SATURDAY 16TH JANUARY
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We have started 2021 in fine form, just as we finished 2020 with profit all around.
Today we have tips in four races but we are giving away tips for free in one race today:
3:00 Warwick
CAPTAIN CHAOS 11/2 with Paddy Power and Betfair 1.25 POINTS WIN
LE BREUIL 5/1 generally – 1.25 POINT WIN
ALSO TRY 0.10 POINTS REVERSE FORECAST
We have 2 selections in this race.
With Ballyoptic lining up in this, apart from one horse, he has to give a stone or more away to the rest of the field and closer to 2 stone away to most of the field and these lightweights are going to be very much appreciated in what are going to be very tough conditions.
The rain forecast overnight is heavy and that pretty much confirms that the ground will be heavy and very testing. This race is going to be an extreme test and I would not be surprised if there were only a few finishers over this marathon trip of 3m 5f.
The horse I have had lined up for this race all season is a horse called CAPTAIN CHAOS. He is a horse who finished 2nd in this race last season when given an aggressive ride from the front. He nearly stole it from the front and only to be picked up by extreme stayer, Kimberlite Candy. CAPTAIN CHAOS pulled well clear of 3rd and 4th and it was a very good effort. He then went to Doncaster off the same handicap mark of 134 and ran with the same tactics from the front, winning by a massive 54 lengths. That was his last run of last season.
His first run of the season came at Cheltenham and he was dropped in right at the back of the field. As soon as I saw those tactics, I immediately thought he was being trained with one race in mind, and that was this race at Warwick. How do you go from front running so effectively to being dropped in at the back of the field. Dan Skelton was clearly looking to bring his handicap mark down from 142.
His next run came at Bangor in conditions which were soft and ‘ideal’ but again he was at the back of the field having nothing more than a training exercise.
He was down to 140 for his final start which was at Newbury and Harry Skelton was returned to the saddle. They had him much handier on this day, obviously part of the training regime to bring him along that bit further. He finished the race but was beaten over 50 lengths and in the process they have got his handicap mark down to 136, which is just 2lb higher than last year.
Dan Skelton at his best in playing with the handicapper.
They now bring in the blinkers for today’s race which were last seen last season when winning at Doncaster and finishing 2nd in this race. The ground is in his favour and I expect them to go from the front, just as they did last season.
He has been laid out for the race, this is his Gold Cup and it will be some training performance from Dan Skelton if he has trained him to perfection to prime for just one day. Harry Skelton carries a tiny 10st 2lb. WIN.
LE BREUIL was also a runner in this race last season but last year it was off a mark of 148 and this time around he is down to a mark of 140. Ben Pauling has always said this horse is a Grand National horse and was in with a good E/W chance last season, before the national was cancelled due to Covid 19. He will once again be aimed at the Grand National but now on a mark of 140, he won’t get in the race unless of course he wins this race.
HE HAS TO WIN THIS RACE TO GET IN THE GRAND NATIONAL and for that reason he will be trying as hard as he possibly can.
Last season in this race he finished with a late run to come home 5th but they were just looking to bring his handicap mark down from 148, this time around things are a bit different.
He has had two runs this season with his last start a decent 3rd to Vieux Lion Rouge in the Becher Chase when sent off 5/1 fav.
Just 3 days later he was sent for a wind operation so given he had wind problems at Aintree, he clearly did well to come home 3rd.
This is a horse who has won the 4 miler at the Cheltenham Festival so we know he will stay all day long and now on a very dangerous mark of 140 with Kielan Woods carrying just 10st 6lb, he has to go close. WIN.
Good Luck
JPW Racing Tipster