FRIDAY 10TH OCTOBER
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I cannot hide my excitement today with the Jumps Season starting. Many of you will already know how passionate I am about the jumps and what a 7 months of racing we have coming up.
I think you will see the enthusiasm and the knowledge on offer, through my write up.
Win lose or draw today, it is all about the next 7 months and you will not find a harder working tipster. I am all out to make it 16 from 18 jump season’s in profit. Crazy to think we have been around for nearly 20 years.
If you do want to join us for the National Hunt Season it is £79.99 and that covers you for everything over the next 7 months, all festivals, all weekends, any Ante Post, literally anything you can think of you are covered as part of the package.
We are even releasing our horses to follow ebook later on today and that alone produced 15 points profit last season and that was backing the horses blindly. It even gave a 25/1 winner at the Cheltenham Festival.
What a jumps season we have in store.
We will give out all our tips for free today but just remember even if we get a full house today, even if we have 3 losers, this is all about the next 7 months. What I can confirm though is this is the type of work you receive day in day out. I cover all bases and the work is next level.
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1:57 Chepstow
KOP LAND 10/1 Bet 365, 8/1 Unibet, 7/1 generally – 0.5 POINTS E/W
The one they have all got to beat is Masked Man who is trained by Nigel and Willy Twiston Davies. A 15 length winner of a point to point and he did it quite easily. They could have a smart horse but he is making his debut under rules and how many times have we seen expensive horses flop? I will believe it when I see it is one of my moto’s going into the season and it is that moto that I will be taking him on with today. Sure I can see him absolutely cruising around but there is no guarantee.
The horse I am going to side with and a horse who I think is overpriced is KOP LAND who is trained by Sam Thomas. I am going to slightly contradict myself here, as on another tip below, I have mentioned first time headgear being a negative, but with KOP LAND I think it will be a massive positive after watching him run at Wincanton in January. He was 5th of 12 that day to the talented Bossman Jack and that form could end up looking really strong as the Skeltons think a lot of that horse.
KOP LAND went into my notebook as a horse who would improve and although I probably expected to see him again last season, the fact they put him away for the remainder of the season will probably turn out to be a good thing.
This is a horse who is half brother to Good Risk At All who Sam Thomas trained and Just Over Land another horse trained by Sam Thomas. KOP LAND is sired by Bathyrhon who is the sire to Katate Dori trained by Sam Thomas. Let’s just say Sam Thomas knows this family very well.
Furthermore Sam Thomas trained the winner of this race last year with Palacio who went on to be rated in the 120s.
We have Dylan Johnston on board claiming 3lb and he is a jockey who gets better and better and is every bit worth the 3lb claim.
At 10/1 I think this horse is massively overpriced and he really could turn out to be the dark horse in the race.
Sam Thomas loves training a winner around Chepstow and this is the only runner he has on the card tomorrow. E/W.
3:12 Chepstow
TORN AND FRAYED 11/2 generally – 0.5 POINTS E/W
A very competitive Veterans Handicap Chase and you could make a case for quite a few of these. I have never really warmed to the favourite, Courtland, I find he is often well back but often fails to fire. On a going day he obviously has a decent chance but he flopped last time out at Worcester and I am not convinced he should be as short as he is on the back of that.
Le Milos for me is the class act in the race for Dan Skelton but does carry 11st 10lb and is making his seasonal reappearance. He is hardly well handicapped on 143, possibly in a veterans race, but you have to go all the way back to 2022 to find winning form off this sort of mark.
Tullybeg is interesting for Gordon Elliott, coming over from Ireland and Sean Bowen riding but again he has done nothing over fences since 2023 and it is hard to back with any confidence, despite the eye-catching entry.
The one for me is the Nigel and Willy Twiston Davies trained horse, TORN AND FRAYED. He is right near the bottom of the handicap with 10st 9lb on his back, rated 128. Nigel Twiston Davies normally starts the season off well and his horses are fit and ready in the early part of the season, another reason why TORN AND FRAYED has caught my eye.
He will be partnered by Sam Twiston Davies who we all know, if it gets into a battle, he is very strong in the finish. Him and Sean Bowen are the two jockeys I would want on my horse if it was a battle up the Cheltenham hill.
Back to TORN AND FRAYED and he is a horse who has the ability but can sometimes let himself down in the jumping department but when he does put it all together, he is a very good horse.
We saw that last season when winning a decent race at Warwick with horses like Eldorado Allen in behind.
I imagine he will be given a patient ride as he is that type of horse, a horse who can travel through a race on the bridle and when push comes to shove, be sent on between the final two fences.
With next to nothing on his back, if he is in contention turning in, he will be involved in the finish, we just have to pray for no mishaps before that.
At the price of 11/2, it is worth taking a chance and with 3 places on offer, I think he is decent enough value. E/W.
3:43 Chepstow
QUEENSBURY BOY 6/4 generally – 1.25 POINTS WIN
The Persian War Novice Hurdle is always a great race to start the season and it is a race which has been won by some good horses in the past. They include Thyme Hill, Captain Teague, Secret Investor just to name a few. The race is often won by the classier type.
A few caught my eye in this race and we will start with Sticktotheplan who is trained by Olly Murphy, a trainer I think will have a great season. Sticktotheplan has a chance but the first time head gear is a bit worrying. It tells me the yard worry about his temperament and although it may well have a positive effect, he is going to have to improve on what I have seen to date with him running in Ireland. He is in good hands though and Sean Bowen as I have said, will get the best out of the horse.
Moneygarrow is trained by Dan Skelton and anything Dan trains you have to fear but he does make his debut over hurdles here and it probably pays to wait and see how he takes to them.
Jack Hyde will have to improve quite a bit to get involved while Krak who is now trained by Nigel and Willy Twiston Davies looks a bit overpriced.
Not normally my style but I think QUEENSBURY BOY is going to be very hard to beat. He looks a proper horse and did well last season winning two races on the bridle before going over to Ireland for a Grade 1, coming home 5th of 8. I thought he travelled sweetly into the race but he didn’t find much off the bridle. It didn’t help that he had David Maxwell on board and although he got two wins out of the horse, he is a poor jockey. Credit where it is due, riding the horses that he owns, it was his choice but I often said last season that, if a professional jockey rode his horses he would have so much success.
David Maxwell retired last month so we will start off my saying happy retirement and finish it by saying ‘thank you’ – I have a good few of your horses lined up this season with a ‘proper’ jockey on board and hopefully I will cheer you on in the Winners Enclosure as an owner.
Back to QUEENSBURY BOY and trainer Harry Derham has targeted this race since March after he won at Newbury. Following the race he said ‘he is still a novice until the Autumn so the Persian War is in our mind’. That was prior to Punchestown and 7 months ago. That is how long he has been targeted at this race.
This is not a stepping stone, this is a race he wants to win and with £45k prize money on offer, you can see why.
Paul O’Brien takes the ride and he is a perfectly capable jockey who is 10 times better than David Maxwell so it will do.
I was expecting QUEENSBURY BOY to be around the 5/4 mark so at 6/4 I am fairly happy.
I think he will absolutely cruise around on the bridle before taking up the race and powering to the line. For me he is a class above and going into the race apart from any mishaps, I am fairly confident. WIN.
Good Luck