GRAND NATIONAL 2025

 

 

 

Before moving on with my complete take on the Grand National, I am going to give 5 horses in the National, all at big prices but all for small stakes. I could easily go with two horses at the top of the market and spend the same amount, but with these 5 horses, I think we have found some lovely value and all have next to nothing on their backs. 

 

What a race we have on our hands for the 2025 Grand National. The race that stops the nation and is viewed from all around the world.

 

We have been quite lucky in the Grand National finding Many Clouds at 33/1 in 2015, Tiger Roll in 2019 and Corach Rambler in 2023. 

 

It goes back even further for me though to the likes of Lord Gyllene, Earth Summit and it was this race which got me into racing in the first place.

 

This year’s renewal looks ultra competitive and I kid you not, I can make a case for about 15 horses in this race.

 

So what do you do in that position when you can make a case for so many in race? It is a tough one as if we go back to Corach Rambler in 2023, I was all over him. He headed the market but I fancied the pants off him and his win secured one of the most memorable days in the history of JPW, when we found 4 winners from 5 races on Grand National Day.

 

This season I can make a case for Iroko, quite a big case in fact as I have mentioned him all season for the race but the sooner the race is coming around and the ground is drying, while the weather is scorching, the ground is starting to go against Iroko. I can’t go all in on him like previously and it makes you look for alternatives. 

 

Stumpdown won around Cheltenham on the Cross Country Course at the Cheltenham Festival and is sure to love this type of race. Problem I am facing is, do I really think he is a 157 horse against proper horses? I am not too sure if truth be told. Sure you can get away with it in Cross Country, but this is a whole different ball game. 

 

Hewick is another I have been contemplating and what a story this would be, an £800 horse winning not only the King George but also a Grand National. The ground is to his liking and the more it dries, the more chance he has. He is now rated 162 though and carries 11st 7lb and only one horse since 1977, when Red Rum won the Grand National, has carried more weight.

 

The same principle applies for I Am Maximus who is rated 167 and 8lb higher than last year. He carries 11st 12lb so it is not going to be easy and he will have to do something no horse has done in this race since 1891, in carrying 11st 12lb.

 

Vanillier looks dangerous on a mark of 144. He was 2nd in this race in 2023 but 14th last year off a mark of 151. He has 10st 6lb on his back and the way he stayed on in the Cross Country, if all goes to plan, this race could be made for him. Even though he has a great chance, on fast ground I am not sure he has the speed in the middle part of the race. He will stay all day but I am convinced he wants more cut in the ground than he is going to get today.

 

Of those at the top of the market, I think they can all run a nice race but it really is a case of which one. I probably lean towards Iroko and Hewick but given I am not entirely convinced or have a massive urge to back any of those at the top of the market, plus quite  a few have trends against them, I am inclined to look for the value at some big prices.

 

I am going down the route of good to soft, good in places, come race time at 4pm on Saturday. I am looking at the weather forecast and I can’t see how else it will be any different. They can water all they want but as soon as the sun gets on it at 17C – 19C, it will soon dry back up.

 

For that reason I am siding with horses who I know like decent ground, have that touch of speed for the middle part of the race and have next to nothing on their backs.

 

The first horse I am keen to get on and he goes down as my main bet of the race is the Nicky Henderson trained HYLAND. Whether it is Cheltenham or Aintree or the Grand National race itself. Racing is full of stories and Nicky Henderson is yet to win a Grand National. What a story this will be and the stars are aligning nicely for HYLAND. 

He is still a novice with only 6 chase starts but is a very good jumper, so I don’t think he will have any problems around here. Noble Yeats won the Grand National as a novice and so did Rule The World in 2016, so that is 2 novice winners in the last 8 runnings of the Grand National. Some may look past novices but in actual fact in the last 8 years, the race has been won by a novice 25% of the time. 

The key to HYLAND is the ground. He is a proper good ground horse so the more it dries out the better, the hotter the sun the better. 

HYLAND was a winner at Cheltenham in October when winning by 15 lengths on good ground. He then went and won again at Cheltenham in November, over 3 miles, with some good horses like Springwell Bay, who sadly passed away, back in 3rd. 

HYLAND then went to Kempton on Boxing Day and was an excellent 2nd to The Jukebox Man in the Grade 1 Kauto Star Novice Chase. 

His final start was at Kempton when carrying 11st 13lb in the Ladbrokes Trophy, coming home 2nd to Katate Dori, off a mark of 147.

What caught my eye that day was the fact he was dropped out the back before seeing his race out really well. He is normally a front runner and was clearly being trained with one race in mind, the Grand National.

Nicky Henderson even skipped Cheltenham with HYLAND, which tells me all I need to know as he would have had a great chance in the Ultima Handicap Chase, at a course he loves, off 147.

Instead this race has been the aim and he will be tuned to the minute.

Everything is just happening for him and has come together like a puzzle in terms of the weather and the ground.

He is right near the bottom of the handicap with 10st 6lb on his back and Nico De Boinville takes the ride. 

I would like to see him out near the front and getting into a lovely rhythm as that is where he is at his best. 

He has a touch of speed and a few gears so that middle part of the race when the field starts to string out, as long as he is jumping well, he will remain in touch near the lead. He has been running over 3 miles since 2023 so I don’t think the trip will be a problem whatsoever and given he has a tiny weight on his back, if he is close enough after the last, he ought to get home. 

 

Next up is BRAVEMANSGAME. Many of you will know I have a soft spot for this horse but because of that soft spot, I know every inch of the horse. Is BRAVEMANSGAME the same horse he once was? Of course not, we have seen that this season but one thing that stands out is his handicap mark of 155. 

I have actually always thought of him as a Grand National horse but he has always been too high in the handicap, until this season….

BRAVEMANSGAME started the season rated 166 when finishing 2nd to The Real Whacker in the Charlie Hall (good ground). He has now dropped 11lb since that run. 

He finished 3rd in the Betfair Chase in terrible ground and then went to the King George but ran no sort of race. I think that race in deep ground for the Betfair Chase, left its mark and the King George came too soon.

His last start was at Newbury for the Denman Chase but the ground was soft and once again against him.

He has always been a better horse when fresh and he has now had 2 months off since his last run, obviously being primed for this race.

Like Hyland, the key to BRAVEMANSGAME is the ground. Give him good ground and he is a different horse. 

He is also a very good jumper and I think he will take to these fences like a duck to water. He jumps effortlessly and I would like to see James Reveley just let him bowl along and do his thing out in front and really take it to the field, testing them in the jumping department.

I like James Reveley as a jockey and I think he is the perfect partner for BRAVEMANSGAME, especially if they let him go out in front. 

This is a horse who has won a King George, has finished 2nd in a Gold Cup, yet he lines up here off 155 and is a huge price. 

He has 11st on his back and although he is not the horse he once was, this is his first start in a handicap since 2022. He normally races off level weights so to actually get weight off other horses, is going to be appreciated.

With plenty of places on offer and trends against a few of these, I think he could look a huge price come the end of the race and many really could be saying – ‘how did he go off that price”. E/W.

 

Next up we have MONBEG GENIUS. I tell you all the time, I keep weapons up my sleeve ready to launch if the opportunity presents itself. Well let me take you back to the 2023 Cheltenham Gold Cup Day. I was near the shopping village and walking alongside Jonjo O’Neill and because I am on the ball with the horses, I turned to him and said ‘cracking 3rd in the Ultima Handicap Chase with Monbeg Genius on Tuesday, for a novice to run like that you have an exciting horse on your hands”. He replied ”he will go to the Grand National next year and he will have a right chance”. 

That little conversation has stuck with me since. Following his 3rd at the Cheltenham Festival in 2023, he went on to finish 3rd in the Ladbrokes Gold Cup before having a setback and having to miss the National last year. He returned at Haydock in November with a 2nd that was followed by a 4th in the Welsh National before destroying a good field at Uttoxeter 2 months ago. 

Jonjo O’Neill has brought him along all season just finely tuning the horse ready for this race. Even though he won last time out, I don’t think he was primed yet he still won with ease. 

MOBEG GENIUS is a proper stayer who will stay the trip no problem. He has 10st 6lb on his back and is yet another horse who likes to be prominent. 

It has been suggested in the past that he wants soft ground but I am not entirely convinced as the breeding (by Shantou) tells me decent ground will be no problem. He has won on good ground in the past and also on good to soft ground.

He is a very good jumper and with next to nothing on his back, he is a huge price. E/W.

 

Next up is BROADWAY BOY and although pulled up in the Ultima Handicap Chase last time out, I am happy to put a line through that as it was a farce of a race. The standing start played havoc for him and he was shuffled back in the middle of the field, when he is a horse who likes to be out in front. 

He does have the issue of a standing start in this race but it is a chance I am happy to take at the prices.

At the start of the season I had BROADWAY BOY down as one of my National horses in the Tote Ten To Follow and to be fair, apart from his last two starts, he has looked every bit a National horse.

A good 3rd at Cheltenham in October with lumps of weight. This was followed by a 2nd in the Ladbrokes Gold Cup off 148 when sent off 4/1 fav. He gave another of today’s runners, Kandoo Kid, 3lb in weight that day for a 2 length beating. Today he is 5lb better off at the weights with Kandoo Kid yet that horse is 20/1 yet BROADWAY BOY is 4 times that price. 

BROADWAY BOY is an excellent jumper and he is the type of horse who if he gets into a nice rhythm, he could be hard to peg back. 

He stays forever, he jumps, he is only 7 years old and he likes decent ground. 

Tom Bellamy takes the ride and he is a jockey who I rate highly. If the real BROADWAY BOY turns up, he should not be the price he is. 

 

Last but not least is our old friend DUFFLE COAT who I thought we were very unlucky with at the Cheltenham Festival. He was brought down when coming with a run and I have no doubt he would have flown up the Cheltenham Hill. It was a hard luck story and it was a place at the very least but it was not to be.

We get another chance with DUFFLE COAT who absolutely loves decent ground. 

He was a winner of the Mayo National at Ballinrobe in May on good ground. He was 2nd in the Galway Plate on good ground, staying on very strong. His best form has always been on good or good to soft ground so the drying conditions will be to his liking. 

DUFFLE COAT gets in right at the bottom of the handicap with a tiny 10st 4lb on his back and with that tiny weight, he can come home with a wet sail. 

He is a quirky horse but what I like about him is he has always done his best work at the end of the race, something which will stand him in good stead in a race like this, if close enough. 

I think he is a monster price and I can easily see him outrunning his huge odds. E/W.

 

That is my take on the 2025 Grand National and we go into the race with 5 selections, all at big prices and my reasoning of why I am staying away from those who head the market and look for value.

 

Shop around for as many places as possible and look for the offers.