Free weekend tips AT WWW.JPWRACINGTIPSTER.COM MARES HANDICAP HURDLE

A race in which we sponsor today so it seems the right thing to do, to show everyone the amount of work that goes into our tips.

 

This is not to say that we are going to get this race 100% spot on but over a period of time, 12 years to be precise, JPW Racing Tipster has made profit.

 

We are heading into our 13th National Hunt Season and we are confident we will make it our 13th year of straight profit.

 

The season officially gets underway at Chepstow on Friday and that is when our National Hunt Package will start.

 

You can get our National Hunt Package for £99.99 using discount code – NATIONAHUNT9999 via:

 

Our National Hunt Package also includes our JPW National Hunt 40 To Follow eBook which gets released on the 22nd October.

 

Moving on with our preview…….

 

A decent looking Mares Handicap Hurdle and we will preview the full race and each runner, starting with top weight:

Trained by Warren Greatrex and will be ridden by Jack Tudor who gets a handy 5lb claim. He is a jockey to follow this season and is worth every bit his 5lb claim.

Martha Brae is top weight here but with the 5lb claim, she carries 11st 7lb, bringing her handicap mark down to 122.

This is her first run of the season but she does have some decent form in the bag, most notably when 2nd to Whitehotchillifilli, at Exeter back in February. That horse is rated 131 and although Martha Brae was firmly put in her place that day, she did pull 9 lengths clear of 3rd.

Her final start last season was also a 2nd when chasing home Legends Ryde on terrible ground at Ffos Las. She gave the winner 5lb that day but did stick on gamely to the line showing a decent amount of guts and determination.

You would think that given her last 3 runs were on heavy ground last season, that she wants cut in the ground but that may not be the case, given she was a good winner in a National Hunt Flat Race back in May 2019.

The step up in trip is sure to help and I expect Jack Tudor to send her to the front and try to get into a nice rhythm. She clearly stays so now back on better ground, getting home will be no problem, just may be a case of if she is fit enough.

Trained by Charlie Longsdon and Tom Buckley is in the saddle claiming 7lb. Tom was on board when she was a winner on her penultimate start in March, when winning at Doncaster by an impressive 8 lengths. Her handicap mark went up to 126 for her next run which came at Uttoxeter last month. She was 3rd to Flashing Glance that day who is now rated 135, under a Brian Hughes ride.

With Tom Buckley claiming 7lb bringing her down to a mark of 119 she obviously has a really good chance but I am not sure it is a step up in trip she wants.

She will obviously be a strip fitter for her last run which could prove decisive given some of these are having their first run of the season.

The Kim Bailey trained horse will be ridden by stable jockey David Bass who is an underrated jockey in my opinion. She was pulled up on her last start last month, with the 3m 2f clearly stretching her. She also jumped left which to me suggests Ludlow being a right handed course, may not play to her strengths, despite her winning here as a novice. When she won here in October 2019 she also showed a sign of hanging left which tells me again, going right handed may not be the best option.

The step back to 2m 5f is ideal but still leaves you scratching your head to come back right handed.

The Seamus Mullins trained horse with Daniel Sansom taking the ride on the horse, a jockey who has won 5 times on her in the past. She will come here a fit horse with this being her 4th start of the season. Her first start of the season came at Southwell back in July, when finishing 2nd at a huge 80/1 in a very good handicap hurdle. She disappointed on her next start at Newton Abbot but then put in a decent effort, to come home 2nd to another of today’s runners, France De Reve. She meets that horse on much better terms today so I can see the form being turned around, but how strong that form is, looks open to debate, with France De Reve, disappointing on her next start.

Trained by the in form Fergal O’Brien who can do no wrong at the moment. At the time of writing he has had 8 winners from the last 25 runners he has sent out. The jockey is Connor Brace who claims 3lb and is a very talented jockey, destined to do very well in the game. His horses are simply flying along and all his horses deserve maximum respect. PROPER TICKET was a winner at Southwell on her first start and then was fancied to do the business at Perth 2 weeks ago. Unfortunately the rise to 123 in the handicap, seemed to be her undoing, despite running well to come home 2nd. She remains on the same mark here and although Connor Brace claims 3lb, I have my doubts that she is currently in the handicappers grips.

Alan King trained horse who will be ridden by Alexandra Thorne who claims 5lb. Going by the form of Proper Ticket, who she was 2nd to, on her first start of the season, I can’t see that form being turned around, even with a 4lb pull at the weights. She is however very lightly raced for a 6 year, with only 9 starts. She should have further improvement but whether it will be enough to win a race like this, is open to debate.

Trained by the master Nicky Henderson and ridden by Nico De Boinville, partnerships don’t get much better than these two. Given the horse is also owned by JP McManus she is likely to see support in the market and will possibly go down as the talking horse of the race.

She was a winner on her first start of the season back in August but as described above, she flopped on her next start at Warwick and you have to be disappointed, given she was sent off 6/4. The jury is still out for me with this horse as she does not look that straight forward and quite a quirky horse. No doubt she will be well punted and no real value will be around with this horse. I would be happy to take her until she proves otherwise that she is turning a corner.

Evan Williams trains and has daughter Isabell Williams in the saddle claiming 5lb. She was a winner on her last start last season but it was over fences. She has run in this race for the last two seasons, coming home 3rd and 4th, off a mark of 119. She is 2lb lower in the handicap today but I can’t see how she will win this year now as an 8 year old, if she couldn’t do it two years previously. More of a soft ground horse and would probably prefer it to be more testing.

Lucy Wadham trains with Bryony Frost taking the ride. Shatung has come down the handicap to a career low mark of 109 which could start to look winnable. She ran some good races last season off higher marks but was a bit inconsistent. She comes here having her first run since a wind operation which could obviously bring out improvement, but that would just be a guessing game. Even with the low weight it is hard to see her winning this.

Trained by Henry Daly and Richard Johnson in the saddle. When they team up together I always take a good look at the horse as they have a great record together. This is a horse who has had her last 5 runs at the course with her form reading 22033 so she does like it around here. After watching her race replays she seems to plug on at the end of races and gets outpaced in the middle part. Her last two runs were on soft ground over 3 miles so she drops to 2m 5f on better ground, which tells me she could get a bit outpaced, the faster they go. Although Richard Johnson carrying a tiny 10st 5lb, looks very appealing and the fact she stays a bit further, I can see her grabbing a place but not sure she has the gears to actually win the race.

Dan Skelton trained and ridden by Bridget Andrews. Same form lines as Proper Ticket and Hotter Than Hell. Hard to see how that form is turned around and if it was, I would be massively surprised.

So I tackled this race without a guide to the prices, just me going through the form and not being dictated to by the prices. Proper Ticket is respected given the form Fergal O’Brien is in but she was a fit horse last time out and should really have been winning, if she is to win a race like this off the same mark. I think she lacks a turn of foot at the end of the races and although will probably place, I am sure we have classier horses in the race.

France De Reve had a decent reputation before coming over from France but has hardly set the world a light. She does not look the easiest ride but is a horse with lots of potential.

The horse that stands out for me is top weight MARTHA BRAE, especially with Jack Tudor claiming 5lb. He is worth every bit that claim and would not be out of place without a claim. That brings the weight down to 11st 7lb and a mark of 122. She is only a 5 year old who should progress further this season. Her form last season was rock solid running off 127, not getting beat by far. It was in heavy ground over a shorter trip but that is not to say she won’t like better and in fact has winning form on better ground. This step up in trip will be appreciated given how well she sees out her races and she has a real tenacious fighting attitude, an attitude which ultimately wins you races. I expect MARTHA BRAE to be prominent throughout and if she gets into a nice rhythm and leads around the last bend, they will need to be tough to get past her. She is also very lightly raced with only 7 career starts and we are yet to see the best.

STORM GODDESS form also looks very appealing as her form last time out, when 3rd to Flashing Glance, looks strong. That was her first start of the season so she should improve further and be a strip fitter. On her last start last season she was an 8 length winner at Doncaster which was back in March, showing a fine turn of foot, to put the race to bed. This step up in trip should not give any problems and she looks overpriced.