CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL DAY 3 2025

2:00 Jack Richards Handicap Chase

FIREFOX 8/1 generally – 1 POINT E/W (5 places, 1/5 odds, Sent Last Week

SPRINGWELL BAY 7/1 generally – 0.75 POINTS E/W (5 places, 1/5 odds)

FIREFOX is in the Jack Richards Novice Chase and imagine having a spectacular Wednesday and going into this race needing FIREFOX as our last leg of the Lucky 15. It is what dreams are made of ultimately.

One again another horse I have been keeping a close eye on all season and I just think this race is perfect for him, on decent ground. This is a Grade 1 horse who is running in a handicap in my opinion, he has just bumped into a couple over fences, despite starting his season off with a win. So far over fences he was a winner on debut, 3rd in a Grade 1, 2nd in a Grade 2 and 3rd in a Grade 1 at the Dublin Racing Festival. The handicapper has put him in at 150 and I have no doubt in my mind he is a better horse than 150. That mark is 1lb lower than his hurdles rating and I think he is a better chaser than a hurdler and as I have said, just bumped into the likes of Majborough along the way.

I also think he is a better horse over a further trip than he has been running and this trip of 2m 41/2f on a sound surface, is exactly what he wants.

I imagine Jack Kennedy will take the ride, a jockey who knows the horse well after finishing 3rd on him in the Supreme Novice Hurdle at Cheltenham last year. You could argue that he was unlucky as he got stopped coming to the last hurdle, before running on up the hill.  He was then 2nd in the Aintree equivalent and then 2nd at the Punchestown Festival over hurdles (All Grade 1 races). 

Now they are dropping him in his first handicap and he has the potential to make a mockery of the handicapper. 

I am quietly confident about this one and he is one of my strongest handicap bets of the week, I just hope they go for this race over the Grand Annual, which looks likely judging by the odds on Betfair Exchange. E/W.

I also want to side with SPRINGWELL BAY as I just think class wins this race. I have gone through the field and I just feel the rest of the field are a bunch of handicappers, whereas Firefox and SPRINGWELL BAY have that class to run in graded races. SPRINGWELL BAY could have easily gone for the RSA Chase today and I bet Jonjo wishes he had with Ballyburn not winning and underperforming. 

SPRINGWELL BAY loves it around Cheltenham and what a winner he was at the course back on New Years Day. It was also on the New Course that he runs on today. He won on the bridle like a proper horse and even before that, he was 2nd to Jango Baie who went and won the Arkle yesterday. 

The drying ground will be to his liking and his jumping is excellent. 

He has been trained with this race in mind for quite some time and although he has to give weight away to the field, I really think class will tell. 

Where these other Novices might fail in the jumping department, SPRINGWELL BAY is solid in the jumping department. E/W.

4:40 Plate Handicap Chase

PATH D’OROUX 16/1 generally – 0.75 POINTS E/W (5 places, 1/5 odds – Sent Last Week)

IL RIDOTO 22/1 generally – 0.5 POINTS E/W (5 places, 1/5 odds)

CONFLATED 22/1 generally – 0.5 POINTS E/W (5 places, 1/5 odds)

We have 3 selections in this race, one of which was sent last week.

I am keen to get on this Gavin Cromwell horse before the 5 days declarations come out in a couple of hours. I can see this race cutting up badly and I am confident the 16/1 will be gone. It has already been confirmed PATH D’OROUX comes to this race and although Gavin Cromwell has a number of horses in this race, surely this is the one Keith Donoghue will be riding. 

Gavin Cromwell is a very shrewd trainer who has kept PATH D’OROUX at 2 miles all season, looking after his handicap mark, knowing full well he has massive improvement to come when stepped up in trip, to the 2m 4 1/2f here. 

I say it time and again but Cheltenham form is everything and this boy loves it around Cheltenham. He was 3rd in last year’s Grand Annual Chase behind Unexpected Party and travelled so well through the race, just didn’t have the speed to go with them. He was rated 142 last year and this time around comes back with 145, just 3lb higher and a year older, so stronger physically and mentally.

He was also a winner at Cheltenham in October when beating Jazzy Matty over 2 miles, staying on up the hill very well. He was poor at Carlisle on his next start but that was just 2 weeks after Cheltenham and maybe that race came too soon. 

His last race was at Fairyhouse when 2nd to The King Of Prs in a Grade 3. He travelled well through the race and had some good horses behind, shaping like a horse who desperately needs to go up in trip. 

The ground will be to his liking as he won at Cheltenham in October on good ground and when a horse steps up in trip, I would rather them step up on decent ground as they have much more chance of getting home and more importantly, they have a much better chance to use that 2 mile speed.

I can see PATH D’OROUX coming there cruising when they come around the bend, coming to the 2nd last fence and Keith Donoghue boots him into the lead and on to the last fence. It is at this point we will see how he will stay but I have every confidence he gets the trip on his head, particularly on no worse than good to soft ground. After all he is an ex point to point horse so a trip should be no problem whatsoever and now he knows his job inside out, should bring out massive improvement. 

This is a very classy horse who is a half brother to Bueking D’ Oroux who is trained by Paul Nicholls.

I think this is time to shine and as we know, when Gavin Cromwell targets a horse, who hits the bullseye more often than not. E/W.

I think IL RIDOTO is the forgotten horse in this race and everyone is thinking this is the Paul Nicholls 2nd strong, because Harry Cobden is riding Ginny’s Destiny. That is not the case, Freddie Gingell always rides IL RIDOTO and was on board when he won the Paddy Power Gold Cup in November. He won off 141 that day and he didn’t just win, he won virtually on the bridle. He went up to 149 so he was never going to win again and it has just been a case of working backwards, getting his mark back down, and peak him at the Cheltenham Festival. He is now down to 145 and with Freddie Gingell claiming 3lb, he runs off 142.

The key to this horse is decent ground and with no rain forecast, everything’s coming together for a big run.

He loves it around Cheltenham and I can see him running a big race at big odds. E/W.

Our final selection is CONFLATED at a huge price. He was 3rd in last year’s Ryanair Chase, 3rd in the 2023 Gold Cup and was set for a place in the 2022 Ryanair Chase. He is not getting any younger but his handicap mark is now down to 154. Take in Rob James claim of 7lb, he runs off 147. He has been out of form all season so we are taking a chance he can bounce back, but it is a chance I am happy to take.

He wants drying ground and he gets it and if they can get some of his magic back, he will outrun his huge odds. E/W.
 

Good Luck