CHELTENHAM festival DAY 1

2:10 Arkle Chase

JONBON 7/4 generally – 1.25 POINTS WIN

We will start with JONBON in the Arkle Chase and this looks set to be a cracker. We could have gone looking for an each way shot but I am convinced the race is between 3 horses in JONBON, El Fabiolo and Dysart Dynamo. In fact although I am not advising it as an official bet, I wouldn’t put anyone off a small stake reverse tricast.

With Dysart Dynamo in this race you are guaranteed it will be a fast run race and suit a horse who stays that bit further. Now both JONBON and El Fabiolo will stay a bit further but even before JONBON made his debut over fences, I always thought he wanted further and the way this Arkle Chase will be run, it will be right up his street. 

He comes into the race 3 from 3 over fences and his jumping has been spectacular, if a tiny bit right at times, which is not an issue as he will be coming wide around Dysart Dynamo coming to the 2nd last fence, so it won’t inconvenience him.

His first 2 starts were impeccable but last time out he was less eye-catching and had to outbattle Calico, staying on well after the last fence to win the race. Now with little time to reflect on the race, I liked the way he stuck his head down, even though he got caught flat footed. The 2nd has also come out and won since, so maybe it wasn’t that bad a race, albeit it was a bit of a farce. 

The key thing we can take out of it, is JONBON would have learned so much from the run as he had to dig deep and get ugly.

With JONBON you are pretty much guaranteed that he will jump, he has so much scope and hardly touches a twig. The same can’t be said for Dysart Dynamo or El Fabiolo, especially the latter, who has put in a couple of wobbles over his fences to date. Dysart Dynamo is a good jumper but when tired the 2nd last fence could catch him out.

El Fabiolo was impressive last time out, not getting around that, when winning a hot race at the Leopardstown Dublin Festival. He stayed on strongly all the way to the line. The worry I have with him is, when they come around the bend towards the 2nd last, it comes up really fast and that is where you are going to see horses make a mistake. If El Fabiolo makes a mistake at that point and with his jumping not to be trusted, it really can happen, and Jonbon pings it, he will find it hard to peg back as it is quickly on to the last fence and up the hill. 

Dysart Dynamo will go fast in front so coming to the last I feel he will be a sitting duck and I can’t see how either Jonbon or El Fabiolo won’t have a shot at him. 

The name of this game is jumping and we know JONBON is a pretty safe bet in that department, combine that with stamina, he certainly won’t be stopping coming up the hill.

2:50 Ultima Handicap Chase

CORACH RAMBLER 7/1 generally – 0.75 POINTS E/W (6 places)

The Ultima Handicap Chase is a race I have made my own and I have found the winner in 9 of the last 12 runnings of the race. It is the race where I have the most victories on my CV and a race where I know exactly the type of horse it takes to win the race.

CORACH RAMBLER is just a solid pick to start off our Festival Handicap. This is not to say come the day we won’t have other selections in the Ultima, but this would be my strongest selection in the race.

He was the winner of this race last season off a mark off a mark of 140 and he was doing all his best work at the end of the race. He is now up to a mark of 147 but I think he can defy a 7lb rise in the weights, especially as this race this year, is going to be an even more test of stamina with the ground being soft. The more a test of stamina the better for CORACH RAMBLER.

He has not been seen since the Coral Gold Cup (Hennessy) back in November, when an excellent 4th of 15 to Le Milos. The ground was good that day so it would have been against him, but he still stayed on from the last fence, in his usual fashion, and it just left me feeling he may have more up his sleeve. He has not been seen since as he is being aimed at the Grand National where he is currently 12/1 2nd fav. If he is 12/1 for that race with 40 runners, the 7/1 here in a weaker race looks decent. Lucinda Russell knows the time of day with her horses and clearly did not want to ruin his handicap mark prior to weights being released in the National. That is a sign that she still thinks he is ahead of the handicapper and given the National is just 1 month away, he will be a very fit horse. Following this race she will want to just keep ticking him over so she won’t have left much training in the horse. Besides CORACH RAMBLER won this race last year and the pot is worth £70k to the winner. Surely it is a case of, win this race first and then on to the National. Derek Fox takes the ride and he knows this horse inside out. He was on him last year when winning the race and in fact is the only jockey to ride him, in 11 races under rules. He is a 9 year old who only 11 races under rules, so very lightly raced.

For me CORACH RAMBLER will be staying on up the hill late in the race and in my mind, I have a placed finish at the very least. E/W.

Good Luck