SATURday 15th november

PATRIOTIK 25/1 Paddy Power, 18/1 generally – 0.5 POINTS E/W 

It all comes back to the ground and the weight of the others with PATRIOTIK. Gowel Road has a monster task on his hands in this ground carrying 12 stone. Long Draw is being trained for the Pertemps Hurdle and has qualified so winning here would put his handicap mark up. He also wants better ground. 

Supremely West has also qualified and again a win would put him up the handicap although he does go on the ground.

The one who stands out and is a massive price is PATRIOTIK who will love the ground and will love the test this race will present. 

He is rated 123 which is a winnable mark given he beat Kamsinas off a mark of 121 last season at Doncaster, in soft ground. He was sent off 9/4f that day also and he is only a 6 year old, who could still improve.

His latest two runs have not been great but they have been on good ground and he is just can’t go with them when they quicken up.

When the ground is slow, he loves it and stays on so well at the end of his races. We saw that at Uttoxeter in March, we saw that at Doncaster when beating Kamsinas and arguably his easiest success was at Ffos Las on heavy ground.

When the others who are carrying weight get tired, if close enough PATRIOTIK will be staying on up the hill under a lightweight of 10st 5lb.

He is a huge price if Evan Williams has him spot on and given he has a run under his belt, 3 weeks ago at this course, you would expect that his fitness to have progressed. He has been dropped 2lb in the handicap since and I have seen worse bets that the 25/1 on offer, with next to nothing on his back in terrible ground. E/W.

 

 

I love this race for many reasons. It is the first big handicap of the season, it is as competitive as they come and we also have a great record in the race.

Many of you will remember, it is the race we had Ga Law a few seasons back to win £308k for the Paddy Power Gold Cup.

We have also found Baron Alco, Happy Diva and Al Ferof over the last 15 years, making big profits in the race to SP with those 4 winners.

Early entries show Protektorat as top weight. He ran in the race last year off a mark of 167, so unless he goes for the Betfair Chase the following week and given he missed the Charlie Hall Chase because of the ground, I really think he will run in this race. He is also trained by Dan Skelton, the same as our selection and by running Protektorat, it will mean PANIC ATTACK will have just 10st on her back. 

Currently the strong favourite is Jagwar but is plenty short enough off a handicap mark of 148. He won at Cheltenham in March off 139 but a 9lb hike in the handicap is going to make things a lot harder, that is for sure.

IL Ridotto is back to regain his crown and I can make a strong case for him. Like last year when I thought he was dangerous, I can see him running another huge race and maybe if he drifts to 6/1 on the day, I may have a side bet, but at the current price I just can’t back him. He could and should go very close given his record in the race so I would not talk anyone off him.

Vincenzo has been supported in recent days and that will be mainly down to the form of Sam Thomas who can get one right for the day. I just don’t think he is good enough and a little short on what he has achieved.

Coming Up Easy is over from Ireland and you have to respect any Henry De Bromhead horse. The bottomline is the Irish have a terrible record in this race and the last winner of the race from Ireland was Tranquil Sea in 2009. I can’t think of another winner before that. Even so, off a mark of 142, it won’t be easy for the horse.

That brings me on to PANIC ATTACK who is trained by Dan Skelton. She has been targeted at this race for some time, since winning at Windsor in January in fact. She won so well that day off a handicap mark of 125 and the pat on her back by Harry Skelton, when eased down, told you just how well she won the race.

This is a plot if seen one, one in at top weight and one in at bottom weight.

Just to give everyone a reminder, today we just saw what Dan Skelton did with a bottomweight horse in the Haldon Gold Cup. Thistle Ask jumped them into submission and used his very lightweight to his advantage.

12/1 about PANIC ATTACK who has only had 4 runs for Skelton, he has yet to get to the bottom of this horse with his training regime and over fences, I think he can get so much more improvement out of the horse. E/W.

 

 

Good Luck