NH Package Launches Tomorrow www.jpwracingtipster.com National Hunt Flat Race

 

As the race suggests, our National Hunt Package launches tomorrow. We are heading into our 13th season looking to make it 13 years in a row of profit.

 

The race chosen for myself when it was picked, I didn’t imagine it being so tricky, with 5 horses not ever running before and out of the 10 runners, only 3 with any piece of form on offer, with only one runner, running under rules before. As tricky a race as you will ever see but I guess it is a chance to show off my knowledge and why you need to be involved with the upcoming National Hunt Season.

 

So where do we start? The best place is to take it right back to breeding. Ffos Las is 80% of the time run on soft ground so having a good understanding of breeding, can help you tackle races like this, just by knowing which Sires and Dams, want soft ground. We can then go back to the sales and how much they cost, what caught the eye at the sales. Of course none of this gives you the winner, as experience is everything in Horse Racing but what it does do is give you that important edge over the traders in finding that all important value.

 

Hopefully over the last 12 years, I have learned my followers a lot about the thought process and for some people they are able to, if they have the time, as believe me, time is everything, go on and make a success of betting.

 

Let’s go through the race in detail:

 

 

Trained by Fergal O’Brien who can get his horses very fit the first time out. By a decent sire in Morozov and his dam is Oscar Bird, who has produced one horse in Born For War, trained by Keith Dalgeish. ALAPHILIPE half brother, Born For War, is a winner over hurdles and is now rated 117. That tells us the dam does breed winners and in fact, breeds winners by a not so prolific sire in Wareed. 

 

Now this is a horse who has had 5 runs in point to points. Four of those runs were on soft/heavy ground while his last race was on good ground, where he was a 5 length winner. He does have experience, even though it was not under rules but you have to question whether the soft ground here will be against him, given his dislike for the ground in the past. Max Kendrick takes the ride and he will claim 3lb.

 

 

Another Fergal O’Brien trained horse is Bennie Boy with Liam Harrison taking the ride and claiming 7lb in weight. Actually not a lot we can find out about, from his breeding. Bennie Boy is the Dams only progency, where the sire has only produced one other horse. You can put a line through this horse as no way can you go into a race, backing this blindly.

 

 

A £10k purchase at the derby store sales back in 2019 and without running a race, has already gone for a wind operation. That does not bode well if I am being honest and obviously has had bad breathing problems in the past, if the wind is getting done before he even races. 

 

From the breeding side of things he is by Milan who is a top class jumps sire and the dam is Hazlewood who has produced a 4 time winner in Tavern Times, trained by Thomas Mullins and is now rated 111. Could well end up being overpriced but hard to fancy, knowing he has had breathing problems before ever running a race. 

 

 

A 16k purchase at the Goffs LandRover Sales in June 2019. He was purchased by trainer Nigel Twiston Davies so straight away you see they have had him a long time and would have had time to nurture him and get him ready for today. He is by Sholokhov who is the sire to Gold Cup winner Don Cossack and the new up and coming superstar,  Shiskin. The dam is Calusa Crystal who has produced one other progeny in Youracert, trained by Donald McCain. He was a winner last year and went up the handicap to a mark of 122. I can see a lot of potential in this horse on breeding, just depends how immature he is, but given connections have had him a while, this will not be a rushed job.

 

 

Trained by Rebecca Curtis with Adam Wedge taking the ride. This is a horse who has had 3 point to point runs and was an excellent 2nd to Lifetime Ambition on her final point to point run. Lifetime Ambition went on to the Cheltenham Sales and fetched £120k, sold to Jessica Harrington. That horse had two runs under rules but underperformed and does not look anything special. Pats Fancy is by Oscar who is an excellent sire known for the likes of, Big Zeb, Rock On Ruby and Oscar Whiskey. The dam is Pats Darling who has produced one other horse, trained by Tom Taffe, called Blink and Wink, who has done nothing in 3 starts. As good as the 2nd did look after Lifetime Ambition cost £120k, the form is being let down and his full brother has not done anything on the track so far.

 

 

Trained by Colin Tizzard and ridden the excellent Robbie Power. This horse has had one start under rules and was beaten by a huge 76 lengths. Nothing tells me he has improved that he would be good enough to win this, although this is Robbie Power’s only ride of the day and you have to think he won’t want it to be a wasted journey. You simply cannot write off a Colin Tizzard horse but it’s hard to be impressed by what we have seen so far.

 

 

Trained by Tom Lacey who I think is a fantastic trainer and very much underated. He paid £52k for Stunsail at the Goffs Landrover sale back in June 2019. He is by Davidoff who has produced the likes of Abracadabras in the past but from an unknown Dam. He does wear headgear the first time up which automatically tells you he is no straight forward.

 

 

Christian Williams trained who has a fantastic set up at Ogmore By Sea. His horses seem to thrive from his training regime. Jack Tudor takes the ride and as I said yesterday, he is worth every bit of his 5lb claim. This horse has had 5 starts in point to points and was easily beaten in all but his last race, where he won by 12 lengths. By Arcadio who is a decent National Hunt sire with the Dam being Aunt Annie who has produced 4 progeny, all of which have not been great. This horse does have a bit of experience on his side and will like the soft ground. Has a chance and I am sure Christian Williams will want to make a mark early on this season. 

 

 

I am sure the market will revolve around the David Pipe horse after winning a decent point to point back in March and was purchased by the Angove Family who are not scared to put their hand in their pocket. Not out of a well known sire but from a Dam who has produced a 126 rated hurdler, trained by Willie Mullins.

A horse who you are better off watching in the market and as things stand, is plenty short enough at present.

 

 

Looking at the prices I am happy to take on Maggies Mogul as I believe the price is mainly down to who purchased the horse and David Pipe. Ultimately the horse comes with a reputation for this sort of race. Not saying he can’t win as he obviously can but there is no real value around. The same applies to Alaphilippe who is trained by Fergal O’Brien whose horses are in good form. Apart from his last success in a point to point, he didn’t really do anything beforehand which makes me think it may have been a weak point to point race.

 

The one I am drawn to is the Nigel Twiston Davies horse MYKONOS AMMOS. He is not a horse purchased after winning a point to point, he has been trained and broken in from the start, stretching back to June 2019. That is 16 months learning his trade under the watchful eye of Nigel Twiston Davies, a trainer I have huge respect for around this time of year. I am also a big fan of the breeding, not only is he by Sholokhov who is the sire of Don Cossack (gold cup winner) and Shiskin (Supreme Novice Hurdle winner), the dam has produced one other horse, who had great success for Donald McCain. That team has won a race under rules and is a point to point winner.

 

At the price of 11/2, I am happy that it is a fair price and advise a win bet.