CHELTENHAM NOVEMBER REVIEW 2022

 

 

In our very first race at the Cheltenham November Festival, we found 2 places.

 

Fine Casting went to the front and came there swinging away and I thought here we go, we are off to a flyer. After jumping the 2nd last hurdle the Gavin Crowell trained, Sweet Will, was coming at him strongly and you could just see he would get outstayed. Credit where it is due to Gavin Cromwell as Sweet Will was winning in Ireland on Tuesday and then on Friday winning at Cheltenham. To win in Ireland and travel all the way to England to win 3 days later, takes some training so credit to the horse and all connected.

I do think Fine Casting is worth keeping an eye on as that was his first start of the season and he is sure to come on for it.

Hector Javilex also ran a cracker to bring home more money each way in 4th place and although he was still involved jumping the last, you could always see he would be held.

Our other selection was Hurricane Harvey and he just didn’t travel and ran in snatches, staying on at the end of the race. He probably needs to go up in trip and I am sure by the end of the season he will come to hand, and on a dangerous handicap mark.

 

For me it has to be FINE CASTING. This was his first start of the season and he is sure to come on for the run, he just got a little tired going up the hill. I would possibly send him to Newbury if they can find a race over 2m 3f – 2m 5f. A flatter track and a strip fitter should see him hard to beat.

 

I have always had a lot of time for Amarillo Sky and some will remember I put him up last season as the horse who was the best handicapped going into last season. He proved us all right last season and even going into this season, although I wouldn’t say he is the best handicapped horse of the season, I still felt he had a few pounds improvement, no out of novice company. He was very good here, fast over his fences, settled, jumped, he just looked a complete 2 miler.

 

Amarillo Sky has only gone up the handicap 4lb and I am sure around a flatter track he will be even better. Obviously it all depends what opposition he comes up against next but on 144, I think he can keep progressing.

 

It is a tough one with Pull Again Green and I probably have been stung twice this season with him, due to him making some nice profit last season over hurdles. At the start of the season I make a list of horses who are going chasing but should have stayed over hurdles, and Pull Again Green was one of them. Stupid of me really but we live and learn and are only human.

I think it is clear he just doesn’t jump well enough over fences and needs to go back hurdling. If he were mine I would give him a little rest, take him back schooling over hurdles and target the Cheltenham Festival and the Coral Cup. He is on a mark of 138 and that mark would get him into the Coral Cup at the bottom of the handicap.

 

None from this race, although if they did decide to go back over hurdles, Pull Again Green would get my attention.

 

A decent effort from Ballyandy but the weight he gave away to Magic Dancer (over a stone) told in the end. The one thing I was taken with from Ballyandy was how much his jumping has improved from his novice, just as a note to others. I am sure he will get a win over fences before the season is out.

 

 

I was super confident about the chances of Hermes Allen and we nailed the write up ‘a horse who will keep galloping from the front and looks the perfect Cheltenham type’. He won with his head in his lap by 9 lengths. Post race reports say it may not have been as good a performance as it seems but I am having none of it, it was a top class performance and he will just keep getting better and better in my opinion. Just a little bit of comparison, this was a race in which Blazing Khal won last season and Hermes Allen ran the race 6 seconds quicker on exactly the same ground and readings. Blazing Khal is 2nd favourite for the Stayers Hurdle in March…..

If he were my horse I would step him up in trip and target the Albert Bartlett Novice Hurdle. To me he looks like a galloper and may not have the speed for the Ballymore Novice Hurdle, a similar type of horse to Denman (not comparing) but a horse who can sustain a decent gallop over 3 miles.

Hermes Allen’s future ultimately lies over fences though and anything he does this season will be a bonus.

 

 

Alto Alto was quickly pulled up from hurdles from home and was never travelling. The trainer has said it was because he was running 14 days after his last run but I just think he didn’t enjoy Cheltenham and right handed tracks such as Sandown are more suited.

Mothill ran a decent race to come home 4th for place money and he looks a consistent sort. Maybe a step up in trip next time out will help him.

 

 

 

What a start to the day and given the horse was called Scriptwriter, it was aptly named given we went on to win the Scoop 6 Bonus. Milton Harris is a shrewd operator who won this race last season with Knight Salute. This horse was always going to be primed to try and get a Cheltenham winner as they don’t come around too often. A horse purchased out of Aiden O’Brien yard and rated 102 on the flat, if nothing else he had talent going into the race. Scriptwriter didn’t jump that well and was green so you can only assume he will keep improving. I think this run will go down as underrated and he could be one to keep on the right side of, if the price is right.

 

 

The horse that brought home the £308k Bonus on the Scoop 6, the horse that was screamed home like no other in 15 years of tipping. What a ride, what a training performance and what a team effort. From over 600 days off the track, to winning the Paddy Power Gold Cup with one run under his belt. We absolutely nailed the race.

 

 

I was quite keen on Shearer going into the race and he was gambled into 2/1. Unfortunately he was hampered and unseated the rider. As it was 4 hurdles out he had to stay on the same handicap mark and we will see where he goes next.

Lisnagar Oscar was poor and looks like he is completely out of love with the game.

 

 

We just bumped into a Tony Martin plot although missing the final hurdle definitely suited the winner Unanswered, given he has run on the flat 11 times. This was Wiseguy 4th career start and if they can keep him fit, he could end up way better than that handicap mark.

Forever William ran a decent enough race but the 3 miles probably stretched his stamina.

 

 

We backed Bonttay on the back of her win in the race last season but she was blown away by a very good horse in Queens Gamble. Beaten fair and square and I really think Queens Gamble could go right to the top.

 

 

 

We ended up with just 2 selections on Day 3 due to non runners and one of them would not have been a tip if we knew Edwardstone would be a non runner.

 

A tip that was put up before Edwardstone was made a non runner and although he was sent off at 1/10 we did alright at 6/4 and a 55p Rule 4, certainly a lot better than 1/10. This really would not have been a tip though if we knew Edwardstone would be a non runner.

 

I was expecting much better from Sonigino if truth be told and he was very poor. Not sure what happened but he is obviously not the well handicapped horse I thought he was. To rub salt in the wound, a horse I have in my tracker, I Like To Move It won very easily and we should have gone in double handed.

 

 

 

Another Cheltenham November Festival in profit and that takes us to 14 from 15 Cheltenham November Festivals in profit. If you combine the actual Cheltenham Festival in March with the November Festival, we are actually 28 from 29 in profit. A record I doubt anyone in the industry has. I am a modest person in general and let my knowledge and high standard of work do the talking but sometimes you have to shout it from the rooftops and JPW surely is the king of Cheltenham. Not only that but we go and win the Scoop 6 Bonus, we also win the Scoop 6 Win Fund again and at last year’s Cheltenham November Festival, we also won the Scoop 6 Win Fund.

We are also 14 from 14 National Hunt Seasons in profit and with this being our 15th season, and already over 35 points in profit, this is highly likely to be our 15th straight season of profit.

We have been around for many years, a decade and a half to be precise and deliver year in year out – consistency at its best.

 

I would obviously love everyone to join us on the journey and I would love everyone to increase their bank balance. You are in safe hands and the results do the talking.

 

Come and join us for the remainder of the National Hunt Season for just £55.00. All our tips from now until 29th April for £55.00.

 

Why so cheap people may ask, ultimately we have a huge following so it pays its way and we are also honest and trustworthy and we don’t want or need to charge an arm and leg.

 

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