BOXING DAY 2024

 

I am happy to get involved with both these horses and increase stakes, as I feel both horses offer huge value, especially on PROPER good ground which they are going to relish. 

 

We will run through the race, runner by runner where I will offer my thoughts, starting with the favourite:

 

His form looks rock solid from Punchestown when 2nd to Fact To File and Galopin Des Champs back in 3rd. Prior to that he was a winner at Punchestown once again which suggests this is a horse who wants to go right handed. He is clearly a horse on the up and has to be respected but last time out, I am sure he would have been cherry ripe and as fit as they come, whereas Fact To File and Galopin Des Champs would have had work left in them. He is short enough and I have reservations about him staying a true run 3 miles. We have plenty of pace in this race and they won’t be hanging around. Respected but I can take him on at the price.

 

What a run last year in the Kauto Star Novices Chase. He was foot perfect that day and if in the same form, he will be very hard to beat. Kempton suits him and you have to respect him, if the true Il Est Francais turns up. Since winning last year at this meeting he has run 3 times and put in two stinkers. I don’t think he is a horse you can trust. If on a going day he could win, but will he be on a going day…. For that reason I am happy to take him on.

 

I had a long hard think about Banbridge as he is a horse who wants good ground and he gets it here. He ticks all the boxes when it comes to the ground and as I say, I had to weigh things up with him. I wouldn’t at all be surprised to see him win but the reason I can’t side with him is because this is his first time over 3 miles. He could improve for it but they will not be hanging around here and he will need to stay the trip and stay it properly. I have my reservations about him staying so for that reason, I can take him on. 

Straight away as soon as I saw the good ground, I put a line straight through him and I would go as far to say, he could end up a non runner with the dry forecast we have ahead of us. If he wins this on good ground, something he does not like, Skelton has a serious Gold Cup horse on his hands. He ran well in the Betfair Chase but that was a very hard race and I wonder what it has taken out of him. 

Another horse who seemingly wants softer ground. He has been targeted at this race though but Mark Walsh has sided with Spillane’s Tower. Derek O’Connor came in for the ride and he got a great tune out of the horse at the Cheltenham Festival, when winning the National Hunt Chase. He is drifting but I think he is decent value, but I guess you can’t back them all. Corbetts Cross could be a dark horse but I am going to take him on.

This would be some training performance by Venetia Williams if he won this first time up for the season. Another horse who wants soft ground though and unseated when beaten here in 2022. I am happy to take him on. 

This horse has a bit of unfinished business in this race. He ran in the race in 2022 but put in a poor performance but then went to Cheltenham and won the Ryanair Chase. Something quite not right back in 2022 so I am happy to put a line through that run. I don’t think it is the course as he won around Down Royal last time out and in 2022, which is a right handed course. I think Envoi Allen is very much ground dependent and give him good ground and he is a completely different horse. When the horse has had good ground he has only been beaten once and that was to Energumene over 2 miles, a trip short of his best. This horse is a class act and no doubt he has been trained to the minute for this race and everything, including decent ground, makes him tick so many boxes. 

Another horse who is very much ground dependant and a horse who absolutely loves it around Kempton. He has run twice this season and beaten on both starts but last time out, I thought he ran a cracker on ground he hated, beaten 12 lengths. He won this race in 2022, won the Kauto Star Novice Chase in 2021 and was 2nd in this race last year, hampered by the faller, Shishkin. 

He looks a huge price and maybe he is not as good as he once was but I don’t think this is the greatest King George. Paul Nicholls knows how to win this race and we have Harry Cobden in the saddle. 

 

 

The Real Whacker likes a bit of decent ground and could outrun his odds but he is a horse who I have never really warmed to. The other two French horses I know little about and surely not good enough to win this race on decent good ground. 

 

I think there is plenty of value in this race and it is not the greatest King George Chase in the world. I can find plenty of reasons to take on the front of the market and although I wouldn’t be surprised to see a few of the horses win, I have found two bets which I am very happy to get involved with and increase stakes.

Those two horses are BRAVEMANSGAME and ENVOI ALLEN.

 

BRAVEMANSGAME is a course specialist and he has also won this race in 2022, as well as 2nd in this race last year. He also wants proper good ground to be seen at his very best and he is going to get it here. In fact it is the best ground he has encountered in this race, in 3 years. His season may not have got off to the best start in the Charlie Hall Chase, when beaten by The Real Whacker but last time out when 3rd to Royal Pagaille, I thought it was a very good effort. He would have hated the heavy ground and I mean hate it, yet he stayed on all the way to the line beaten 12 lengths. He obviously had a good blow and that race could have put him spot on for this. We have Harry Cobden in the saddle who is just magic and trainer Paul Nicholls who has won this race 11 of the last 18 years with 5 different horses. 

I think BRAVEMANSGAME is huge value and I am very happy with the price.

 

ENVOI ALLEN ran in this race in 2022 and was poor. I think something was amiss as the run was too bad to be true as on his next start, he won the Ryanair Chase. It is a bit of unfinished business and he comes into the race in fine form after winning the Grade 1 Champion Chase over 3 miles, at Down Royal. This is a very classy horse and the key to him is the ground. Give him decent ground and he is a completely different horse and that is what he is going to get here.

I actually think Kempton will suit him when fully fit and primed as he will be here. 

This race has been the plan all season for the horse and we have Rachael Blackmore over for the ride, her sole ride on Boxing Day.

Like BRAVEMANSGAME – ENVOI ALLEN is a huge price and I can see them both going close.

 

I really think we can land a big winner here and I always wear my heart on my sleeve. If I fancy something I will let you know and I fancy both of them to give us a big run for our money, with the key being GOOD GROUND.