SATURDAY 25TH OCTOBER
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Un Sens A La Vie who was very poor and I was not expecting that. Not often criticising Sam Twiston Davies but why he got into a front running match up front was not clever. The horse was lit up, so to speak and he was using far too much energy. He looks a little immature and maybe this year is not his year or maybe he is a right handed horse. I do think he will turn out to be a decent horse but I must day, I am disappointed with his performance. We are flying along and just added a 14/1 winner yesterday. That is 7 winners from 20 selections this National Hunt Season with a return on investment of 112% and 24 points profit.
We are well on target for our record which was set in 2016 with 174 points profit. I am focussed and determined, professional as ever to get a new record.
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Today’s free tips
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2:20 Cheltenham
TRANSMISSION 17/2 William Hill 8/1 generally – 0.5 POINTS E/W (5 places, 1/5 odds)
HOE JOLY SMOKE 12/1 generally – 0.5 POINTS E/W (5 places, 1/5 odds)
This is a very interesting race and if they all lined up 100% fit, you could make a case for quite a few of these. You have to read between the lines though and I will give you my analysis on why I am taking on a certain horse, before moving on to our two selections.
Starting with Nassalam who is no doubt being targeted at the Welsh National and wants it bottomless. They will bring his handicap mark down over the next few runs and it will be right underneath the eyes of the public.
Three Card Brag could go well but 149 is a high enough handicap mark. He does come here a bit horse though and Gordon Elliott and Jack Kennedy are a dangerous combination.
Hyland on his day has a big chance but I just wonder will they ruin his mark here with the Ladbrokes Gold Cup being his target. If he wins here, he is into the 150s whereas if he loses here, his mark comes down. If the ground dries to good ground by tomorrow it will enhance his chances but even so, 11st 11lb on his back, first time up, is not easy.
Manofthepeople likes it around Cheltenham but you just fancy something else to have a bit more class. Another who will appreciate drying ground so monitor the going come the morning.
Fascile Mode is very talented but his jumping is awful. If he put it all together, he could outrun his odds but I am not willing to take the risk.
The Short Go is another interesting horse and he was 2nd in this race last year off a mark of 126. He is up to 132 this time around and for me, is short enough. He does go well at the course though and Henry De Bromhead may have targeted this race.
Rock My Way has a chance but again is shorter enough in the betting but will appreciate this test of stamina.
The two I am happy to get involved with for different reasons are TRAMSMISSION and HOE JOLY SMOKE.
Starting with TRANSMISSION, this is a horse who loves it around Cheltenham. He was 2nd to Hyland last October getting 5lb but this time around he gets over a stone from that horse. Is it enough to turn the form around??? A stone is a lot of weight in hand, especially coming to the end of a race over 3m 2f.
TRANSMISSION went on to win at the November meeting, was 2nd to Haiti Couleurs at the December meeting, giving that horse weight and he went on to win at the Cheltenham Festival.
His season finished in the National Hunt Chase at the Cheltenham Festival, being sent off 7/2 favourite. He could only manage 5th that day but I do think Patrick Mullins gave him a poor ride and left him plenty to do.
He was put away after Cheltenham and I think that could turn out to be a blessing in disguise. TRANSMISSION is a big horse, a proper chaser and now out of his novice days, he will be bigger and stronger this time around.
He lines up rated 132 by the handicapper which for me is well within reach.
I expect him to be held up and then turning for home come with a late run. He gets up the hill so well and with 10st 10lb on his back this race is made for him.
Neil Mulholland loves to line one up for Cheltenham and with £52k going to the winner, I am sure TRANSMISSION will be primed first time out to try and take advantage of his lenient mark. E/W.
We tipped up HOE JOLY SMOKE last time out at Chepstow but he was made a non runner. That was 2 weeks ago so a further 2 weeks in training would have improved his fitness. If he was ready then, he will be even more ready now and Dan Skelton will need to pick up £52k prizes like this if he is to trouble Willie Mullins in the Championship. I think he will have HOE JOLY SMOKE primed for this race and just like, Transmission, try and take advantage of his lenient mark of 129. Harry Skelton takes the ride and carries just 10st 7lb which is a tiny weight when you look at some of the weight the others have to carry.
Sandown is a track he has done well at in the past so Cheltenham is a new course altogether but he has shown some promise at courses similar to Cheltenham, such as Chepstow, so I don’t think the course will be a problem.
He is a smooth traveller and I expect Harry Skelton to get plenty of cover and something to work off.
If closer enough turning in, with the low weight he has on his back, not many will get home better.
I think he is ahead of the handicapper on 129 and now out of his novice days, you will see a much better horse this season. E/W.
2:55 Cheltenham
WINNING SMUT 13/2 Bet 365 and William Hill – 0.75 POINTS E/W (6 places, 1/5 odds)
GOWEL ROAD 18/1 William Hill, 16/1 generally – 0.5 POINTS E/W (6 places, 1/5 odds)
Here are my thoughts…
Long Draw is only a 6 year old and for me, deserves to be favourite. If on song he could win with ease but, Olly Murphy has said recently he is being aimed at the Pertemps Hurdle. He wins here and his mark of 138 goes into the 140s, if he loses here and comes in the top 4, his mark comes down. Will he be primed and do I want to risk it at the price? The answer is no and although I would not be surprised to see him win, I am happy to take him on.
The two horses I want on my side are WINNING SMUT and GOWEL ROAD. If we go back to this race last year, The Wallpark was the winner for Gordon Elliott and Gowel Road was 2nd. Could it be another Gordon Elliott and Nigel Twiston Davies 1st and 2nd??
Following the race last year The Wallpark was sold to JP McManus and knowing the owner of WINNING SMUT is Denis Reddan, a small time owner, a win with WINNING SMUT here could see the horse be sold for decent money. Denis Reddan also bred this horse, so even more reason why getting a Cheltenham winner is going to be high on the list.
WINNING SMUT is a horse who is only a 6 year old, is very well bred and related to some decent horses and he is improving every time.
Since joining Gordon Elliott he has run 3 times, coming away with 2 wins and a 2nd. He won very well last time out and was given a great ride up the inside by Jack Kennedy.
Gordon Elliott has got so much improvement out of the horse in such a short space of time, he could well be on the up and make his handicap mark of 133 look tiny.
I expect the same sort of ride here. Same every bit of ground up the inside and then be produced to try and win the race. If he wins here, he could be put away until Cheltenham in March and his handicap mark looked after.
I think he has a great chance with 10st 13lb on his back and it is not often Gordon Elliott wastes a journey with this sort of horse. E/W.
GOWEL ROAD has is all to do with top weight but he is capable. He is a horse who also gives his all and so often finishes in the frame around Cheltenham. He ran at the course last year 6 times, with one win, four 2nds and then was outclassed in the Stayers Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival, as to be expected. He did get his win in the Relkeel Hurdle though and he deserved that after four 2nds on the bounce.
Last year he was 2nd in this very race off a mark of 141 so we are 7lb higher this time around but we have no The Wallpark in the race who went on to prove he was a grade 1 horse, coming home 3rd in the Stayers Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival.
The reason I am putting up GOWEL ROAD as I don’t think he is being handicapped, the Twiston Davies will once again try everything with the horse to get as much prize money as they can. No doubt he will go to all the same races this year as last year and in each and everyone, try his heart out, probably ending up in the Stayers Hurdle and being outclassed.
He is rated 148 so if you are to handicap him to try and win the Pertemps in March, he will need to come down to 140 if he has any chance of winning that race and that is a long road to take.Instead I am sure he will turn for home here and try and get up the hill ahead of the rest and leave it all on the line.
He does love the hill, he finishes so strong and if he jumps the last in the lead, I can tell you now, he will be very hard to get past.
At 14/1 and given the fact I think he will be fit and ready, he should give another good showing. I would rather have a warrior horse on my side than play a guessing game and GOWEL ROAD fits the bill perfectly at a nice price. E/W.
Good Luck
JPW Racing Tipster