2024 CHELTENHAM NOVEMBER FESTIVAL REVIEW

 

 

As always in anything I do I always review the festivals in detail and also leave you with a few horses to follow going forward. 

 

What a great 3 days of racing but also what a sad end to a great 3 days of racing with 3 horses losing their lives yesterday. The sport can be so amazing but it can also be so cruel and watching Abuffalosoldier collapse after winning, was just so sad to see. My thoughts are with all connected to all 3 horses.

 

It is a sore subject if truth be told and it is never nice to see or hear about but these thoroughbred horses, love doing what they do. Abuffalosoldier ran a race like no other yesterday and his ears were pricked all the way around, he absolutely loved it. Sadly he had a heart attack after the race, which can happen and will happen again, no doubt. He went out doing what he loved but it is heartbreaking for all involved.

 

The welfare of horses in this game is Paramount and they are loved and cared for like no other, treated like royalty and as a horse racing fan, it is gutting, but it does happen, like with all things in life whether a thoroughbred or human. 

Once again my thoughts are with all those connected to all 3 horses.

 

Other than that and concentrating on the racing, it was great to have our first proper 3 days of the Jumps Season. The field sizes were small and in terms of quality, we have had better November Festival’s but when the ground is decent you have less false results. Generally the better horses win and for someone like myself who studies hours upon hours every day and every week, I am a lot more confident when the ground is decent. 

 

Over the 3 days we had tips in 15 races, coming away with 6 winners and a couple of places. A 40% win strike rate and I will take that every day of the week.

 

My records show a 14 point profit and a return on investment of 64.10%. That is based on the prices quoted and I get some may not have got all the prices but nevertheless, everyone would have made at least 10 points profit, if not more.

 

 

That is 16 from 17 Cheltenham November Festivals in profit, a record I am very proud of. 

 

 

We had 4 tips on Day 1 coming away with 2 winners.

 

 

We were on DOUBLE POWERFUL here and I was quietly confident, especially with Dylan Johnston taking the ride. He is a jockey I rate highly, especially against other Conditional Jockeys. I had nailed the race down to 5 jockeys who I wouldn’t mind being on my horse and 3 of those jockeys hit the frame. This season more than ever, I feel the jockey on board is very important. Going back 5 – 10 years, apart from your Tony McCoy and Richard Johnson type of jockeys, there was not much between them but in this day and age, I think a few jockey’s are head and shoulders above the rest.

Neil Mulholland was running DOUBLE POWERFUL only a week after winning easily at Fontwell. He was only getting a 7lb penalty even though he went up the handicap 11lb, making him 4lb well in. He will go up some more but it was a confident ride by Dylan Johnston. The horse went around the outside so even covered a lot more ground but was always doing enough.

A great start to the festival and we are off the ground running.

 

 

Nothing concrete and it depends which race they go next, but Pasir Des Flos was short of room coming up the Cheltenham hill and that cost him 2nd place. I don’t think the handicapper can be too harsh so depending on where he goes next, I will be keeping tabs on the horse.

 

 

The winner of the race Hyland jumped well throughout and ultimately dictated the race from the front. Our selection SPRINGWELL BAY jumped well throughout apart from the second last fence and that cost him any chance of winning. I do think Hyland was given a soft lead in front and SPRINGWELL BAY raced far too keen because of this. Sometimes I would like to see a jockey use their initiative and if the race is not going at a pace the horse wants it to, let him go out in front and make the running, or at least force the pace, similar to what Sam Twiston Davies done on Potter’s Charm, making Valgrand go that bit faster.

Do I think the best horse in the race won? I am not convinced Hyland is the best horse, he was the best jumper but he also had all his own way in front. A step back in trip for SPRINGWELL BAY may be on the cards.

 

 

Not really but I have my own thoughts on Springwell Bay. They have introduced a new Novice Handicap Chase for horses 145 or lower. Springwell Bay currently sits on 145 so don’t be surprised to see him come down the handicap a pound or two before the Cheltenham Festival in March. I think he has to have 3 or 4 runs over fences to be able to run in that race but to me, given how he pulled over 3 miles, a step back in trip has to happen and this is the perfect race. Watch this space.

 

 

I was very keen to take on Conflated here as he was rated 165 giving nearly 2 stone to the whole field. We got that bit right and so nearly did with MISTER COFFEY who came home 2nd. He was given a learning ride by Nico De Boinville. Sat at the back of the field and just given a patience ride so he could learn what the course was all about. For me it was a ride that looked like a plan was in place. Keep his handicap mark down, get him around, finish in the frame and it is all about March in the Cross Country. He will no doubt be back in December and I expect the same ride to gain his experience and come into the race in March ahead of the handicapper.

 

 

I have eyes for one horse here going forward and that is Mister Coffey with a view to March, with 10st on his back.

 

 

I was quietly confident going into the race with WRECKLESS ERIC. Although it wasn’t an official tip for the service, a friend of mine was going to Wincanton races last month and asked me for a couple. I gave him WRECKLESS ERIC who was cantering and would have hosed up by 10 lengths, had he not fallen 2 hurdles out. Obviously he went into my notebook as he was on a mark of 115 at Wincanton, which if he won, would have put him up to 125. Instead he only went up 2lb to 117, so I had him 8lb ahead of the handicapper. He was given a great ride by Kielan Woods and he won as easy as you like in the end. 

 

 

 

I was massively impressed with Potters Charm who won as he liked under a great Sam Twiston Davies ride. By all accounts he is a soft ground horse so to do that on good ground, tells me he could go right to the top. I would love to see him in the Challow Hurdle at Newbury over the Christmas period. It is normally soft ground and that will tell us how good a horse he is.

 

 

We went through the card with tips in every race, coming away with 3 winners and a couple of places. 

 

 

We tipped him up at 5/2 on Friday evening and he got backed into 4/5. I wouldn’t have backed him at 4/5 but obviously being at the course on Saturday, I was feeling quite smug with my 5/2 ticket. He won by an easy 18 lengths and jumped and travelled well all the way around. Be interesting to see what the Irish have as he won as easy as you like and the Triumph Hurdle will now be the long term plan. I do have doubts about what he beat here though and making sure I don’t get carried away. 

Here is a quick thought about this horse. Burdett Road won this race last year and then went on to win the Greatwood Hurdle. East India Dock will likely take the same route next season, if he doesn’t win the Triumph Hurdle, that is how far I am planning and eyeing things up for everyone…..

 

 

We were on TRANSMISSION at 9/2 the night before but with Come On Teddy being made a non runner, we got a Rule 4 of 20p, so basically a 7/2 winner. I have already mentioned jockeys in the Conditional races and Amateur races and Patrick Mullins on Transmission was an eye opener. He was easily the best jockey in the race and TRANSMISSION had form behind Hyland when 2nd at this course back in October. He ticked all the boxes and was given a great ride by Patrick Mullins.

Strictlyadancer is shot at the game and I don’t know where they go with him from here. 

 

 

 

Not normally my kind of bet but value is value and at even money, I felt he was decent value. I made him a 4/7 shot and he won like a 4/9 shot. He is only a 6 year old and he jumped amazingly on Saturday. He clearly got a lot of speed and fences have brought out further improvement. L’EAU DU SAD is the best we have over fences so far this season but I am sure come March, the Irish will have so many lining up to take him on. Having said that he can only keep on winning and doing what he is doing and so far it has been ‘so far so good’.

 

 

 

We sent this out Tuesday evening before the Festival at 9/1. We got a huge value on GA LAW who went off half that price at 9/2. I think he ran a cracking race to come home 2nd for each way money. He made a mistake at the last and although the winner was not for catching, he still battled on up the hill. He is rated 155 and I think he ran to that mark today. I don’t think the handicapper can go mad on him and I think should stay on the same mark. 

It was a bit of a gutted feeling seeing IL Ridoto win though as we have backed him so many times in these types of races. He was running off a mark of 138 with Freddie Gingell claim and was thrown in. Hindsight is a wonderful thing and is is so easy to say after the race, but 10/1 was a silly price and I need to learn from that mistake. I should have gone in with two bets in this race and covered my tracks. 

Having said that, it was still a profitable race for us but I have high standards and IL Ridoto is not a new horse to me. I got blind-sided by our hero GA LAW when I should have gone in double handed against the field. 

 

 

 

A bit gutted about this race if truth be told. I have been eyeing up Doyen Quest for over a month. Some of you will remember I put him up after Chepstow as a horse to follow. Come Friday evening, he was into 7/4 from 3/1 on Thursday evening (when he was a bet). The price crashed and unfortunately so did my bet on him as I couldn’t back him at 7/4 on his first try over 3 miles. I thought he might win, I said that in my write up but I had to stick to my guns. He ended up going off 5/4 and we went in with a value bet at 13/2 on Gowel Road who came home 2nd. Still a small profit on the race but I was kicking myself for not putting up Doyen Quest earlier in the week to seal the price. To be honest I didn’t see the price crashing the night before, I thought the gamble would have taken place on the day. A winner which went out the window for us but at least I know my eagle eye is working very well, months in advance. 

 

 

 

A decent effort from WYENOT who made the running like I thought she would but just got tired up the hill. She jumped the final hurdle in front but just couldn’t see them off in behind. Sam Twiston Davies tried to slip the field and get the off the bridle but she just wasn’t good enough on the day.

 

 

 

I was confident before the race that this horse could win as she won so well in Ireland on debut. She raced too free here though and you can’t race like that and get up the hill at Cheltenham unless you are a superstar. 

 

 

 

 

This bet was sent out Friday evening and we got some lovely odds of 7/4. He was sent off 11/10 so the value was found. He absolutely bolted up but Gunsight Ridge was after us in 2nd and had he not fallen, I am not confident MATATA would have won. You need luck in this game and I was just glad to see Gunsight Ridge get up and was sound and well. 

 

 

 

The less said the better as he was poor and was pulled up. 

 

 

A race where we pay our respects to Abuffalosoldier. He ran a cracking race to win and sadly dropped to the floor following the race. 

 

Does He Know ran a decent race with lots of weight and the more he comes down the handicap the better.

 

Manofthepeople was terrible and maybe the ground got a bit ded for him.

 

 

We sent this out on Tuesday evening at 7/2 and we found huge value. We even advised an each double with Ga Law so we made some nice profit from the bet. I thought DYSART ENOS jumped very well and 2 hurdles out I thought her speed would kick in and she would go past Burdett Road. Credit where it is due though, Burdett Road picked up again and was not for catching. A bit of a sickener as I really like Burdett Road and have often put him up as a horse to follow. THe trouble is you can’t back two horses who are 1st and 2nd favourite so I put all my eggs in the basket of DYSART ENOS. The best horse won on the day and probably benefited from a flat campaign and coming into the race a fit horse. DYSART ENOS will improve for the run and could still be well handicapped. 

 

 

 

I am obviously delighted to come away with 14 points profit. If I was offered that at the start of the festival, I would have taken that so it is very much a job done well for us.

I can’t help but think a few winners got away though, like IL Ridoto, Burdett Road and Doyen Quest but I have to play the game. I can see why I took on Doyen Quest and Burdett Road but I really should have gone back in with IL Ridoto as it was constantly on my mind. We already found the value on Ga Law so striking another bet as cover, should have been the way to go.

 

I can’t complain though, we have a 40% win strike rate and we smashed the festival to pieces and we roll on to the next. We have a cracking weekend of racing coming up and I can’t wait to get back on with things. 

 

 

I am very keen to see Potters Charm run in the Challow Hurdle. I think he is a very good horse who just keeps galloping and that race is set up for him. 

 

I also would love to see Dysart Enos go down the route I have mentioned but that is hoping rather than confidence but if she does, I will be waiting in the wings.

 

If I was to put up one horse though to follow next time out it would have to be Doyen Quest if he runs on Saturday in the Fixed Brush Hurdle. I think he gets in the race with a 7lb penalty so even if the handicapper puts him up 11lb, he only has to carry an extra 7lb on his back as he is running within 7 days. I am not putting up as a bet just yet, I will wait for final decs on Thursday to ensure he gets to the race and we don’t lose any money Ante Post. The price may well shorten then but if he had a knock or is not 100%, he won’t run but I am sure they are hoping all works well and they only get a 7lb penalty. 

 

Thanks for reading and thanks for being part of JPW Racing Tipster.