CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL DAY 1 2024

1:30 Supreme Novice Hurdle

MYSTICAL POWER 4/1 generally – 1 POINT WIN

SLADE STEEL 5/1 generally – 1 POINT WIN

We have 2 selections in this race against the field.

The rain is going to fall tomorrow morning from 6am until the first race and on what is already soft ground, we could possibly see it turn to heavy. Even if it does not go heavy, it is rain softened ground and you are going to have to stay on this ground. Looking through the field, the pace is going to come from Tullyhill and Mistergif and that is exactly what I wanted for MYSTICAL POWER. 

The faster they go in front the more MYSTICAL POWER will settle and I have no doubt he has the best turn of foot in the race, he just needs a nice toe into the race, which he is going to get with Tullyhill. 

MYSTICAL POWER was a lovely winner last time out at Punchestown and quickened nicely at the end of the race, showing a very smart turn of foot. The race was not run to suit so to be able to do that when he was keen throughout, tells me he is a very smart horse. This race is going to be run to suit and although he will need to be on his A Game, the faster they go the better. His jumping can be a bit hit and miss but once again, I think that will improve the faster he goes.

MYSTICAL POWER comes into the race unbeaten and is 3 from 3 under rules. He is bred impeccably being by Galileo and out of Annie Power, a horse who won at the Cheltenham Festival in 2016 when winning the Champion Hurdle. On breeding this horse is bred to stay so even with the rain softened ground, this should really suit him come the end of the race and I can see him powering up the hill.

My other selection is SLADE STEEL, who we were on Ante Post (Non Runner No Bet) for the Ballymore Novice Hurdle on Wednesday. We will get our money back for that race so no harm done and it looks like Henry De Bromhead was keen to swerve Ballyburn. Whichever race he was going, SLADE STEEL was going to the opposite race. On Good To Soft ground I was a bit alarmed as I think he want further than 2m on that ground, but on today’s Soft ground, this race is really going to suit him. He will be the one staying on at the end of the race, no doubt about it, and the faster they go in front, the more they are setting this race up for SLADE STEEL. 

He comes into the race on the back of a 2^nd to Ballyburn in the Grade 1 Novice Hurdle at the Dublin Festival. Although he was beaten convincingly, he did pull 7 lengths clear of the 3^rd that day and without Ballyburn in that race, you would probably be looking at a short priced favourite for this race or the Ballymore. Prior to that he was a Grade 2 at Navan on Heavy ground and he is your typical hardened National Hunt Horse. He is game, he can jump, he can travel, he just ticks all the boxes. 

Rachael Blackmore is in the saddle and tactically she is a genius as we have seen at Cheltenham in the past. She knows her fractions very well and I am expecting a big run from SLADE STEEL. 

Of the rest Jeriko Du Reponet looks a decent price but unfortunately I had to overlook him as the form of Nicky Henderson yard has not been great. I will be watching his horse closely on the first day and see if they are over the bug which hit the yard.

Tullyhill is going the right way and was a nice winner last time out. The trouble is I can’t get that loss out of my head from the start of the season and no back up to Grade 1 company, I am not sure what he will find at the Cheltenham Hill.

Firefox is the only one to beat Ballyburn but he was very poor last time out in the Lawlors Of Naas Grade 1 back in January. He could quite easily bounce back but I am happy to take him on with MYSITCAL POWER and SLADE STEEL, both of whom I believe to be proper Cheltenham horses who will love the fast pace and undulations around Prestbury Park.

4:50 Boodles Juvenile Hurdle (Advised Sunday Evening)

MILAN TINO 13/2 generally – 1 POINT E/W (6 places, 1/5 odds)

LIARI 8/1 generally – 0.75 POINTS E/W (6 places, 1/5 odds)

We have 2 selections in this race.

We will start with MILAN TINO who is out to 13/2, a massive surprise to me as I have MILAN TINO in as 9/2 favourite. This horse is trained over in France by Noel George (trainer of Ile Est Francais).

He finished 3rd in a French Grade 2 back in October and was then brought over to Cheltenham at the November meeting, for the Juvenile Hurdle. He was sent off 6/4 favourite that day but was easily brushed aside by Burdett Road and finished in 3rd place. Burdett Road is a very good horse so no shame in that defeat on his first trip to the UK and of course he got in some course preparation. He then came back to Cheltenham on Trials Day for the Juvenile Hurdle Trial, coming home 3rd once again behind Sir Gino and once again Burdett Road. Sir Gino was massively impressive that day and that form looks very hot. MILAN TINO closed the gap from 7 lengths to 1 length behind Burdett Road that day, suggesting he is improving with each start and I expect him to take a further step forward here.

The one thing I can’t understand is how he has got away with a tiny handicap mark of 126. Absolutely unbelievable and if I was the handicapper, he would not have a mark of 126, that is for sure. He was actually rated 136 on his last race and although he was beaten 11 lengths, how his mark comes down to 126 is madness. There is obviously a reason why the handicapper has done it, but it doesn’t mean I have to agree with the handicapper and that is why I am here, to take advantage of what I believe to be his mistakes.  He was 1 length behind Burdett Road on his last start and Burdett Road is rated 136, again make the mark of 126 make sense?? 

Jonjo O’Neill Jnr takes the ride once again and he has rode him the last twice at Cheltenham, so he will have an idea of the type of horse he has underneath him. 

Last time out I thought he travelled well from the front, jumped soundly on the whole and I wouldn’t mind seeing him take up a prominent position once again, staying trouble free. 

For the above reasons I make him the best handicapped horse in the race and with 6 places on offer, if the horse turns up in the same form from his last two starts, plus a bit of improvement, he has to be thereabouts.

I say it all the time, course form has a lot to answer for, particularly with these juveniles as they will be used to the big crowds in the preliminaries and you can’t buy that. E/W.

My 2nd selection in the race is the Paul Nicholls trained LIARI. I wouldn’t be so confident that he is well handicapped like Milan Tino and he does have to carry top weight, but I know Paul Nicholls thinks a lot of this horse, so just maybe on a mark of 134, he has a few pounds in hand. They could have gone for the Triumph Hurdle and it was on the cards, so the fact the Dicheat Team are happy to have top weight in a handicap, tells me they think he is a head of the handicapper. He is another horse who has come over from France and has not put a foot wrong this season. LIARI is 3 from 3 over hurdles and last time out he was an easy winner of the Scottish Triumph Hurdle  at Musselburgh. That was his 2nd listed race win, as back in December, he won a listed race at Aintree. 

We also have the bonus of Harry Cobden in the saddle who is top of the game in the UK. LIARI also likes to get on with things so should stay out of trouble and Harry Cobden is the best jockey around at getting his fractions right from the front. Whether they go from the front on a top weight, is a big call but even if he doesn’t, they will have him up with the pace that is for sure. 

In each of his runs this season, he has shown a smart turn of foot so when they come to the bottom of the hill, you just know he is going to fly up it. 

I make him a 13/2 chance so the 8/1 on offer is decent value. E/W.

Good Luck