataash beat but I felt the price of 33/1 was too big to ignore. Shades Of Blue outrun his odds to come home 6th of 11 but nothing was beating Bataash that day. He just beat the whole field with ease. This year I can’t see any dangers in this country over 5f and he should be mopping up all the sprints in the UK with ease. 

 

 

We picked up E/W money with Queen Power coming home 3rd. We put her up at 6/1 and she was a big gamble going off 3/1 favourite. Fair play to the winner Nazeef who stuck on gamely to lead in the final 100 yards. Queen Power was beaten a few lengths but it was E/W money returned. 

 

 

Ryan Moore gave her a great ride and she was travelling better than anything coming around the home turn. She kicked on by a couple of lengths and looked to have the race won, but for Coeur De Lion to come with a late run and win by a length. I think the weight probably told in the end with Verdana Blue carrying 9st 10lb and Coeur De Lion 8st 10lb. A whole stone over 2m 4f is a lot to give away. I think Verdana Blue will be trained for the Cesareswitch at Newmarket in October. That is where I would be heading with her anyway.

 

A day where we were knocking on the door. We had one winner, three 3rds and a 2nd from the 7 races we tipped in. Our horses were running well enough so it was only a matter of time.

 

 

 

We had too settle for 2nd and 3rd in this race despite Salayel looking the winner everywhere but the last 100 yards. Sir Busker came with a very late surge and once again we nutted near the line. I think Salayel could be one to follow given her form behind Nazreef on her penultimate start where she was green as grass. She is lightly raced and certainly a horse going in the right direction.

 

Our other place was Alternative Fact who kept on gamely for 3rd under a Frankie Dettori ride. This was short of his best trip and I expect him to improve when stepped up to 1m 2f on his next start, depending what the handicapper does to him.

 

Our final selection was Zhui Feng who once won the Royal Hunt Cup but looks massively on the decline now and will not be picking up any big race wins on this evidence. 

 

 

Yet another place with Berlin Tango and things were starting to get really annoying with all these places. He travelled really well but I do think Oisin Murphy went for home too soon on the horse, basically setting it up for horses in behind. If he held on to him for that little bit longer, he may well have been able to fend them off. The winner was the Aiden O’Brien trained Russian Emperor who came with a late run and looks likely to go for the English Derby.

 

 

Probably our worst race of the week as neither Convict or To Nathaniel even looked like getting involved. Hukum was a good winner but nothing from this race that I would be looking to follow or has gone into my notebook. Quite a messy race. 

 

 

I was massively keen to take on Japan in this race, hence going in double handed with Addeybb and Barney Roy. To get the favourite beat and still not come away without the winner, in a 7 runner race was bad luck. Addeybb came home 2nd and Barney Boy 3rd, another kick in the teeth. I could feel something was about to happen at this point as only so long you can consistently run good races before the winners will start to fall.

 

 

Fox Champion ran no sort of race and clearly needs to come down the handicap a few pounds. He is a horse with a decent amount of talent, or so he was last season. I will be keeping an eye on him until I feel his handicap mark is there to be exploited.

 

We sneaked E/W money with Afaak who could not follow up his 1st and 2nd in the last two renewals.

 

The winner was Dark Vision who was a horse tipped up 5 times last season, without getting the win. Bit of a sickener really but only so many times you can follow a horse before falling off a cliff.

 

 

Finally got our 2nd winner of Royal Ascot and it was a winner we deserved given the number of places we have over the first two days. It wasn’t only a winner either, it was probably the easiest winner of Royal Ascot as Fujaira Prince won by an easy 6 lengths. He is still very lightly raced for a 6 year old and will now be stepped up to Group Company. I think he could actually be a decent E/W bet for the Goodwood Gold Cup as he clearly relished the step up to 1m 6f and I see no reason why he can’t stay 2 miles. 

 

 

 

 

Boom Highland Chief was a very good winner at a huge 20/1 and this was the winner we were waiting for and could feel coming. A horse who was bred to get further and whose career started over 5f with a win last year. I said if he was winning over 5f on soft ground he must be talented as he was not bred to do that. I was sure he had improvement to come over this trip and the ground had come in his favour. Even his form behind Pinatubo and Lope Y Fernandez when 3rd in last years Chesham Stakes, made his price look absolutely huge. Rossa Ryan gave this horse a great ride and he came from last to first in splendid style.

 

Hypothetical looked to have hated the ground which I got wrong, hands up. He is by Lope De Vega whose horses normally like a bit of cut in the ground. He is not a horse I would give up on as he has only had 3 runs and is sure to run a big race in the not so distant future. He will keep progressing and another horse I will be monitoring to see if we can strike later on in the season. 

 

 

We were on at 4/1 and he was gambled into 15/8 fav. The money just would not stop coming for him. Well done to the winner Mountain Angel but I do feel the best horse lost. For me it was not the best ride you will see from Ryan Moore. He rode the horse with the view that he had horses on his inside covered with plenty of horse underneath him. He failed to see Mountain Angel creep up the inside and get first run. He finished fast inside the final furlong but could not peg back Mountain Angel who stole a few lengths under a great ride by James Doyle. Ryan Moore went for Sir Dragonet a bit late in the race in my opinion. Some will disagree but under a better ride I feel he would have won this race.

 

 

Another bad ride by Ryan Moore as this horse really should not have been beat judging by where it came from. He sat MONARCH OF EGYPT 2 lengths off at the back of the field for the first 4 furlongs and then he sent him for home, covering 8 lengths, last to first within 2 furlongs. He went 1 length up but tired inside the last 100 yards. Why he made a move so quickly and why Ryan Moore did not have him closer from the off, is beyond me. Look if he had won I am sure I may have said it was a great ride and move, but I can’t help but think why he would use so much energy up with the horse, in just under 1 1/2 furlongs. No wonder the horse tired at the end of the race. One that got away that’s for sure.

 

 

Three horses at huge prices here and we pulled off some big priced places. Toro Strike was 5th at 66/1 while Overwrite was 6th at 40/1 and 6 places advised. Some big profits made in this race, especially at those prices.

 

The winner Khaloosy was well ahead of the handicapper on a mark of 94 and I imagine you will see him go up to at least 110, given that he won by 5 lengths still going away at the line. 

 

 

Another place with Dubai Love who came home 3rd at 12/1. I thought Frankie Dettori may have stolen the race coming to the 2f marker but the horse could not find another kick. Still a good run from a horse who probably wants a bit further.

 

Our other selection was Sofika who was never put into the race. I am sure she is better than that and was looked after a little bit in the closing stages. Open to improvement. 

 

 

 

 

Our Nap of the day was Keep Busy at 10/1 and a raised stake E/W. He ran a solid race to come home 2nd but the winner was obviously well ahead of the handicapper. We also managed a place with Mighty Spirit who came home 5th at 16/1. A good start to the day and just what we wanted to try and confirm profit for the festival.

 

 

She was sent out as a replacement for a non runner with the reason being, I was massively keen to get the front few in the market beat. I really thought they were vulnerable and FANNY LOGAN was overpriced at 10/1 on how I saw the race being run. She was given a smashing ride by Frankie Dettori sitting patiently at the back of the field before using a smart turn of foot to quicken away from them in the last furlong. It was a clever ride as he let horses who I thought were suspect at staying, do the donkey work before using a smart turn of speed. Typical of John Gosden with fillies, he just keeps getting so much improvement out of them. This was the race that pretty much secured a profitable festival and we still had 1 1/2 days to come.

 

 

Another 2nd with Kimari but credit where it is due to the winner, who looked very classy. Probably one that got away if I am being honest as I had narrowed the race down to the above two selections and Golden Horde. I went with the other two which was a bit annoying as I knew, Clive Cox really rated this horse. Kimari did run a good race but simply got outclassed.

 

Lope Y Fernandez was terrible. I was quietly confident going into the race and he was even sent off 100/30 fav. He never looked dangerous and that has to be it at this trip as he clearly wants further and not enough speed for 6f. 

 

 

Yet another 2nd and yet another horse that got away. We gave Santiago a big mention in our write up and even made reference to ‘we couldn’t split the pair’. Once again we were on the right track and the only positive was reading the race to absolute perfection. 

 

I think the winner is a very smart horse and if he was mine he would be heading to English Derby as he looks like a horse who would be suited to the Epsom Downs. From what I am reading though the plan is the Irish Derby.

 

 

Young Joshua Bryan made the move I thought he had to make from a wide draw, getting a prominent position. Although he got the position he was 3 wide throughout the whole race, covering a lot more ground than the others. It told in the end and he faded badly inside the final 2 furlongs.

 

 

We go into Day Five knowing that whatever happens we had made a profit for Royal Ascot.

 

 

 

You guessed it… another 2nd and this time at 22/1 as Burmese Waltz ran a great race. She hung slightly right in the last furlong which would not have helped, before closing on the winner inside the last 100 yards. This was only her 2nd run since 423 days off the track. Depending what the handicapper does with her, I think she may have a good race in her. 

 

Vintage Brut took them along at a nice pace and although he never looked like winning and faded badly, for just a moment I was starting to think, he couldn’t could he, at a huge price. I expect him to come down the handicap a few pounds and if it comes up soft, his mark will start to get very appealing.

 

 

A terrible run from Run Wild. She adopted the tactics I thought she would by going from the front but ran very flat compared to her run at Newmarket, 2 weeks previous. Maybe she is a filly best caught when fresh but she is clearly not up to this class.

 

The winner was Alpine Star who looks like a top class horse. She was very impressive and won by an easy 4 lengths. This is a half sister to the superstar Alpha Centauri and she may be a bit smaller but looks to have a huge heart and a huge future.

 

 

Yet again another 2nd with Pinatubo who had every chance but ultimately got beat by the better horse on the day. He had every chance but Palace Pier stayed on stronger and Frankie Dettori had his every move covered.

 

A lot can be said about Pinatubo but I do feel he might keep bumping into one horse too good over 1 mile ofr the forseeable future. I think 7f is his trip and personally I would be thinking about the July Cup over 6f. If he lines up against Siskin and Palace Pier in the Sussex Stakes, I think he is set for 2nd or 3rd again over 1m.

 

 

Unfortunately by the time this race came around, the ground had dried out a bit too much for One Master. She will come on for the race and I will be keeping my eyes peeled for a soft ground race over 7f.

 

The winner Hello Youmzain was so fast out of the stalls and stole 3 lengths from the start. He fought back gamely in the last furlong and will now head for the July Cup against the likes of Golden Horde, which is a mouthwatering clash.

 

 

Unreal but yet another 2nd, this time by just a nose. It was a raised stake on our only selection in the Wokingham. I only went in with one horse as I was really confident. He was given a great ride by James Doyle as he rode to win the race by coming with a late surge. He kept him covered up at the back and then gave him daylight 2 furlongs out. Maybe if he made his move a little bit sooner then he would have won the race but he was a nose away from the perfect ride. He will now go up the handicap so I am not sure if he has handicapped himself out of a win on his next start. He is very consistent so I am sure he will run his race. He really deserved this win as he just kept turning up, race after race.

 

 

A winner to end Royal Ascot with Who Dares Wins who was sent off evens favourite with us being on at 7/4. What a legend of a horse who is so versatile whether it be on the flat, hurdles, fences, he just keeps turning up and winning big races, an absolute star.

 

 

I am very happy with our performance and going through the results, it was not far away from a monster week.

 

We had tips in 29 races and came away with 5 winners and 12 E/W bets.

 

All week our horses ran very well and the results tell us that as from the 29 races where we had 5 winners, 11 horses finished 2nd and 7 horses 3rd. That is 23 horses who finished in the first 3.

 

In total we had 45 tips so with 23 in the first three, that is over 50% of horses in the frame. Unreal strike rate in the scheme of things.

 

We came away with 12.3 points profit for the week and a return on investment of 20.50%.

 

I think we probably deserved more given our stats we have just shared but if I was offered 12 points profit at the start of the week, I would have taken it.

 

 

We have the Newmarket July Festival which get’s underway on Thursday 9th July. It is a festival over 3 days with 7 seven group races and action packed with top class racing.

 

We will of course be running a Festival Special which costs £9.99 over the 3 days but I would advise anyone thinking of signing up, to take a look at our:

 

Flat Season Package for £60. This includes all our festivals this flat season and covers you for all weekend’s and the odd tip we may have midweek. 

 

Alternatively our Festival Package over 3, 6 or 12 months will give you a big saving.

 

I hope you have enjoyed Royal Ascot and we look forward to continuing to beat the bookies going forward.