Saturday 3rd JUNE 2023

Free Horse Racing TIps

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Before moving on with the free tips for Saturday in the Derby, I think now is a good time to catch up on JPW Racing Tipster and why it is so successful. 

Another cracking day on the full service and free tips. We came away with 2 winners and an each way for the Flat Season and Weekend Service, taking us to 18 points profit in the last 2 weeks alone. That is from just 20 runners and we have had 9 winners. We are absolutely flying along and firmly on course to make it 14 from 15 flat seasons in profit. Remember that is on the back of 15 from 15 National Hunt Seasons in profit and we absolutely smashed the last National Hunt Season to bits, continuing that form right into the Flat Season.

This Flat Season I have taken a more selective approach where we only tip in Class 2 or above races and it is clearly paying dividends, with 9 winners from the last 20 tips, nearly a 50% strike rate.

If you are not signed up then you are seriously missing out.

Here are the two write ups sent out today which clearly show we know the thought process and thinking behind each tip. Hard work always pays off and without blowing my own trumpet to much, the hard work put in is the reason why we have days like winning £400k on the Scoop 6 between the syndicate or 4 from 5 winners on Grand National Day.

 

Today’s winning write ups:

3:10 Epsom

EMILY UPJOHN 11/4 generally (3/1 William Hill) – 1 POINT WIN
A very interesting race to get stuck into and you could make a strong case for quite a few of these. The favourite is Westover who comes into the race on the back of an excellent 2nd at Meydan in March, to the superstar horse in Equinox. I rate Westover but he often bumps into one too good. Hurricane Lane was poor at Newbury in April but bounced back at Newmarket 2 weeks later. He is a horse who is hit and miss and can’t be trusted while the Aiden O’Brien trained Point Lonsdale, is having his first start over 1m 4f and I am not convinced he will get the trip.
I am happy to side with EMILY UPJOHN who is trained by John Gosden. He is a trainer who does so well with his fillies, especially when he keeps them in training as 4 year olds. EMILY UPJOHN also gets fillies weight allowance of 3lb from the boys which could make all the difference here. 
She was a very unlucky loser of the Oaks last year over course and distance, in a time which was faster than when Westover was 2nd in the Derby. 
She ran a stinker at Royal Ascot on her next start but bounced back in style at the same course on Champions Day in October. She had a long break between Ascot (July) and Ascot (October), which suggests her back performance in July was down to a niggling problem. 
EMILY UPJOHN is all class and I think she is going to turn out an even better 4 year old under the care of John Gosden,
We also have Frankie Dettori in the saddle and this will be his last season before he retires and no doubt he will be chomping at the bit to get a win on the board. 
I think she should be favourite and I can see enough value in the price of 11/4. WIN.
 
3:30 Epsom
SOUL SISTER 3/1 generally – 1 POINT WIN
Another John Gosden filly with SOUL SISTER and you can see a theme here of how highly I rate him as a trainer of fillies. Savethelastdance is the hot favourite and will be hard to beat after winning at Chester by 22 lengths in soft ground, but I think that was a very poor race, despite the wide margin win. She is the right favourite and no doubt will be hard to beat, but I still think she is plenty short enough. SOUL SISTER was a winner of Musidora at York last month and that race is a great stepping stone for this race. She didn’t just win either; she bolted up by 4 lengths, finishing fast and strong. The trip that day was 1m 2f and given all her best work was at the end of the race, you have to think a further step up in trip to 1m 4f is exactly what she wants. The long straight when they turn for him will ensure she has plenty of time to pick up and I can see her going away at the end of the race. She is a Frankel filly out of Dream Place who was a group 2 winner and a head 2nd in a group 1. She is very well bred and we have not seen anywhere near the best of her yet.
Frankie Dettori is in the saddle and as already mentioned, this is his last season, so his last Oaks and he will be doing everything in his power to win the race. WIN.

 

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Today we have free tips in the Derby which has been chosen at random. Remember you can unlock all our tips for today, ensuring you miss nothing by signing up to the Flat Season Package.
 
PRICES CORRECT AT THE TIME OF SENDING THIS EVENING
 
1:30 Epsom
ARREST 7/2 generally – 1.25 POINTS WIN
WHITE BIRCH 12/1 generally – 0.5 POINTS E/W (4 places, 1/5 odds)
 
The big race, the derby and we have 2 selections in what I think looks a rather weak derby if truth be told.
 
The favourite is Auguste Rodin, I don’t know what to make of him. He will clearly improve for the step up in trip but you can hardly be confident given how badly he ran in the 2000 guineas. Although I think he will improve massively, he still becomes a guessing game and until otherwise proven, you can not be sure he has improved from a 2 year old to a 3 year old. With that in mind, I personally think we have no other choice but to take him on.
 
The first horse I am taking him on with is the John Gosden trained ARREST. I think he is a very smart horse who is by Frankel and out of Nisriyna who has produced some very nice horses. We will have no concerns about the trip and actually the faster they go the better it will suit him as all he does is stay. He was a nice winner at Ffos Las last season before going to France for a Group 1 and finishing 2nd beaten by a head. His first and sole run as a 3 year old was at Chester in the Chester Vase, where he won with ease by 7 lengths. Given his last 3 runs have been with soft in the description, you could argue he wants it a bit softer but I don’t think fast ground will be a problem as ARREST has a lovely stride and it is actually a stride well suited to the undulations of Epsom. 
 Frankie Dettori takes the ride and this is his final Derby so he will be all out for the win. I am quietly confident ARREST goes very close here and I can’t have him out of the frame. WIN.
 
Our 2nd selection is WHITE BIRCH who I think is going to absolutely love stepping up in trip. He was a winner of a group 3 at Leopardstown in April and then was just touched off at York in the Dante Stakes, beaten a neck by The Foxes. WHITE BIRCH was an unlucky loser in my opinion as he was slow away from the stalls, but kept on and was closing on The Foxes all the way to the line. Another 1 furlong and I am sure he would have got up. Given the trip in the Dante is 1m 2 1/2f, it suggests this 1m 4f is going to be right up his street. The Dante is the best trial around for the Derby and produces many winners and placed horses of this race. If this horse was trained by a bigger trainer such as John Gosden or Aiden O’Brien, no way would he be 12/1 and what a story it would be, to see trainer John Murphy get a classic winner. The jockey booking of Colin Keane is also a strong booking and I think he is going to surprise a few. He is a straightforward horse who can battle and if there inside the last furlong, he will be hard to get past. E/W.
 
Good Luck

 

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