CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL DAY 1 - 2026

Supreme Novice Hurdle – 1:20 Cheltenham

EL CAIROS 8/1 generally – 1 POINT WIN 
 

MYDADDYPADDY 8/1 generally – 0.5 POINTS E/W 

What a race we have in store and we locked in our selections weeks ago with El Cairos and Mydaddypaddy. A lot has changed since with the introduction of Mighty Park to the field which I didn’t see coming but it has not changed anything with how I see the race being run.

Mighty Park could be anything and the way the yard are talking, they think Mighty Park is the next big thing. However, I can’t stress enough how difficult it is, to enter the Supreme Novice Hurdle with only one run under rules and no bumper form. 

Maybe he is a serious horse, maybe he is an aeroplane, but until I see him at the very top level, I can’t get involved with him.

The favourite Old Park Star must be respected. The vibes from the Henderson yard are the same, they feel they have a proper horse that poses a huge danger. He enters the race following 3 wins this season, including one at Cheltenham. He has been impressive, I can’t really fault him. However, the only thing on my mind is that at the start of the season the yard was adamant this was a staying horse. I am also not 100% sure what he has beaten to date. Given his very short price, like Mighty Park, I won’t consider the price right until I see him at the very top level.

With most races, the key to tackling them is to approach the race and determine how it will be run. Will there be pace in the race? Will they maintain a good pace, helping horses that can travel and have a turn of foot?

Honestly, even without reviewing the race in detail, you can guarantee they will be fast in this race. The jockeys are excited, it is the first race of the festival, and the adrenaline is pumping. You often find that the ‘average’ jockey gets a bit carried away. But, I won’t take that for granted; I obviously do my homework and it is clear that there is an abundance of pace in the race.

Sober Glory will no doubt set the fractions; his last two wins came from the front and he didn’t just hold the lead—he attacked it, fast and hard. Those tactics worked in his last two runs, so the same approach will be in place here. 

The same applies to Mighty Park with its sole win. He went to the front and stretched the field.

You could even argue that Old Park Star will want a strong pace, pushing the leaders to go faster while sitting just off them. Wherever we look we can find plenty of pace in the race.

This leads us to our two selections in the race who will absolutely thrive with a strong pace. They can sit in midfield, receive plenty of cover and both horses travel so strongly. If you could pick how a race would be run before the flag goes up, EL CAIROS and MYDADDYPADDY, would pick exactly how this race will be run.

We will start with EL CAIROS who, frankly, should have won the Bumper last year but for a David Maxwell ride. Nothing against David Maxwell, he paid for his horses and covers the bills, so he’s entitled to ride them. However, the fact remains that he cost El Cairos the Champion Bumper. 

This horse is all about speed. Jack Kennedy claims he is the fastest horse he has ridden, which is a bold statement, given the number of top-quality animals he has ridden.

He is a very strong traveller. The faster they go up front the better. I can really see him coming around the bend, still pulling double, then needing to jump the last hurdle before flying up the hill, using the speed he has in abundance. Those upfront will surely tire given the fractions that were set. When a horse like El Cairos is on your shoulder with that speed, it is hard for the leaders to kick again.

Some might question EL CAIROS’s jumping, given he was a faller at the last hurdle at Leopardstown over the Christmas period. He then went to Thurles for an easy race to build his confidence and made another mistake at the last hurdle. It is easy to see those mistakes and immediately say he can’t jump, based on his mistakes at the last hurdle, without actually watching his races back and observing him jump every hurdle. Obviously I have done that and I thought he jumped very well at Thurles, apart from the last hurdle. Jack Kennedy blamed himself for the mistake after the race, as he failed to decide whether to hold the horse back or ask him to go forward. After watching the race back (again), I can see that now. 

While I think EL CAIROS could possibly have a mistake in him, no horse is bulletproof, look at Constitution Hill, State Man, even The New Lion, they all make mistakes and I just think it is part of the game. On that basis, I don’t think he is  bad jumper , certainly not as bad as they are making out. The reality is EL CAIROS is just a novice with two runs over hurdles, his jumping will improve with experience and at least by falling, he would have learned a lot.

I do think he is a serious horse, a proper Champion Hurdle type with so much speed.

The drying ground, the strong pace, and the Cheltenham hill will all benefit him. As I’ve already stated, I think you’ll see him travel smoothly into the race. He will be swinging away on the bridle coming to the second-to-last hurdle, then he will be sent on to try and win the race at the last hurdle, needing a big jump before heading up the Cheltenham hill. They have also moved the last hurdle further from the finish line, meaning EL CAIRO’S has even further to go to reach top gear.  We saw last time out after a mistake at the last hurdle, how he came back on the bridle and only seriously good horses can do that, regardless of the opposition.

Speaking of jumping, I don’t think there is a better hurdle jumper in the race, than MYDADDYPADDY. He is so quick over hurdles and in every race he has run in, he takes lengths out of the others. He is fast and slick; for a novice, I have not seen many jump as well as he does. He is also a smooth traveller and looks like a proper 2 miler. The faster they go, once again the better it is for MYDADDYPADDY. He has had 3 runs this season, all before 2026. While he finished 2nd to Idaho Sun at Aintree last time out, they removed four hurdles, which significantly inconvenienced his running style. He still travelled well into the race but with the last hurdle removed, it became a different sort of race.  I believe it will be much different here because all the hurdles will be in play, we have more runners and he can be carried all the way to the final hurdle. You could question what he will find up the hill based on how he finished his last race but let’s not forget: Idaho Sun is a smart horse and the form looks rock solid.

I have also compared his race times with Old Park Star’s. As visually impressive as Old Park Star was at Haydock, MYDADDYPADDY’s win at Haydock in December was 4 seconds faster. It was the same course, same distance, and same going (although I don’t have the reading stick measurements).

I seriously like how Dan Skelton has targeted this race since 2025, he has consistently stated he will go straight to the Supreme Hurdle after his Aintree run in a Grade 1 and nothing has changed. He clearly thinks the horse was ready months ago, it didn’t need more education and has had months to prepare for this race.

Like El Cairo’s you are going to have a similar run. Midfield, plenty of cover, travel smoothly and reach the 2nd last hurdle on the bridle. I also can’t stress enough how much of a lethal weapon his jumping will be in a race like this against other novices who will likely make mistakes. In that scenario, needing a jump at the final hurdle, I wouldn’t want to be on anyone else other than MYDADDYPADDY. 

He is a monster price and I think he will run a huge race. The Skelton team has been sensational this season and they’ve really gone up another gear. The preparation and planning from the yard are unlike anything I have seen in many years. They nail it repeatedly. 

Champion Hurdle – 4:00 Cheltenham

THE NEW LION 3/1 generally – 1.5 POINTS WIN 

I sent out THE NEW LION on the 4th of March because at the time we did not know where Lossiemouth would go. I had a sneaky suspicion she would go to the Mares Hurdle and bottle it, as she did last year. If that happened, THE NEW LION would be a 5/4 favourite. Anyway, I got it wrong, Lossiemouth comes here and although waiting would allow us to get odds of 11/4, I am happy she is here because the best should always take on the best at the Champion Festival. Win, lose or draw, I hate the ‘what ifs’ we had last year, like after she won the Mares Hurdle and after the race ‘she should have run in the Champion Hurdle as she would have won’. Yes she should have, especially given the fallers we had with Constitution Hill and State Man, no doubt she would have won. She didn’t win though as they bottled it.

Anyway, back to business: let’s see who is the best of the best. 

I can’t knock Lossiemouth; truth be told, she has won around Cheltenham for the last 3 years and is 4 from 4 at the Cheltenham alone. The question I have, though, is whether you can compete against the top-tier male horses over two miles.? She performs very well against the Mares, including Brighterdaysahead over the Christmas period, but connections have been reluctant over the years regarding distances over 2 miles. I question whether they believe she is a proper 2 miler and fast enough. We will find out tomorrow. She undoubtedly has a very good chance but I am happy to take her on, especially since she was beaten last time out behind Brighterdaysahead in the Irish Champion Hurdle. 

Brighterdaysahead looked top class last time out but has never run well at Cheltenham in the past and I have to question if she handles the course, until we see it with our own eyes.

Now back to our selection: THE NEW LION….

All season THE NEW LION has taken his fair share of criticism from the media and I have just listened and smiled to be honest. 

His fall at Newcastle was not ideal but he returned at Cheltenham on Trials Day for The International Hurdle and won the race in workmanlike style. I don’t care that he beat Nemean Lion by only two lengths, nor that Brentford Hope was a nose behind Nemean Lion. THE NEW LION turned up, did what was required, gained course experience, and the whip was not drawn once on the run-in. Job done. We have bigger fish to fry in March. 

Do people really think Dan Skelton was going to have him fully tuned back in January? 

Dan Skelton is a master at his job, his training regime, planning, and preparation are sensational. From Day 1 of the season he has said, “We work backwards from the Champion Hurdle in March.”

Unlike Lossiemouth, they were unsure if she is a Champion Hurdle horse or Mares Hurdle horse. Unlike Brighterdaysahead who was going chasing at the start of the season. 

THE NEW LION’s season has been perfect and the focus was on getting him to the Champion Hurdle in A1 condition. His preparation has gone perfectly in my opinion. 

Yes he fell at Newcastle but the horse would have learned so much from that fall. He got it out of his system and then returned at Cheltenham for a lovely confidence booster, which was perfect preparation.

Now I am hearing certain people mention his jumping and that could be a problem. He is fast over his hurdles, he is slick and to me, he jumps hurdles like a Champion Hurdler should. Sure it could cause him to spill up and clip the hurdle but haven’t all great Champion Hurdle horses jumped the same way?

Istabraq fell twice because of his running style; look at poor Constitution Hill. I am not comparing THE NEW LION to those horses but to win a Champion Hurdle you have to jump a certain way and sometimes that can come back to bite you; there’s nothing you can do about it…..

Certain people have mentioned he is not a speed horse and stays further. While I slightly agree that he stays further, I disagree that he lacks speed. I thought he showed great acceleration on the last day at Cheltenham as he came from off a very slow pace. It is very hard to quicken from a slow pace but after the last hurdle he knuckled down and went up the hill without the whip being drawn. Had Harry Skelton used the whip, he would have accelerated further, but he didn’t need to, he was simply ‘looked after’. 

THE NEW LION stays further, though, and looking through the field, it is not short of pace which will only play to his strengths. They can’t go fast enough and the faster they go, the better. It will only mean he travels into the race better and I think he will be upsides anything coming to the last hurdle before motoring up the hill. Tutti Quanti will most likely lead and be followed by Brighterdaysahead, who will need a strong pace. THE NEW LION can sit at the back of the field, most probably hugging the rail, and get carried into the race. I think his style of racing is superb, you can position the horse anywhere you want. Even when winning the Turners Novice Hurdle last year, he was on the inside and then switched to the outside. Approaching the last hurdle requires gears and confidence in the horse.

I can actually see a repeat of last year in how the race was run. THE NEW LION to be cruising coming around the bend and then kicking on into the last hurdle, still on the bridle, having to jump the last hurdle to win. Sadly State Man fell but hopefully it will just be a case of clearing the last hurdle to win. 

If he jumps last in front, I don’t think any horse will get up the hill better. You have a horse with speed, gears and stamina—the perfect Champion Hurdle horse in my opinion…..

Good Luck