SCOOP 6 BONUS SELECTION - 30th SEPTEMBER
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The time has come and as I always say, believe something enough and it will happen. Today is the day we win the Scoop 6 bonus, AGAIN.
All this is at the time of writing – 1pm Friday Afternoon.
Well well well – we are making a habit of this and we are back again this weekend chasing down £112k on the Bonus Race which is the 3:40 Newmarket (Cambridgeshire Handicap).
Over the last 10 months we have won the Scoop 6 Win Fund 4 times, and nailed the bonus 3 times, going for a 4th Bonus win.
That is a record no other person has achieved in many decades of the Scoop 6. In fact last weekend we broke our own record of 6 wins in 10 months, to make it 7 and this weekend WE WILL make it 8 wins.
Many people ask how I do it…..
Well it is no secret ingredient apart from ability and understanding of Horse Racing on the whole.
I am a tipster at JPW Racing Tipster where when it comes to tipping, it is all about value. You have to have the edge over the bookmaker consistently to make it work long term, in my case 15 years. Probability and understanding percentages are crucial.
When it comes to the Scoop 6, I have to have a different approach as the emphasis becomes all about which horse is going to win. We are still using probability as a tool but we switch it around to work to our advantage.
Let’s use last weekend as an example and the very first race. The outsider of the field was Not So Sleepy at 10/1 (morning price). That means the bookmakers were giving him a 9.09% chance of winning and they thought he was the least likely winner of the race. I couldn’t believe they were writing him off as the outsider of the field.
He is a horse who was having his first start of the season as the only negative, but they didn’t factor in he is a horse who has finished 3rd and 4th in a Cesareswitch (2m 2f), as well as liking soft ground. This 1m 5f on heavy ground was ideal as we know he stays further and when others had enough, he would keep going all the way to line, given how well he stays.
Low and behold that was exactly what happened and he went on to win by 2 lengths and will now go back to the Cesareswitch next month.
As mentioned above the bookies made him a 10/1 chance, but I made him a 9/2 chance, 3rd best the betting. 9/2 meant I gave him an 18.18% chance of winning compared to 9.09% that the bookies gave him and he was included in our selections for the first race, where many overlooked him as they thought he was the outsider of the field.
He ended up an SP of 15/2 (11.76% chance of winning)
Many will be reading this and thinking, I am giving away secrets on how I make selections in the Scoop 6, but I don’t see it like that as I know my knowledge will always hold up and my judgement is second to none when it comes to false prices. Many last weekend would still not have included the above horse as they will be focussed on the bookies odds, whereas I price my own market up each and every time and work on my own system, exclusive to me and my knowledge of the game.
Sorry for the long write up but I hope you all found it interesting and if anything learn from it. The more people who beat the bookies the better and I would never begrudge anyone taking money from the bookies.
Now on to the main event…….
BONUS RACE SELECTION
3:40 Newmarket – GREEK ORDER – 1 PT WIN FOR MEMBERS OF JPW RACING TIPSTER
It was a tough one if truth be told as normally I go into this race as a tipster and with 34 runners, I am seeking out the value which no doubt is available. With the Scoop 6 Bonus we need the winner and value goes out of the window, unless of course the prices were what I believed incorrect. As we only have one shot at it and we are the only ticket. I have focussed my study on the top 8 in the market and I have done all the studying in the world with each horse.
As I have mentioned above about probability and the bookies have Greek Order in at 4/1 (20% chance of winning). I actually make him a 9/2 shot (18.18% chance of winning) so the bookies are thereabouts with what I have him in at.
The next best I had was 10/1 and then a load of 12/1 and 14/1 shots.
Given GREEK ORDER is clear favourite in this race and we are the only ticket going for £112k – it would be pretty foolish to go with anything else at 10/1 (9.09%), 12/1 (7.69%) etc.
If we had competition with other tickets in the Bonus, I may be tempted to take them on but in the position we are in, it would be silly to look past the clear favourite GREEK ORDER who has a lovely draw in 25.
Even from a tipping point of view, I think GREEK ORDER is going to be a very hard horse to beat. Obviously we have 34 runners and it could get messy in running but he is drawn on the right side with a high draw in 25, with the last 7 winners coming from draws of (26), (21), (25), (29), (21), (29), (28). High is where you have to be.
In my opinion GREEK ORDER is a group horse running in a handicap. His win at Newbury last time was very eye-catching and his turn of foot in the last 2 furlongs was top class and only proper horses can do that sort of thing. Oisin Murphy didn’t even have to use his whip, so we already know he has plenty more left in the tank. He has obviously been raised by the handicapper to a mark of 95, which I think is fair. Even then, given he is a 3 year old and has so much improvement to come, we are probably looking at 105 – 110 horse when he reaches his full potential. He could be a good 10lb – 15lb ahead of the handicapper and I guess that is why he is so short in the market.
He is trained by Roger Charlton who is as shrewd as they come and he wouldn’t be running a 3 year old in this race if he didn’t think he would win.
GREEK ORDER is a big horse with a lovely big stride and he skips off the ground. I actually think his stride is perfect for the good to firm ground and on better ground we will see an even better horse.
I expect Oisin Murphy to get some cover and then in the last 2f bring him out for a run where he will kick on with a devastating turn of foot, literally be gone…
He carries just 8st 9lb on his back and I am as confident as they come that he can win this race and nail the Bonus for us.
Come on GREEK ORDER let’s do this and create even more history.
The last time I went to Greece for an order was 15 years ago, and I came back with my now wife. I have never needed another GREEK ORDER until now but one thing I do know is these GREEK ORDER’S are the best in the world. 