SATURDAY 27TH DECEMBER

 

Another horse who I have been waiting for and the booking of Paul Towenend on SAINTE LUCIE is music to my ears.

She is rated just 127 which I think is absolutely tiny and Willie Mullins has surely going to make full use of that rating here in what looks a mediocre race.

This is a horse who was an 11 length winner on debut for the yard last Christmas and was sent to the Dublin Festival as a ‘hot horse’ going off 13/8 fav for the Grade 1 Juvenile Hurdle. She was far too keen in that race but it shows how highly they did rate her. Next she went to the Cheltenham Festival for the Grade 1 Triumph Hurdle, coming home midfield and once again her season ended in a Grade 1 at Punchestown, again coming home midfield. Her last 4 starts have all been in graded company, three of which at the very top.

Now with a summer on her back and a bit older and wiser, you would like to think she has learnt to settle that bit better. She is also massively down in class, rated 127 and is the pick of Paul Townend.

At this level she is surely a great bet and I am sure Willie Mullins has worked his magic on the horse in training. Last season he even quoted ‘she looks one out of the top drawer’ after her debut win. How good could 127 look after the race is she actually ‘top drawer’. E/W.

 

 

I have been going over this race for quite a while and every angle I take keeps coming back to ROCK MY WAY. I have been waiting to see what happens with the ground as if it came up really soft, then Nassalam would have entered the equation but with it being dry, from now all the way through to the race, the ground will not be the heavy ground he performs best on.

 

Back to ROCK MY WAY and I fancy him a lot, hence the raised stake. I think he is tailor-made for this race and I am quite literally all over him. I was impressed with ROCK MY WAY when winning at Ascot last month by 11 lengths. He jumped so well, he travelled so well and he won as easily as you like.  That race would have put him spot on for the Welsh National as he did not have a hard race, just quite literally hosed up on the bridle. The handicapper has had his say and raised him 9lb but I think he is still capable off this mark. 

It is these sorts of trips that bring the best out of him, we saw that last year at the Cheltenham Festival when finishing 2nd to Haiti Couleurs in the National Hunt Handicap Chase over 3m 6f. He was beaten 4 lengths that day but today is 11lb better off with that horse and Haiti Couleurs went on to win the Irish National.

ROCK MY WAY also finished 5th in the Scottish National as a novice, again over a trip of 4 miles, once again showing his likeness for extreme trips.

Furthermore the Tizzards have won the Welsh National twice in the last 10 years with Native River and Elegant Escape with the latter actually being owned by the same owners as ROCK MY WAY.

This has been the plan for some time for ROCK MY WAY with trainer Joe Tizzard quoting after his win at Ascot – ” The Welsh National has always been the plan”.

He likes to race prominently and as long as he does not have any mishaps, any errors, I fail to see how he is not involved in the finish.

I am quietly confident although this is a big race handicap and it is not always straightforward but I am as confident as confidence can come in these types of races. Joe Tizzard’s horses have been running well all season and he can win his 3rd Welsh National in 11 years. E/W.

 

I am having a small saver on MONBEG GENIUS as I feel he is way overpriced. We can put a line through his run at Aintree last time out as the yard was totally out of form but they have recently started to hit nice form with 3 winners in the last 6 runners. MONBEG GENIUS was also just having a run around last time out to put him spot on for this while bringing his handicap down. He is now down to 142 which is the same handicap mark as when winning at Uttoxeter back in February. It is also 2lb lower than when he finished 4th in this race last season. Back to his 4th in this race last season and his form around Chepstow which reads 1114. Three wins from four starts around Chepstow is as good as it gets and on better ground than last year, it will help. I can’t have him going off at this price and not having a saver on him as I make him half the price. E/W. 

 

Good Luck