TARBOOSH 28/1 with William Hill and Paddy Power – 0.75 POINTS E/W (6 places)
I am quite keen on TARBOOSH here despite him carrying top weight of 9st 10lb. He ran in this race last year rated 104 so is only 1lb higher on a mark of 105. I thought he ran a great race in last year’s race to come home 8th of 22, only beaten 2 lengths and was a neck off the places. The Vet said after the race that he also lost his right fore shoe, which makes the run look even better.
The rain that is forecast today and possibly before racing tomorrow will only enhance his chances as he is a horse who loves a bit of cut in the ground. His form on Good To Soft ground which it is likely to be tomorrow reads 111215 and even if you put in his runs on Heavy – Good To Soft, his form reads 33225115111215. From 14 starts on Good To Soft or worse he has only finished out of the frame on 3 occasions which tells us all we need to know.
He has had 4 runs this season and ran two good races, one of which he should have won at this course back in July but did not have much room at the back of the field.
Graham Lee has been booked to ride and I think that is a very good booking as I believe he needs a strong jockey to get him home and they don’t come more stronger than Graham Lee with him being an ex jumps jockey.
We know he will travel through his race and we know the faster they go the better he will travel, hopefully under a strong Graham Lee drive, he can find plenty off the bridle, something he sometimes lacks to find when push comes to shove.
Weighing everything up and given I think this year’s race is weaker than last years, I am happy to raise the stake and expect him to be involved in optimum conditions. E/W.
BERKSHIRE ROCCO 16/1 Paddy Power and Betfair – 0.5 POINTS E/W (3 places, 1/5 odds)
This looks a very good race in which I am happy to take on the front two in the market and look for value elsewhere. Mogul finally got his head in front last time out but for me the race fell apart and I am not convinced that form is worth following. He can obviously win this race but is short enough at 15/8. Darain is 2 from 2 but this is a completely different ball game coming from two novice stakes races, to a hot looking group 2. He is a full brother to Too Darn Hot so although he has looked good, he could still be a talking horse and 3/1 is short enough once again.
The horse I think is massively overpriced is BERKSHIRE ROCCO at a huge price of 14/1. He has clearly been trained with this race in mind as his last run was at Royal Ascot when 2nd to subsequent Irish Derby winner Santiago, in the group 2 Queens Vase. He was beaten fair and square but did pull 8 lengths clear of 3rd that day.
On his penultimate start he was 2nd to English King and that horse went on to be favourite in the English Derby. Again the form looks good and shows what an insane price he is at 16/1.
Those are his only two starts this season with trainer Andrew Balding being really patient with the horse. His patience can pay off here. He won’t mind the ground and the fast they go in front, the better it will be for him. Has a huge E/W chance and is way overpriced. E/W.