POINT LONSDALE 12/1 generally – 0.75 POINTS E/W (4 places, 1/5 odds)
BERKSHIRE SHADOW 80/1 generally – 0.375 POINTS E/W (4 places, 1/5 odds)
We have 2 selections in this race.
The big race of the day and the one they all have to beat is Native Trail who is the short priced favourite. Although I think he is a very good horse, I wasn’t overly impressed with his run a few weeks ago and although it would have put him spot on for this, I am going to take a chance that others may have improved from the age of 2 – 3, especially with the prices on offer.
POINT LONSDALE won 4 of his 5 starts last season with his only defeat coming to Native Trail at the Curragh back in September. That race was over 7f and he will improve for this step up in trip. He does have to make up a 3 length deficit but that day he was sent off 8/13 favourite with Native Trail 7/2. Could he have just been having an off day? Previously he was a winner at Royal Ascot and this was followed with 2 more impressive wins at Leopardstown and Curragh at group level. Frankie Dettori has been booked to ride which is eye-catching and he strikes me as horse who will be a better 3 year old than a 2 year old.
This price on offer is huge when comparing it to the favourite who he only went down to by 3 lengths last season. I am quietly confident he can place at the very least. E/W.
BERKSHIRE SHADOW is a left field selection and although he has his work cut out, he should never be 80/1, that is ridiculous. The trip of 1m has question marks but his Dam was a 1 mile horse and it may just bring out some improvement the older he is getting. It all depends how fast they go from the front, if they go fast and hard he will have his work cut out but if they go a steady pace, it could play to his strengths and the fast finishing kick that he has. He always sees out his races well and last season won the group 2 Coventry Stakes at Royal Ascot. That race has produced some good horses like Caravaggio and Calyx. He ran in 3 more races last season without winning but on his final start at this course in October, he did come home 4th to Native Trail in the Dewhurst Stakes, beaten 4 lengths, seeing out the 7f well. He has a lot to do to turn that form around but Native Trail is 5/4 and our selection is 80/1. He was a winner first time up last season and although I couldn’t say I am massively confident, we are talking about a horse here who should be 33/1 – 40/1 and not the huge 80/1 on offer. He really could surprise a few and the booking of Jason Watson is ideal. He is a strong jockey who can get a lot out of horses in the closing stages, exactly what BERKSHIRE SHADOW needs. E/W.