2021 Royal Ascot Review + hORSES TO FOLLOW

What a funny old week it was at Royal Ascot but a very enjoyable one. The week started with plenty of sunshine and lightning quick ground. By Friday it was nearly called off in a massive turn of weather. Let’s just say the weather was a little freakish as in the space of 16 hours, you are looking at firm ground horses to then looking at heavy ground horses. 

From a personal point of view not the week we wanted at JPW where we came away with a slight loss but we did have some memorable moments and we were one winner away from making profit. I guess this week we lacked that big priced winner which we normally bag over the 5 days. We went close a number of times with the likes of Arecibo (50/1, 2nd), Princess Zoe (2nd, 28/1), Quintillius (3rd, 28/1) and if one of them goes in, JPW is the hero. Fine margins this game but I will take positives out of it, we found some big priced places and hit the crossbar, selections others could or would not be able to find through careful analysis.

We came away with 4 winners over the 5 days and 10 each way bets. Our strike rate, win or each way was an excellent 37.5%, yet we came away with a slight loss…….

As always I like to provide an update on these big festivals and although I have many eye-catchers, I am happy to share some performances which may want to go in your notebook and these are a bit left field.

I did say these notebook horses may be a bit left field so hold on tight…

Will BLESS HIM ever win a Group 1 race? Not in a million years, he is not good enough at this level against the worlds best milers. Although he is not good enough at this level on a rating of 105 or lower after this, I do think he has a big handicap or group 3 in him. BLESS HIM will need the ground to be lightning fast and he will need lots of runners with lots of pace, but I saw enough in this race to suggest he has a big handicap in him.

I urge anyone to go back and watch the replay of the Queen Anne Stakes. With 1 1/2f to go he was travelling better than anything in the race but he just doesn’t have the speed at the end of the race, at this level.

He is entered this Saturday at Windsor but hold fire as the ground is way too soft for him. This is a horse who needs it very fast so if you do follow him, make sure the ground is at least good to firm.

If he was mine I would probably run him on Saturday on bad ground, knowing he won’t like the ground and try and bring the handicap mark down to 102 – 103. I would then put away and get him right for the Golden Mile Handicap at Glorious Goodwood at the end of the month, praying the ground comes up super fast.

David Simcock, if you are reading this, don’t say I didn’t tell you 

EUCHEN GLEN was right at the back of the field many lengths off the field yet stayed on with a fast finish to come home 5th. If only Paul Mulrennan had him that bit closer I am quietly confident he would have gone close. This is a horse who doesn’t need to sit at the back of the field and I have seen him win races from the front, this makes me believe he would have gone close if he was not stone cold last throughout. 

EUCHEN GLEN also had to give weight away to most of the field which included the 4 horses who finished ahead of him.

No doubt he will appreciate a step up in trip and although I don’t know the plan with the horse, I am confident he will land another win before the season is out, possibly at a big price. 

STOWELL was another horse who was at the back of the field throughout and Frankie Dettori had to come wide of everyone staying on for 3rd place. It was a very encouraging run from this Zoffany Colt as this was just his 3rd career start. His previous run came in a Class 4 Maiden and he showed he belongs at this level. With a few more runs under his belt he can only progress.

The trip here was 1m 6f and early on STOWELL pulled hard, so I am thinking maybe a step down in trip, with a faster pace, on a little slow ground, will do the trick. 

Trainer John Gosden will get much more improvement out of this horse and I would not be surprised to see him win a group race on his next couple of starts.

These are just a sample of the notes we make and the details we work on in the background, making sure we deliver the profits long term.

 

Three horses for everyone’s notebooks which are a little different and will certainly represent some value.