12:50 Chepstow - JPW Racing Tipster at www.jpwracingtipster.com Maiden Hurdle
As we sponsor the first race at Chepstow tomorrow we will be doing a race preview. JPW Racing Tipster and Tipsters Empire actually sponsor the whole meeting so our Tipsters at Tipsters Empire will also be previewing 5 other races. You can find those races via the blog area of Tipsters Empire.
12:50 Chepstow – JPW Racing Tipster at www.jpwracingtipster.com Maiden Hurdle
An excellent Maiden Hurdle which could have some very useful sorts in this race.
We will start at the head of the market and work our way through the field:
Prices correct at the time of sending:
GRAND MOGUL 5/2
Trained by Nicky Henderson and a horse who was an impressive 8 lengths winner of a bumper at Thurles, when trained by Gordon Elliott. He switched trainers last November when he was purchased by Chris Hanbury and had two starts over hurdles, disappointing on both starts. Both were decent races and he is likely to have improved this season, but at the price it is hard to back, given he finished last and was pulled up on his two starts over hurdles to date. It hardly fills you with confidence.
SIZEABLE SAM 3/1
Trained by Jeremy Scott and this is a huge horse who looks tailor-made for jumping. He had two races in bumpers last season, getting beat by a short head in one race and then a good winner at Warwick back in February. This is a horse who was always going to improve when sent over hurdles and stepped up in trip and here we are today. I would take Sizeable Sam over Grand Mogul, even though this is his debut over hurdles.
TIME TO TINKER 4/1
Paul Nicholls trains and he ran well on debut at Exeter to come home 2nd. He then flopped on his next start when beaten a huge 61 lengths, despite going off 11/10f. You could put a line through the form and he should be better than what he showed, but just like Grand Mogul, it hardly fills you with confidence. I think he priced on his trainer rather than what he has done on the track.
ONLY THE BOLD 9/2
A £215k purchase in February at the Cheltenham Sales and sent to Evan Williams. He was purchased after easily winning a point to point back in January. The 2nd has gone on to win more point to points while the 3rd has won a decent bumper, beating a £155k purchase by Gigginstown Stud. The form has worked out really well and I think given how easily Only The Bold beat the two horses above, we could be seeing a very talented horse.
Oliver Sherwood trains for the Million In Mind Partnership and he was purchased after winning a point to point at Larkhill in March. We don’t know much about the horse except that two horses from the point to point race, have done nothing under rules and are rated just 106. The point to point form is hard to access and for that reason I would happily take on this horse.
PADDY’S MOTORBIKE 10/1
Sent to Sam Thomas from Nigel Twiston Davies and is the most experienced horses in the field, with 30 runs on the flat or over hurdles. He has not run since July 2019 and that was on the flat at Goodwood. He did win off a mark of 85 that season but given he has not run for sometime, he may well need the run. He has also not run over hurdles since 2017 and is now an 8 year old. I think he will bump into something who is a bit more naturally talented although if any can win at a decent price, it could be this one.
OF THE REST
They are all 33/1 and above and none have turned my eye. I believe the race is between those already named.
I would happily take on Grand Mogul at the skinny price of 5/2. He did look to have lots of talent but we didn’t see that last season. I just find it hard to back something who has been pulled up and finished last on his only two races over hurdles.
Sizeable Sam is a horse who I think could be very good but did look a bit leggy in bumpers last season and gives me the impression he will need to learn a bit more before we see the best of him.
Time To Tinker is priced up on Paul Nicholls being the trainer and I can see no value whatsoever while Paddys Motorbike is not getting any better and is likely to find something with a touch more class.
That leaves Kaphumor and ONLY THE BOLD. At the price of 9/2 and given the price tag of £215k, I am happy to take a chance on the Evan Williams trained horse. The form of his bumper in Ireland is working out very well and there is every possibility Evan Williams could have a very smart horse in his hands.
ONLY THE BOLD 9/2 generally – 1 POINT WIN
JPW Racing Tipster