SATURDAY 28TH november
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A lovely free tip yesterday where the race was read perfectly. Thyme Hill is some horse and will take a lot of beating this season in my opinion. He is just getting bigger and stronger, developing all the time.
Today we have tips in five races and we are giving away our tips in two of the races:
12:10 Newbury
ESTELLE MA BELLE 15/2 generally – 1 POINT WIN
The front two in the market are short enough for me. Mrs Hyde is a decent horse but she jumps left and she may have got away with it at Wetherby but you don’t get away with it often. Her class may get her through the race but I wouldn’t want my money riding on her when she wants a right handed track.
Politesse comes over from Ireland and is a half sister to Don Poli and Debece. I imagine the ground will be quick enough for her and although again is quite classy, she is not the best in the jumping department.
On the other hand we have the Paul Nicholls trained ESTELLE MA BELLE who was a winner on her debut for her new trainer. The thing I liked most about her performance was in the jumping department where she was so fast over the hurdles, spending little time in the air. It is a great attribute to have and makes you many lengths in races. She won on the bridle and although this is a step up in class, she could be up to it. When winning at Ffos Las that was her first start since August 2019 so you would expect her to come on a lot for a winning run. In fact she has only had two runs since 2017 and the fact they are running her 5 weeks after her last run, tells me she must be in very good form at home. Given how fast and quick she is over the hurdles, if she can get through this race, she could be a dark horse for the Mares Novice Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival in March. WIN.
3:00 Newbury
VINNDICATION 13/2 generally – 1 POINT WIN
KILDISART 7/1 generally – 1 POINT WIN
SECRET INVESTOR 9/1 generally – 1 POINT WIN
We are all out for the win here with 3 selections and I am confident in these 3 selections, we will have the winner.
All three are very much good ground horses, VINNDICATION, KILDISART and SECRET INVESTOR.
VINNDICATION as always is likely to be prominent and in better ground his jumping will improve no end. A good winner last on his first start at Ascot which was followed up with an excellent 4th at the Cheltenham Festival, in the Ultima Handicap, carrying top weight. He gave lots of weight away that day and still battled on well like a proper Grade 1 horse, a run which would have put him close to a place in the Cheltenham Gold Cup.
He returned this season in the Charlie Hall Chase and was a very good 2nd to Cyrname, pulling well clear of the 3rd and 4th. This is still going to be a test with the wiright he lumps around but I think a flat galloping track like Newbury will really play to his strengths. If he can win this he proves himself as a Gold Cup outsider and given the ground has come to his favour, he won’t be far away. A classy horse who should have come on for his first start of the season.
KILDISART is a proper horse on this ground and he showed us that when winning at Aintree back in 2019. He was stepped up to 3 miles for the first time that day and proved all he did was stay. His season was not great last year, continuously running in soft and heavy ground, which was totally against him. He did run a cracker in the Ultima Handicap when 2nd to The Conditional who he meets on much better terms today. Had the ground been good that day he would have won.
He has had one start this season which was over hurdles, clearly the trainer was looking after his mark. It was in the Grade 2 Bet 365 Hurdle at Wetherby and he travelled so well throughout, eventually coming home 3rd. It was a good effort and I am sure he was nowhere near fully wound up that day and he was running to get spot on for this race. Now rated 154, he is higher enough but given he has optimum conditions, he has to go close.
More than any other horse in the race I would say SECRET INVESTOR is more ground dependent than anyone. Give him good ground and he is a proper horse. He showed us this when 2nd to Native River, at this course back in February, beaten just 2 lengths to a former Gold Cup winner. He also showed us how good he is when winning first time up this season at Chepstow. He did not come off the bridle really and was very impressive. Now an 8 year old he is in his prime and if he is going to win a big race, this is the best chance he will get. Paul Nicholls loves this race and certainly knows how to win it. Future races SECRET INVESTOR will be rated 162, so he is 3lb well in. From 10 runs on genuine good ground his form reads 1212241121. That is five wins and four 2nds, a great record. Another horse who has to be involved. WIN.
Good Luck
JPW Racing Tipster