DEMOCRACY DILEMMA 6/1 generally – 0.75 POINTS E/W (4 places, 1/5 odds)
SQUEALER 13/2 generally – 0.5 POINTS WIN
We have 2 selections in this race although the top horse DEMOCRACY DILEMMA is my main bet in the race. I have covered SQUEALER with a small win bet, as he wasn’t far behind when studying the race. I made a similar mistake in the 1000 guineas where I should have had a small side bet on Mawj so as long as we learn from our mistakes it can only increase our profits in the long run.
These types of races are normally won by horses who are drawn low at Chester. I have gone through the race and quite a few of the horses drawn 1-5 are slowly away when the gates open, which is not going to help their chances. One horse I know for certain will be away fast from the gates is DEMOCRACY DILEMMA. He just loves to front run and darts out of the gates and although on paper draw 8 is not ideal, I have no doubt he will be in the first 3 coming around the bend, he is that eager to bomb out and get on with things. A course like Chester is absolutely perfect for him.
Last time out this David Evans trained horse was a nice winner at Thirsk under a Hollie Doyle ride. He has gone up the handicap to a mark of 90, so is probably not what you call ‘well handicapped’, but even so the jockey booking of Oisin Murphy is a very strong one. He will no doubt have the horse in all the right positions at all the right times.
If the plan works that I have in my head and what I have mentioned above, DEMOCRACY DILEMMA will not be far away. E/W.
Moving on with our small stake on SQUEALER who is drawn right on the inside in stall 1. Absolutely perfect if you ping the gates and grab the rail, but also a disaster if you miss the gates and get stuck behind a wall of horses. This race is going to be won or lost at the gate for SQUEALER. He is a front runner who is normally away well at the gates, although last time out he dwelt at the start, something he can’t do here. If we go back to his penultimate start last September, where he pinged the gates and won from the front at Beverley, that would be absolutely perfect here for him.
I think this could turn out to be quite a nice horse and the booking of Tom Marquand is once again a very strong booking. You will know your fate from the off but if we are off in front, it may take a good one to go past. WIN.