CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL TIP
Brown Advisory Novice Chase (RSA Chase) – Wednesday of the Cheltenham Festival
BRAVEMANSGAME 2/1 with Coral and Ladbrokes, 7/4 generally – 2 POINT WIN
I think now is the time to get involved with BRAVEMANSGAME before this field cuts up and he goes into 4/5 favourite. Galopin Des Champs looks sure to go to the Turners Chase over shorter, Willie Mullins has no said many times, he favours the Turners Chase and the betting on the exchange suggests that will be the race he will go. We also have Bob Olinger entered in the betting but again he will go to the Turners Chase. Even further down the field, L’Homme Presse looks likely to go to the Turners Chase, Stattler the NH Novice Chase. All of a sudden this race has cut up badly and I would not be surprised if we only had 6-7 runners. It then becomes a match bet between BRAVEMANSGAME and Ahoy Senor with a few outside squeaks. BRAVEMANSGAME beat that Anoy Senor with ease at Kempton on Boxing Day and I am confident we will see the same outcome here. Even last time out he ran him in a Handicap giving away 16lb and more to his rivals and he once again won with ease.
If this race really cuts up badly as I predict, you may even see BRAVEMANSGAME go off 4/6-4/7.
I am a huge fan of the horse and I like the fact Paul Nicholls has not wrapped him in cotton wool this season. From his very first start he was running him against good horses out of Novice Company like Fusil Raffles and The Big Breakaway. The same on his 2nd start against the likes of Itchy Feet and these are proper 150+ horses and he beat them all with ease.
On Boxing Day he won the Kauto Star Novice Chase by an easy 7 lengths and if anything he looked better than ever when getting a lead from Ahoy Senor. I do rate Ahoy Senor but he is very exubberant over his fences and he tends to jump to his right slightly. He won’t be able to do this at Cheltenham and get away with it.
I think this will be a good battle but Harry Cobden needs to stick on the rail within 1/2 length of Ahoy Senor as coming to the 4th last I imagine Ahoy Senor will jump right and BRAVEMANSGAME can nick up on the inside as the bend quickly approaches after the 4th last, and he will save valuable ground. Even if Ahoy Senor don’t jump right at the 4th last he will have another opportunity at the 3rd last with another bend looming. The more tired Ahoy Senor get tired, the more chance he will jump right in my opinion.
If we go back to last years RSA and watch the replay, you will see Monkfish hug the rail and was always within 1/2 length of The Big Breakaway. Under no circumstances was Monkfish coming away from that rail as Paul Townend knew he jumped true and straight.
It is imperative that Harry Cobden implies the exact same tactics so if you are reading this Harry Cobden, do exactly as I say and you will win the RSA without a shadow of doubt. 🙂
Jokes to one side, this is serious stuff and these manoeuvres are what win or lose races.
BRAVEMANSGAME is without doubt the best Novice jumper of a fence in the UK and Ireland and I would go as far to say he is the best jumper outside of Novice company also. Long or short it doesn’t matter he is a very clever horse when it comes to jumping and seems to be able to gallop at the same pace for along way, similar to how Denman used.
I think this trip around Cheltenham is the making of him and as long as Galopin Des Champs is not running in this race, he is my NAP of Cheltenham. WIN.
SATURDAY TIP
1:32 Kelso
NORTH LODGE 11/4 generally – 1 POINT WIN
I have alot of time for this NORTH LODGE and he is a horse who is progressing nicely withe very run. He has a penalty to carry here but I think he can get away with it. His has a great attitude and in both his wins this season, he has really knuckled down and got the job done, sticking his neck out. He has already beaten todays favourite by a length the last time they met and although has to give extra weight away today, he has progressed further since then. It is a good clash as Richmond Lake was only beaten by Jonbon last time out, by 3 lengths. For me it is a 2 horse horse and I expect NORTH LODGE and Richmond Lake to fight out the finish with our selection just digging that bit deeper in the closing stages.
