Friday 14th november

 

It is time to get on our 4th Cheltenham bet before the price is gone on NO DRAMA THIS END. An absolute mud lover yet the bookies are dangling us 5/1 on his hurdles debut. He is no more than a 5/2 shot in my book so at 5/1 on this ground, he offers massive value.

NO DRAMA THIS END is highly regarded by Paul Nicholls and made a winning debut in a bumper at Warwick at the end of last season, beating a very highly regarded Dan Skelton horse, Keopos Des Bordes, in rain softened ground.

He was then sent to Cheltenham for the Champion Bumper and prior to the race Nicholls said if it was soft, he would possibly consider it. 

It wasn’t soft ground but good to soft but NO DRAMA THIS END still ran in the race coming home 9th of 17. 

He was purchased out of the point to point scene for £160. following a 23 length success on soft ground. That means jumping is going to bring the best out of him and a step up in trip which he gets today. He is up to 2m 5f, making his debut over hurdles with Harry Cobden in the saddle. I think he will really excel especially with all the rain forecast Friday which will no doubt make the going heavy. How they are still saying the ground is good to soft is beyond me. I live 1 mile away from the course and it has not stopped raining with further rain to come. I am quietly confident and as long as he takes to his hurdles as I expect, he has to be bang there. We will cover him each way just in case he bumps into a good one.

 

Now let me take you back to the October Meeting at Cheltenham when FORTUNE DE MER won a grade 2 novice hurdle. Immediately after the race Dan Skelton said ”we will work backwards towards to County Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival”. 

Now let me dissect in layman’s terms, what that means….

”I have a horse here who is only having his 2nd run over hurdles, and is still a novice, but I think that highly of the horse and his current handicap mark, we are going to target the County Hurdle in March, despite the lack of experience”.

Now back to the County Hurdle and if that is his target for the season, he needs to be winning this race. It is no good losing and going back down the handicap. FORTUNE DE MER is rated 124 and 124 would never get you into the County Hurdle. 

It means he has to win here for his rating to go up. Now this is only his 3rd start over hurdles, so following this race, he will need to race two more times as the rule is, 5 runs before you can qualify to run in the race.

FORTUNE DE MER is a quirky horse and judging by his win in October, he needs to be produced at just the right time. It is also means he will probably not win by much and will be played after the final hurdle. These types of horses have a habit of staying ahead of the handicapper.

The truth is his rating of 124 could be tiny and he could be well ahead of the handicapper. 

When winning here last month, I think he travelled too sweetly, Harry Skelton didn’t move a muscle in the saddle. The way he went around in a canter, constantly taking a pull, I think Harry Skelton had too much a horse underneath him.

When they jumped the final hurdle, I think he thought he was going to win on the bridle in Harchibald style but a gap nearly went and he had to go after the horse or risk losing the gap.

He pulled out all the stops in the end and I think he had a huge amount left in the tank.

I expect another quiet ride, saving ground, getting taken into the race and this time around it really could be a bridle job.

Yes he has to carry 12st but this is a class 3 handicap and this is a horse being targeted at the County Hurdle.

He has to win the race and he has to win well…..

Given his french form, the ground should not be a problem either. WIN.