Saturday 22nd november
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We are back on the free tips again today after a lovely Friday and Saturday last weekend. We have started the season off in great form and are well on target to make it 16 from 18 National Hunt Seasons in profit.
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We are flying along this jumps season and have big profits on the board already.
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Today we are giving out two free tips which have been chosen at random from our 5 selections sent to members.
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Prices are correct at the time of sending to our members.
ANTE POST ALREADY SENT 19th NOVEMBER
Saturday at Haydock – 2:25pm
ACE OF SPADES 8/1 Bet Victor and Unibet 7/1 Elsewhere – 1 POINT E/W (4 places, 1/4 odds)
The time has come to get involved in the Stayers Handicap Hurdle at Haydock on Saturday. I should have pulled the trigger last night and secured a slightly better price, but I think this is the horse who will be gambled and could end up going off favourite.
Dan Skelton pulled off a handicap plot last weekend for us in the Paddy Power Gold Cup, with Panic Attack winning very well, securing us a 12/1 winner.
I really think he can strike again here with ACE OF SPADES, especially given the weather looks dry leading up to Saturday, although some rain is forecast on Saturday.
I have been looking through the entries and straight away ACE OF SPADES caught my attention and not his entry here, but the entries of the Noel Fehily Syndicate in other races.
On Saturday they have 3 horses entered at Haydock, ACE OF SPADES, Mr Hope Street and Major Fortune.
They are clearly out for a Noel Fehily Syndicate race day but the question you ask is, which horse are they really at Haydock for and which of the horses are just a day out. They are not sending 3 horses to Haydock just for a drink, they are there for a winner and for the whole syndicate to enjoy a winner in the colours.
Mr Hope Street is surely not good enough to win against some top class horses while Major Fortune has a chance, it is still a career best which is needed.
For me it is clear as day that ACE OF SPADES has been paid out for the race, just as Panic Attack was last weekend.
At the start of the season in a stable tour, Dan Skelton said we will aim him at the Stayers Hurdle Handicap Hurdle at Haydock, that was on the 20th October. On the 26th October ACE OF SPADES ran at Aintree in a handicap hurdle over 2m 4f, winning easily enough in the end.
Following the race Dan Skelton said ‘we were not expecting that as we left a lot in him ready for Haydock’. That tells me he won at Aintree only 85% tuned yet has only gone up the handicap 3lb.
He also goes up in trip to 3 miles and it is at this trip where you see him at his best.
He is still only a 6 year old so has so much untapped potential to come and I think the 130 rating is well below where he will end up.
He gets in the race with 10st 11lb on his back and I have no doubt Dan Skelton will choose Ace Of Spades over Joyeaux Machin. That will be the go ahead and as soon as that decision is made, his price will come crashing down. Let’s beat it and secure a price now.
ACE OF SPADES, is a great jumper, he travels well, he can tough it out and for a yong horse, he can do it all.
This has been the plan for sometime and when Skelton plans one out, how often do they land??? E/W.
ANTE POST ALREADY SENT 18th NOVEMBER
BETFAIR CHASE – SATURDAY 3:00pm – ANTE POST
HANDSTANDS 6/1 generally – 1 POINT E/W (2 places, 1/4 odds)
First of all this has to be one the worst Betfair Chase I have seen. No ‘superstar’ in the field and the race is not what it used to be when the likes of Kauto Star, Imperial Commander, Denman, Bristol De Mai etc were around and you do wonder, do we actually have a proper Grade 1 horse in the line up???
Grey Dawning leads the way at 11/8 fav (time of writing). He was 2nd in this race on terrible ground last season to another of today’s runners, Royal Pagaille, going off 15/8 fav. I respect Grey Dawning and I can easily see him winning it, but at 11/8, he is plenty short enough on his first start of the season. Dan Skelton will obviously have him ready and no doubt this is his gold cup, but I don’t think he is ‘unbeatable’.
Last years winner Royal Pagaille lines up and he loves it around Haydock but he is now an 11 year old and you just wonder will age catch up with him, will enough rain fall for him and I think winning this race last year, completely emptied the horse as he has not looked the same since.
Could Haiti Couleurs improve enough to win a Grade 1? Sean Bowen takes the ride and he is just unstoppable this season so that is a huge plus and he also won his prep race over hurdles so will come into the race 110%. Rebecca Curtis is as shrewd as they come and you have to respect him, but this is a step into the unknown at Grade 1 level.
He won at Cheltenham last season in the National Hunt Novice Handicap Chase over 3m 6f so he is a dour stayer and he then went and won the Irish Grand National over 3m 5f, again showing how much he stays. I just wonder when they inject that pace, will he get caught out? I am not totally writing him off, as he is improving all the time, but I am just unsure whether he has what it takes at this level. I am happy to be proven wrong and will swerve him for now.
Hitman won well for us in the Old Roan Chase but he has never won over 3 miles and I am not 100% convinced he will stay a true run 3 mile chase so again I am happy to take a swerve.
The one who I am very keen on though is HANDSTANDS. He is just a 6 year old and they have not got anywhere near the bottom of the horse just yet. His best days are ahead of him and I know he has so much more improvement to come.
Ben Pauling has never hidden how much he thinks of HANDSTANDS and has always described him as a staying chaser, even when winning over hurdles, even when winning over 2m 4f over fences, even when winning the Grade 1 Scilly Isles Chase at Sandown, beating Arkle Chase winner Jango Baie.
He has always been referenced as a horse who will keep on improving and only when he gets to 3 mile chases will we see the best of him.
As already mentioned, this is a 6 year old, still so young yet he has still achieved so much. He won a Grade 1 last season, as well as two grade 2s. He went to Aintree for the grade 1 Mildmay Novice Chase but was badly hampered and that scuppered his chances. That was his season done but he was still a work in progress.
He had his first start of the season at Carlisle 3 weeks ago and I thought he jumped very well, travelled well but got tired late on. It was a lovely lung opener and the race will put him spot on. He didn’t go down by much either and Resplendent Grey is a decent enough horse.
The way I look at it is, if everyone was happy with Haiti Coleurs winning a handicap over hurdles, that run from HANDSTANDS was also decent enough giving weight away.
He will come here 110% tuned, he is up in trip and this is when we learn whether he is up to this grade. I think he is and given his tender age, I am expecting a massive step forward when others may not.
He can jump, he can travel, he stays, he has speed. As long as there are no mishaps I think he will be bang there and I am happy to take the price which is currently on offer as I can see him going off a lot shorter, especially if we get more non runners. E/W.
Good Luck
JPW Racing Tipster