CHELTENHAM festival DAY 3

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A lovely day on the free tips yesterday with Langer Dan winning at an SP of 9/1.

We have plenty more up our sleeve today.

The Cheltenham Festival Full Time Service is now on 8 winners over the last 2 days.

Don’t forget you can still get all our tips for the remaining 2 days for the £9.99 via the website and tips will be sent immedaitely to you via email.

This is not to be missed!

https://jpwracingtipster.com/subscribe/festival-special/next-festival/

Today we are giving away free tips in 2 races and prices are correct at the time of sending last night or when sent out Ante Post.

2:10 Pertemps Hurdle

*Already sent Ante Post* – WALKING ON AIR 10/1 generally – 1 POINT E/W (6 places, 1/5 odds)

I am quite surprised WALKING ON AIR did not go a bit shorter in the betting after winning at Exeter on Sunday. I have kept quiet about it since Sunday so it didn’t set any alarm bells off before we released this week’s Ante Post Bet, but I thought it was a very good performance. I said on Sunday that WALKING ON AIR was possibly one of the best handicapped horses on this side of the sea, I still stick to that. Back to Sunday and WALKING ON AIR travelled very well, jumped very well and stayed on strongly at the end of the race. Let’s not forget that on Sunday he was carrying 11st 7lb while the 2nd who was chasing him home (Sabrina), only had 9st 13lb on her back, yet WALKING ON AIR was not stopping.

Going back to the start of his career, WALKING ON AIR was a very impressive winner on debut over hurdles, at Newbury, and following that win Nicky Henderson said in a year or two this horse is going to be spectacular. That was a very bold statement at the time given he had only had one run over hurdles. From there he was sent straight to Aintree for the Grade 1 Mersey Novice Hurdle but his jumping really let him down and he was pulled up. What that entry did tell us was that Nicky Henderson thought he was a Grade 1 horse.

He started this season as a horse who could go under the radar in my notebook, as in the back of my head I always knew how highly Nicky Henderson rated WALKING ON AIR. Some people might forget about those little snippets but they stick in my head for years on end and from time to time, they become a valuable source of information.

His first run this season came at Aintree over 2m 4f finishing 3rd of 13 in a decent handicap. Sure with his talent he probably should have won but this was only his 3rd start over hurdles and the horse is still maturing, being only a 5 year old at the time. Next up was Doncaster over the Christmas period and although sent off a short priced favourite, he came home 4th of 9. Disappointing as he is a talented horse but he is still a work in progress. His final start was on Sunday at Exeter and it all came together over 3 miles as he settled, travelled, jumped and quickened like a very good horse. I don’t even think he got out of 3rd gear if truth be told and Nicky Henderson has nowhere near got to the bottom of this now 6 year old.

Nicky Henderson has slowly brought this horse along all season and he is getting him to peak at exactly the right time and that is in the Pertemps Handicap Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival.

How much more improvement has the horse got to come? I don’t know but I wouldn’t be surprised if he had a good 10lb – 15lb improvement to come as let’s not forget this is a horse with just 5 runs over hurdles to his name.

WALKING ON AIR is bred very well and is sired by Walk In The Park with the Dam being Refinement who was beaten a short head in Mares Hurdle into 2nd, back in 2008, was 2nd in the 2004 Bumper, 4th in the 2005 Bumper and 3rd in the Ballymore Novice Hurdle back in 2006. She was also a Grade 1 winning hurdler at the 2007 Punchestown Festival.

The reason I am mentioning all this is to show everyone how very well bred he is and the fact her mother clearly liked it around Cheltenham. WALKING ON AIR may not have run at Cheltenham just yet, but if he’s anything like his mother, he will have no problems around the course.

Everyone else is looking towards the Irish for this race and I may have it all wrong here but for me leading up to the festival, this is as good a handicap bet out there with a British Horse in my opinion as WALKING ON AIR is nowhere near the finished article. In normal years before the Irish dominated the Cheltenham Festival, this horse would have gone to the head of the market but because the bookies go Irish mad with fear with the Irish horses, they are slipping up with horses like WALKING ON AIR.

As you can see from above, every little bit of detail has been thought about and well thought out, this is exactly the same process I give to every horse at the Cheltenham Festival.

I don’t always get it right as that is impossible but this level of work and rationale is what has delivered the profit for me in 14 of the last 14 festivals. 2023 will be no different as we make it 15 from 15 festivals in profit.

This Pertemps Hurdle will be a big field and we will need a bit of luck in running but with 5 places on offer, it is hard to see why he won’t make the frame at the worst while at the same time I am quietly confident WALKING ON AIR can win the race. E/W.

3:30 Stayers Hurdle

*Already sent Ante Post – HOME BY THE LEE 6/1 with William Hill and Sky bet – 0.75 POINTS E/W – STAYERS HURDLE (Thursday)

The Stayers Hurdle is wide open this year and you can make a case for quite a few of them. Blazing Khal heads the market and is a dangerous horse. He returned from 428 days off the track 10 days ago with a win in the Grade 2 Boyne Hurdle at Navan. He should progress further and is obviously a very dangerous horse but at the price of 9/4 and given how fragile he clearly is, I am happy to swerve him for now. If we can get a bigger price on the day or just before the festival, I may get involved but at this precise moment I am happy to take him on.

Teahupoo is also another big danger but I am not entirely convinced Cheltenham is the course for him and a strong run 3 miles may just take him out of his comfort zone. With last year’s winner Flooring Porter likely to make the running, they won’t be hanging around here. Talking of Flooring Porter, he clearly loves it around Cheltenham but he has not had the straightest training programme leading into the festival and it was only a couple of weeks ago he was 50/50. Another horse who might entertain us come the day but I would like to hear more before getting involved.

With all that in mind the bet of the race has to be HOME BY THE LEE at 6/1 with William Hill and Sky Bet.

I must admit if you asked me at the start of the season if I would be backing HOME BY THE LEE, I would have called you mad but here we are, 3 weeks out from the festival and I think he has an absolutely outstanding chance. He has run 2 times this season and has won both races. His season got underway at Navan in November where he grinded the race out to beat Bob Olinger by 2 lengths, over a trip of 2m 4f, which is a trip short of his best. He was back up to 3 miles over the Christmas period for the Christmas Hurdle and he stayed on strongly to win by 3 lengths, with the likes of Flooring Porter, Ashdale Bob and Bob Olinger in behind. What I love about this horse is the fact he does all his best work off the bridle which is a big attribute in a race like this where they won’t be hanging around. HOME BY THE LEE is a very tough horse who sticks his neck out and you know he just stays and stays.

He ran in the Stayers Hurdle last year where he came home 6th of 10. He was pushed along coming to the last hurdle in his usual fashion and I think his run can actually be marked up as he flew up the Cheltenham Hill and made ground on every horse, including the winner, Flooring Porter, coming up the hill. He was beaten 7 lengths but jumping the last hurdle he was 10 – 12 lengths down. Not means he made around 3 – 5 lengths up when coming up the hill. For me that is a big plus as it proves he loves the stamina test of the hill.

We also now know he has improved a lot this season given how well he has been running and I like the fact trainer Joseph O’Brien is going straight to the festival from the Christmas Hurdle. He is going to the race a fresh horse, he is being trained to peak in one race only and I am sure he can improve those 7 lengths from last season. With 3 places on offer and at the price of 6/1, he is a cracking each way bet at this early stage.

I am also going to have a small stake on SIRE DU BERLAIS at a ridiculous price. He loves the Cheltenham Festival and has won 2 Pertemps Hurdles and finished 2nd in this race in 2021. He may be past his best but it is this time of year that he comes alive. He won the Stayers Hurdle at Aintree last year and you can literally write off anything he does over the winter, as Gordon Elliott trains him to peak in the Spring. I am not saying he is going to win this but I would not be at all surprised if he plugged on for a place here. If he is close enough after the last hurdle, not many will get home better than him. E/W.

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