FRIDAY 26TH DECEMBER

 

What a race we have in store so many angles can be taken, the thought process can run wild but it is a race I have been thinking about for a while.

We will start off with the Willie Mullins pair, Gaelic Warrior and Fact To File. What a race they contested in the John Durkan at Punchestown last month. The pair were miles clear of the field and they had to really dig deep and battle it out at the end of the race. In my opinion they both went deep into the petrol tank and although they are both superstar horses, that cannot be ideal preparation for this race. Of course they have the ability to win this race and I would not be surprised to see either win, but to battle that hard on your first start of the season is not doing either horse any favours.

I also think Gaelic Warrior will have to settle better here, he can’t go off like he did at Punchestown and get home over 3 miles. The John Durkan was over 2m 3f and although he battled at the end, he won’t have anything left at the end of the race over 3 miles, if he goes off as keen as he did.

Fact To File also didn’t stay the race like a 3 miler, does he quite get a strong run 3 mile race or is he your perfect Ryanair horse? Those are my thoughts on the Willie Mullins pair and the reasons why I will be taking them on….

Jango Baie, to be honest I am a fan of the horse, I can see him winning, I think he jumps well, he stays, he likes going right handed but the price is a tad short and when the thought process is done, I would rather have two each way bets over the one bet on Jago Baie….

 

Last year’s winner, Banbridge has to be respected and the ground is coming good for him but he has not looked the same since winning this race last year.

 

Djelo won well in the Peterborough Chase and could be a dark horse but when chucked in the deep end at this level, he has been found out in the past.

 

Master Chewy surely cannot win this race and at 150/1 odds would be the biggest shock of the century.

 

The two I am siding with each way are THE JUKEBOX MAN and IL EST FRANCAIS.

 

THE JUKEBOX MAN is 3 from 3 over fences, he won the Kauto Star Novice Chase last season at the course and clearly loves it around the course. He missed the rest of last season but returned at Haydock in November and jumped like a stag, beating Iroko who has since franked the form.

 

I also want a saver on IL EST FRANCAIS as I think he is an absolutely huge price given how much he loves this course. He won the Kauto Star Novice Chase a couple of years ago very impressively and ran a much faster time than the actual King George that year. He came back last season and finished 2nd in this race, looking like the winner all the way around, just getting tired in the last furlong. I think he has been priced on his run at Ascot last month when pulled up behind Jango Baie which obviously if he turns up in that form, he won’t win, but I just think he has been absolutely primed for this race. Nothing else mattered apart from this race and it was always about getting him to this race 110% spot on. Last time out they even dropped him 2nd. 

That was the first time they dropped him behind and he did not lead and reading between the lines, that was to teach him to settle that bit better in order to get home in the King George. 

I expect him to go from the front again in this race but hopefully be that bit more settled. They have booked Harry Cobden for the ride and that is a huge plus. James Reveley gets a good tune out of the horse but Harry Cobden is a better jockey. He can get horses to switch off just by being a passenger and I expect Cobden to let the horse roll along, sit quietly, jump from fence to fence and by not asking much of the horse while jumping, he will save so much energy. 

Going right handed is the key to this horse and decent ground also won’t hinder his chances with how fast and accurate he jumps, while he has a high cruising speed. I believe he is a massive price and although the petrol tank may start to empty after the last, with the right ride he could easily be clear. Obviously Gaelic Warrior likes to front run, I don’t think they will plan to go out in front with him if they can avoid it as he is even keener than IL EST FRANCAIS. I can see The Jukebox Man tracking them and the race will be won and lost in the jumping department. As we have already mentioned on both our selections, both are foot perfect over fences and I believe we have two cracking each way bets. E/W.

 

A small field Rowland Meyrick this year and the one who sticks out like a sore thumb is KNAPPERS HILL. Paul Nicholls has clearly targeted this race with KNAPPERS HILL who ran an absolute cracker last time out when 4th of 5 to The Jukebox Man and Iroko in 2nd. KNAPPERS HILL was having his first start for 742 days and didn’t he run well?? He was put away straight after the race and lined up for the Rowland Meyrick.

He is rated 145 and that is a very winnable mark. If we go back to before he was off the track for 742 days, he was the winner of the rising stars novice chase and rated 153. He was electric that day and if Nicholls can get him back to that sort of form, he could win this by a country mile. Even his hurdles form was electric, winning a few grade 2 races and earning himself a rating of 153.

They send Freddie Gingell all the way to Wetherby on Boxing Day for his only ride for the Ditcheat stable and I am sure it is not for nothing. He is a young jockey who sadly lost his mother at a young age and I am sure Nicholls will want to look after him with a winner over the Christmas period. They could have sent him to Wincanton for a few rides but instead he goes up North. I would go as far to say KNAPPERS HILL is my NAP of Boxing Day. WIN.