CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL DAY 1

1:30 Supreme Novice Hurdle

JONBON 11/2 generally – 0.75 POINTS E/W (3 places, 1/5 odds)

MIGHTY POTTER 13/2 generally – 0.5 POINTS E/W (3 places, 1/5 odds)

This has the potential to be one of the races of the festival and what a race it looks to get the festival going. Actually a bit frustrated about this race as we were sitting on a nice 6/1 ticket on Sir Gerhard, only for him to be taken out of the race and is now Ballymore Novice Hurdle. I think he will still win that race but I also felt this Supreme Novice Hurdle test, would have suited him down to the ground and he would have won this race. Obviously not a lot we can do about it now but I see it as a different race to how it would have been, had he lined up. He would have been my sole selection as I was quite confident but I am now going to approach the race differently with 2 selections. 

I think the important thing about this race is how the race is going to be run and where the pace is going to come from. I think it is clear as day that Dysart Dynamo and Kilcruit are going to take them along, and take them along at a good clip. Dysart Dynamo looked an excellent horse when winning the Moscow Flyer Novice Hurdle last time out and looks to have a decent engine. My concern with Dysart Dynamo is how he will handle the preliminaries and already being a  very keen horse, will the big crowd light him up further in the parade ring. If he wins the Supreme with how keen he is and how he pulls, he will go on to be a superstar but I just worry is he going to be a sitting duck, by getting too keen and blow up against elite horses. I also worry about his jumping and whether it will quite be good enough. At this level against the best horses around, can he afford to pull and can he afford to make any mistakes? One thing we are granted with him in the field though is a strong pace.

Kilcruit could be a big danger and he was actually my 3rd pick in the race. I like him and he is another horse who will go from the front or just sit off the leader. He is the type of horse who just keeps galloping and if Patrick Mullins can get his fractions right, he could be hard to peg back. It was touch and go whether I was going to side with him but I have be true to myself and I can just see this race being set up for a horse in behind and surely with the fast pace from Dysart Dynamo and Kilcruit, they will be queuing up in behind ready to pounce, once they turn that corner and head on to the last hurdle.

We have some serious horses in this race and we have to give Constitution Hill a big mention. He has done nothing wrong all season and comes here after 2 impressive wins. He could be special but I do question what he beat in the Tolworth Hurdle back in January and how strong the form is. As impressive as he was on the eye, the 2nd that day was Jetoile who went on to finish last in the Betfair Hurdle while the 3rd, Mr Glass could only finish 3rd in Class 3 Handicap. I think he could win but the price is just not for me with the few negatives I have mentioned.

The two I am going to side with are JONBON and MIGHTY POTTER as I really think this very strong pace is going to really play into their hands. Both to me look like strong stayers and after the pace they go, I really think you will need a horse who is going to get up that hill.

We will start with JONBON who comes into the race with 3 wins from 3 behind him this season. JONBON is a full brother to Douvan who won this very race in 2012, in the same conditions so on breeding alone, everything looks perfect for him.

He could not have been anymore impressive on his debut over hurdles at Newbury, dismantling a good horse in Good Risk At All on the bridle who has since gone on to win and will be seen at the Festival, later in the week.

JONBON then went to Ascot and won the Grade 2 Howden Kennel Gate Novice Hurdle, quickening up nicely to again win on the bridle, looking a very serious horse.

His final start was at Haydock in soft ground for the Grade 2 Supreme Trial. To the eye it was his least impressive win this season but for me, from a learning point of view, he would have learnt plenty. Up until this race we knew he could jump and we knew JONBON could travel. What we didn’t know was what he found off the bridle. Well it is safe to say that we now know he finds plenty off the bridle and not only can he quicken once but he can quicken twice as well as showing us that he stays every yard and could actually go up in trip if needed. The length of the victory was not great and he had to work hard but when the going got tough, he battled hard.

The way this race is going to be run will suit JONBON down to the ground and I think he will fly up the hill. The faster they go in front, the better he will settle, the better he can travel and when they start to stop up front, he would have had a lovely toe into the race. If he is closer enough coming to the last hurdle then the stamina he clearly has will kick in, and this very classy horse can motor on up the hill. 

I also feel MIGHTY POTTER is the same type of horse who is going to be well suited to this fast pace they are going to go. If we didn’t have any front runners in the race I would have been a little wary but I can’t tell how much this race is going to be run to suit. MIGHTY POTTER is a horse who was described as a big baby at the start of the season who is only going to keep progressing. Well for a big baby he has done extremely well and was a Grade 1 winner last time out, beating Three Stripes Life who ran a cracker on his next start, to come home 2nd to Sir Gerhard. MIGHTY POTTER showed us that he can battle hard that day and clearly stays that bit further which once again confirms that, if he is closer enough coming to the last hurdle, he will fly up the Cheltenham Hill off a fast pace. 

Even on his penultimate start back in November, MIGHTY POTTER came home 3rd in a Grade 1 but what I was impressed with most, was how he finished the race. From the last hurdle to the line he made up 6 lengths and only went down by a length once again confirming that Cheltenham is going to be right up his street.

MIGHTY POTTER is a horse who is only going to keep progressing with each start and with Jack Kennedy in the saddle it just fills me with confident. I am very confident he can have a big say in this race and I just love the horse’s attitude.

With both our selections this year and given the pace of the race is confirmed, I fully support that ‘stayers win the supreme’. Not only is the pace going to be extremely fast but it is the first race of the festival where those who shoot off in front, can get overly excited and set it up for JONBON and MIGHTY POTTER, who are our 2 classy horses who stay that bit further.