Aintree day 1

1:45 Manifesto Novices Chase

FUSIL RAFFLES 3/1 generally – 1.5 POINTS WIN

A very good race with 7 runners but I have to admit apart from a couple of these, it looks a weak Grade 1.

The outsider of the field is Phoenix Way who is nothing more than a handicapper and surely he won’t be winning this.

The same could be said about Umbrigado. Yes he has done well this season in winning 3 races, but they have all been handicaps. This is a Grade 1 and in my opinion he is not a Grade 1 horse.

Protektorat started the season like a good thing but in his last two starts he has been very poor. You couldn’t be backing him with any confidence and if you are then you are guessing he finds his form from the start of the season.

The Shunter was a winner at the Cheltenham Festival in the Paddy Power Plate, off a handicap mark of 140. He is now up to 153 and is without the 7lb claimer in Jordan Gainford. He has done well to improve this season but I can’t have him good enough to win a Grade 1. If he does then it is some training performance by Emmet Mullins but surely he has reached his limits.

Eldorado Allen came home 2nd in the Arkle to Shishkin and it was a great ride by Harry Cobden as he was ridden to place. He knew he couldn’t get near Shishkin so he sat off the pace, let the other try and get to Shishkin, knowing he would rip them a new ***** and they would tire late on. He got up for 2nd on up the hill and it was well played by Harry Cobden for place prize money. He is now up in trip and the way he finished at Cheltenham, you would think he will appreciate the step up in trip but I just think he was flattered by very tired horses who tried to race with a superstar in Shishkin.

That leaves us with Hitman and FUSIL RAFFLES.

Hitman comes here a fresh horse and purposely missed Cheltenham for this race. That normally bodes well for horses at Aintree and I do respect the horse. Trouble is I just don’t think he is as good as FUSIL RAFFLES and that is all it is too it.

FUSIL RAFFLES needs good ground to be seen at his best. He gets it here as he did at Cheltenham in the Marsh Novice Chase where he put in a top class display to come home 2^nd to Chantry House. FUSIL RAFFLES jumped very well all the way around at the Cheltenham Festival and only went down by 3 lengths. I think Aintree is course which will suit him better than Cheltenham, with it being a flat track, so in my opinion he can only improve. He loves good ground that much that his form reads 21111 an if you include good to soft ground, his form reads 211111P2. For me he is the best horse in the race and the one horse that we already know going into the race, who is of proper Grade 1 class. I think he should be clear favourite and as long as Cheltenham has not taken much out of him, he should win this without any troubles. WIN.