Weekend Review (20th NOVEMBER - 21st NOVEMBER)
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A rare losing weekend for us at JPW, albeit just 1.5 points loss but these things happen and we will bounce back next weekend. We are still 36 points in profit for the current National Hunt Season, while our Weekend Special is still 189 points in profit since January 2020, operating at a return on investment of 26.24%, which is an incredible stat given it is over a nearly 2 year period.
Today we are going to go through our selections and see where it wrong, as well as where it went right.
We are also going to go over some key talking points and a horse to follow.
Our Selections
We had 6 selections over the weekend, coming away with 1 winner and 1 each way.
Our sole winner of the weekend was A Plus Tard who was a raised stake and although he was a short price, I pretty much had him down as a certainty. He actually won the race in better fashion than I expected and what an extraordianry peformance. It was a performance that reminded me of how Kauto Star used to win his races, with Ruby Walsh taking a pull 3 out and 2 out. When Rachael Blackmore took a pull 3 and 2 out, straight away I was thinking, this is a very special horse. He has improved again this season and he is still only a 7 year old. It feels like he has been around forever and he should be a 10 year old but when winning a Novice Handicap Chase at the Cheltenham Festival by 16 lengths, A Plus Tard was just a 5 year old.
After seeing his breathtaking performance on the Saturday when winning the Betfair Chase, as long as he stays at the same level of form, I really can’t see anything lacing his boots in the Cheltenham Gold Cup, he is a far superior horse. Throw into the mix Rachael Blackmore and the 7/2 available, really is not a back bet. You only got to look at the opposition really – Minella Indo won last years gold cup but he won’t be improving to past what A Plus Tard done on the weekend, Envoi Allen I think will end up down the Ryanair route as Cheveley Park Stud will want to keep them apart, Chantry House will improve again this year but surely not enough to trouble A Plus Tard, even though I am a big fan of Chantry House. Finally Al Boum Photo who again won’t be improving at his age and got put in his place last season by A Plus Tard and Minella Indo. There is absolutely nothing else left in the Gold Cup to lay a glove on him.
Our other each way bet was Farclas on the Sunday in the Troytown Chase at Navan. I was quietly confident as I do think he has a big race in him but he was put in his place by Run Wild Fred who won with ease. We have to settle for 2nd and some each way money. It still don’t stop me thinking that Farclas can win a big one throughout the season.
It is important we touch on our losers as ultimately that is what we learn from and that is how we better things going forward.
The Paul Nicholls newcomer, Songrino was our first loser on Saturday who we advised at 6/1. He was sent off half those odds at 3/1 and ran a decent enough race, just couldn’t quicken between the last 2 hurdles. Nevertheless it was encouraging and a step up in trip could see that horse in better light next time out.
If The Cap Fits was given a strange ride in my opinion. Daryl Jacob decided to take them along but he did so at a crawl. If you are going to adopt front running tactics on a horse like If The Cap Fit who is a dour stayer, then you have to at least try and get the others off the bridle as these days, he is a galloper. By setting the pace up as a crawl, it suited a horse who had run over 2 miles on his previous start in Dans Le Vent. One thing I will say about If The Cap Fits is he will continue to come down the handicap to around 146 and the more he comes down the better proposition he will be for a race like the Pertemps Handicap Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival in March, if they get him qualified.
Defi De Seuil has sadly passed it now. I give him the benefit of doubt given he was back up in trip but sadly he is on a rapid decline. This happens with the French bred horses who seem to peak early in their careers before taking a dip in form around 8 – 10 years of age.
Our final loser of the weekend was Zoffee which was actually a bad mistake on my behalf. Two starts back I said his jumping was terrible and just because he jumped better last time out, I decided to give him another go, when really I should have practiced what I preached. We are only human and that is a selection I will learn from.
What profit is the Weekend Special at since 1st January 2020
Our Weekend Special has smashed in the profit over the last two years and since 1st January 2020 we are 190 points in profit operating at return on investment of 26.24%. As you will see from the graph we have only had 4 losing months from the last 21 months and the profit really is relentless.
We offer 4 packages on the Weekend Special:
PROFIT TO £10 STAKES SINCE JANUARY 1st 2021
Talking Point From The Weekend?
I guess the talking point for me is with regards to Bob Olinger and Bravemansgame. Bob Olinger made his debut over fences this weekend and although winning, he did not look like a natural. No doubt Bob Olinger has so much ability but he will have to improve his jumping and I am sure that will happen next time out.
I have heard a lot this weekend about how Bob Olinger smashed Bravemansgame last season over hurdles and because of that he is the better horse over fences. I think naturally Bob Olinger is the better horse but he is not a natural over fences like Bravemansgame.
I cannot tell how impressed I have been with Bravemansgame jumping on his 2 runs this season and he has not started at the bottom, he has taken on horses like The Big Breakaway, Fusil Raffles and Itchy Feet on the weekend. They are all top quality and Bravemansgame jumping is probably the best I have seen from a novice, since Sprinter Sacre.
It does seriously make me laugh how people think it is a given that because Bob Olinger was a better horse over hurdles, he is with definitely be a better horse over fences. Let me just remind everyone that hurdles to fences are completely different and I will remind everyone of a certain horse called Sprinter Sacre. He was 3rd in the Supreme Novice Hurdle behind Al Ferof, Spirit Son and back in 4th was Cue Card. Sprinter Sacre turned out to be the best by far over hurdles.
I really think Bravemansgame is special over fences and I have said from day one, even before he jumped a hurdle, never mind a fence. The way he takes lengths out of the field at his fences and how quick he is over his fences, he really is going to be very hard to beat. Just to clear things up, I also think Bob Olinger is a special horse but I am less convinced he is suited by fences than hurdles and class alone over fences, is not always enough.
Horse To Follow From The Weekend?
I would go with Songrino when stepped up in trip. This was his first start for Paul Nicholls and I am sure he is learning with the horse all the time. I don’t think he had the gears over 2 miles but still jumped well on the whole and going a tad slower over further, I expect him to travel nicely. Not sure he is a graded horses but he has a nice handicap in him later down the line. Interesting horse who will also appreciate the ground a bit slower, which will be the case over the few months.
