National Hunt 2024/2025 Preview

 

Plenty of huge stories and history await us this season, some will hit the headlines and others will be nearly stories.

 

 

 

A question I have been asked many times over the last few months, will Constitution Hill be the same horse after his bout of Colic? I will give the same answer once again – does he need to be as good as he was…..

 

Constitution Hill was so good at 100% before his problems, that even 85% of the former horse would still rule the 2 mile division over hurdles. He was just an absolute machine and was so far ahead of his rivals that as long as he is healthy, he is going to be very hard to beat once again.

 

State Man was always his main danger and will likely test him again this season but Lossiemouth is the one who can give Constitution Hill most to think about. They will all unlikely meet until the Cheltenham Festival but if they all get there in rude health, it will be a fascinating race.

 

I will refrain from saying whether I think Constitution Hill will bounce back as it is a guessing game but he really does not need to be as good as he once was to continue to rule the 2 mile hurdle game.

 

 

I would love to see Galopin Des Champs win a 3rd Gold Cup but it won’t be easy, it never is. Those gruelling 3 mile Grade 1 races eventually take their toll and I just wonder if he has now had too many hard races. Saying that he will only be a 9 year old come the Cheltenham Festival in 2025 and he is a horse who has only had 19 career starts.

My heart says he can do it but at this precise moment my head is saying maybe Fact To File will be hard to beat.

Although if someone offered me 7/2 about him winning the Gold Cup tomorrow and they race tomorrow, all lining up fit horses, it would be hard to walk away from that price, given how well he has won the last two gold cups.

His defeats recently have come at Punchestown so maybe right handed courses are his undoing. When it comes to left handed courses, he remains unbeaten apart from a fall at the Cheltenham Festival in 2022.

His main dangers are Fact To File and Fastorslow and it is hard to see anything else coming from out of the pack.

I bumped into Tony McCoy on Gold Cup Day following Galopin Des Champs winning the Gold Cup, and as you do I asked him, ”who wins out of Fact To File and Galopin Des Champs in the Gold Cup next year”? Without hesitation and without even thinking, he said ‘Fact To File’ without doubt. Big statement and I know he would be biased to the JP McManus horse, but it was how quickly and confident he said it which caught my attention.

Willie Mullins trains both horses and it is hard to see past either of them winning.

As things stand you could back both of them at 7/2 and 4/1 which means if both line up on Gold Cup and one of them win, you are guaranteed a 5/2 winner. It is hard not to see either winning. It is not a bet I am placing or have placed, but just a bit of logical thinking and praying they both get there in March, it is not a bad bet to be sitting on. Doubtful they will clash between now and March as I am sure Willie Mullins will keep them apart.

Not sure if it will happen but I would love to see Fact To File go down the Betfair Chase, King George route and then straight on to the Gold Cup……

 

 

What a training performance last season to come over here and literally steal the Trainers Championship from Paul Nicholls and Dan Skelton. I am sure Willie Mullins will want to do it again this season and you could see a lot more of his horses racing over here through the winter months. He has such a big yard of horses and strength in depth, it just makes sense. He could even set up a satellite yard over in the UK, which probably won’t happen this season but I think that may be on the cards in the next couple of years.

 

Do I think he will win it again? He will need to win the Grand National again but with 10 of the favourites in the Ante Post market for the Cheltenham Festival already, he won’t be far away. He is the current favourite with Dan Skelton and given how many good horses he has, I think he will win it with ease this season. Last season it was only after the Cheltenham Festival he started to chase it down, with a better start in the UK, he could walk the Championship.

I am sure the UK trainers will not go down without fighting but they don’t have the horses which Willie Mullins has.

 

At the current price of 8/1, I think Nicky Henderson is a great price. If Constitution Hill won the Champion Hurdle and Shishkin the King George before he fell, he would have been right in the mix last season.

 

 

I think Brighterdaysahead for Gordon Elliott is going to be a special mare over fences. I loved the way she won her race at Aintree and looks tailor-made for fences.

 

Mystical Power is a horse who has not reached his full potential yet and I can see him turning into a smart horse this season. He was 2nd in the Supreme Novice Hurdle, a winner of the Aintree equivalent and then a winner at Punchestown. He is still a green horse who is learning on the job and I would be surprised if they send him over fences.

Whether he can improve enough to live with the likes of Constitution Hill, State Man and Lossiemouth, is another question but I can see him winning his fair share of races this season. He is only a 5 year old and his best days are ahead of him.

He is also bred impeccably by Galileo and out of Annie Power, it does not get much better than that.

 

I think Sir Gino could be a natural over fences. I love Nicky Henderson with these 2 mile novice chasers and no doubt he has another special horse on his hands. At 10/1 with Paddy Power and Ladbrokes for the Arkle, I have already started backing him.

Everyone is sidetracked by Ballyburn at the top of the market and don’t get me wrong, he was a monster of a horse last season, but I have my reservations about his head carriage over fences. I guess we will find out but naturally Sir Gino looks a proper 2 mile chaser in the making.

 

 

 

 

As already mentioned above, I have many horses lined up if the conditions and races are right. I have been working hard in the background for many months, making sure I am ahead of the game.

 

I will share one with our readers though and it is with a view of this horse going for the Paddy Power Gold Cup at Cheltenham in November.

 

Trained by Jonjo O’Neill, CREBILLY is a horse who I think is tailor made for the Paddy Power Gold Cup. Jonjo O’Neill loves to win this race and has won it in the past with Exotic Dancer, John’s Spirit and Tarquin De Seuil. He has a horse in CREDBILLY who is rated 143 by the handicapper. I think he is seriously well handicapped and he had a great season last year as a novice. He had 5 starts in total which started with a fall at Cheltenham, when travelling really strongly in a race won by Ginny’s Destiny, who went on to big things. He fell two out and I am convinced he would have won that race. He was then 4th to Ginny Destiny again at Cheltenham, a winner at Exeter which was followed by a lovely 2nd at the Cheltenham Festival to Shakem Up’arry in the Handicap Plate. He was rated 140 that day and for a novice chaser to come home 2nd in a race like that, tells me with a summer on his back and now rated 143, he has so much more to come.

His final start of the season was at Aintree over 3 miles and he simply did not get the trip.

I would be surprised if Jonjo did not go down this route as after winning or placing in the Plate, lots of horses have gone down the route of the Paddy Power Gold Cup.

The market is not up for the race just yet, but I will be waiting patiently ready to pounce as soon as the market opens.

 

This is just one of the pieces of work I have lined up over the winter and I have a notebook full of them. The bookies are going to get smashed over the winter months, you mark my words.

 

 

I am an absolute fanatic when it comes to Jumps Racing. I live and breathe it and have been in the game for 16 years. That is over a decade and half and we have made profit in the last 15 of 16. We are established as they come, we are respected and we are as trustworthy as they come.

 

We have achieved so much in the last 16 years, whether that be breaking records on the Scoop 6 with £500k wins, whether it be 15 from 16 Cheltenham Festivals in profit, whether it be for our unrivalled work ethic which you can see from my long detailed write ups above.

 

We leave no stone unturned and work consistently harder than anyone in the industry.

 

The knowledge and experience we have built over the years is second to none and believe me when I say this is going to be a season to remember.

 

I know it doesn’t mean much to most of you, but over the last year, I have had an extension and new office being built at my home. The plan has always been to finish the office and extension ready for the upcoming National Hunt Season.

 

This is my first day of work in the New Office and I am focussed and excited to get going. No sidetracks, just pure focus over the Winter of hard work and dedication over the jumps.

 

I have my eyes on the prize and I am fully set on breaking our 2016 record of 174 points in  season.

 

You watch JPW go…..