Prices correct at the time of sending to members last night.
AL SUHAIL 8/1 Paddy Power and Betfair – 1 POINT E/W (4 places, 1/5 odds)
With the rain that is due to fall at Ascot this evening, come tomorrow morning it could be soft ground and this will really suit AL SUHAIL. His season only got started 6 weeks ago at York in the group 2 City Of York Stakes when 5th of 9 to Kinross. He then improved on that effort to come home 3rd of 6, again to Kinross, in the Cazoo Park Stakes but only went down by 3 lengths. He is clearly taking a step forward with every run and now back down to group 3 company, he will surely go close. One negative may be that he is down to 6f from 7f but I actually think it may play his strengths. If the ground comes up soft as I expect it, his front running style will put these to the test. We will have no stamina worries as we know AL SUHAIL stays 7f and even 1 mile. Everything points to a big run here and given my confidence I am happy to raise the stake. E/W.
COLD CASE 7/2 generally – 1.5 POINTS WIN
We were on COLD CASE last time out when he won a big stakes race at Doncaster over 6 1/2f. He went from the front while giving weight all around to win by a short head. This is a horse who is well built but has still not stopped improving. No doubt he is going to be an even better 3 year old but for now I am sure he is up to winning a race of this sort. Any rain which falls this evening will not inconvenience him as he will stay further than today’s trip of 6f. Although he went from the front last time, I think he will be a better horse if he gets a lead. With plenty of pace around him in stall 3, 6, 7, 9 and 10, he is drawn perfectly in 8. I think COLD CASE will turn out to be a proper ground horse in the future but for now he will have no problem winning a race of this sort. WIN.
SAFE VOYAGE 6/1 generally – 0.5 POINTS E/W (5 places, 1/5 odds)
EVER GIVEN 16/1 generally – 0.5 POINTS E/W (5 places, 1/5 odds)
We have 2 selections in this race.
SAFE VOYAGE is a horse who was rated 112 this time last year and although he has not been the same horse this season, his last 2 starts have been excellent. He was 6th of 11 at Goodwood in the William Hill Handicap at the end of August, only beaten 2 lengths. He was then sent to Leopardstown just 2 weeks later for a hot handicap and came home a fast finishing 2nd, beaten just 1/2 length. He is a horse who is just finding his form again and the more rain the better for him. As mentioned above I think the going will be soft tomorrow at Ascot and this will be right up his street. Now rated 100 and finding his old form again, I can see him going close. This is a former multiple group 2 winner, running in a handicap and he is right near the bottom of the handicap. He has to go close. E/W.
EVER GIVEN is way overpriced in my opinion. He has run 7 times this season with 5 of them coming in group races. He was a listed winner at Epsom back in June and this has been followed up with places in two group 3s. His last run was over in Longchamp when coming home 2nd to Fang in a group 3. He is another horse who won’t mind cut in the ground and from 4 starts on soft ground, he has won two and came second in another. Trainer Hugo Palmer is using Pierre Louis Jamin to claim 3lb which brings his handicap mark down to 103. He is a jockey who is worth every bit the 3lb claim and is very strong in a finish, just what EVER GIVEN needs. E/W.