SATURDAY 23rd novmber 2024

Prices are correct at the time of sending to our members last night.

 

Some of you may remember we were on PUSH THE BUTTON at Cheltenham in October when 5th to Wyenot over 2m 4f. Following that race I said ‘I wouldn’t give up on it though as he could well bounce back. I also believe 3 miles could be his trip but his jumping will need to improve’. 

Here we are and up to 3 miles. He remains on a mark of 132 and he could have gone to Cheltenham last weekend for a few races, but they have opted to keep him for this race and make full use of his handicap mark. 

This is his first try over 3 miles but there is no doubt in my mind he is a staying horse and I expect significant improvement over this trip. 

I do still have doubts in my mind about his jumping but he has only had 4 starts over hurdles, so his jumping should improve with the more experience he gets. I also feel the slower they go the better and he will find jumping that tad easier. 

He was a good winner at Warwick on soft ground, this time last year, beating a horse called Cherie D’Am who went on to finish 3rd in a Grade 1 at Aintree.

It is also worth noting that his last run at Cheltenham was his first run for 338 days, so it was no doubt all about blowing the cobwebs off and looking after his handicap mark.

We have my man Sam Twiston Davies in the saddle which is a massive help and I am confident as long as he jumps, he can go very close. E/W.

 

I am keen to take on Grey Dawning who is having his first run of the season. I may have it completely wrong and he may well improve massively, but I am not convinced of the form in the Turners Novice Chase. Ginny’s Destiny was pulled up last Saturday and he came 2nd, Djelo is a decent handicapper, Zanahiyr, again a decent handicapper, Iroko will improve but has a long way to go to be a proper Grade 1 horse. Not one of the horses mentioned are ‘proper’ grade 1 horses, so I am not convinced by that until otherwise proven by Grey Dawning. He also loves deep ground and although rain is around, I can’t see it being enough to turn it to testing ground. As I have said I may have him completely wrong and if I have, hands up, but this is a big step up in class against some very good horses proven right at the top in grade 1 races.

The horse I have been eyeing up for this race since his run at Aintree is AHOY SENOR. He ran in the Old Roan Chase last time out over 2m 4f, which is a trip less than ideal, giving away stones of weight, yet finished like a train to only go down by 2 lengths. It was a brilliant effort and one of his best seasonal reappearances in his career. That would have put the Lucinder Russell horse spot on for this race and I believe she has targeted this race with the horse this season. In other seasons, it has been about slowly bringing him along, to excel at Cheltenham and Aintree but he is not up to that class these days, so an early season target approach is the way to go.

AHOY SENOR is an Aintree specialist. He was 3rd at Aintree last time out, 2nd to Gerri Colombe in the Bowl Chase back in April, 2nd in the same race in 2023, a winner of the Grade 1 Mildmay Novice Chase and as you can see Aintree brings out the best in him. That is because when they turn in they have 3 fences ahead of them and a long straight and it plays to his strengths.

Now I believe Haydock is a similar track to Aintree as when they turn in at Haydock, they face 4 fences in the long straight and although he has never run at Haydock before, I have always thought this particular course and race would play to his strengths. 

We saw last time out how well he finished his race off over a trip too short and I can see him going clear down the home straight. 

There is no doubt this horse stays and jumps well on his day and the strong pace likely will again be an advantage. 

To be honest I can’t ever remember tipping up AHOY SENOR but in my notes which I make against every horse, I have had ‘Haydock will suit this horse no end” and that has been locked in since 2022. 

The timing could not have worked out better as I believe he will come here in A1 condition and although this looks a good race on paper, a lot of these are on the decline. The same could be said about AHOY SENOR, but he was not primed first time up where the likes of Bravemansgame, who flopped, were. 

Of the others you have to respect Royal Pagaille as he won the race last year, but will he get soft enough ground, I am not sure.

Capadanno has been supplemented but I don’t think he has the class, I could be wrong.

Hewick wants proper good ground where as this ground will more than likely be good to soft, soft in places if the forecast is correct and I am sure they are trying to peak him for the King George next month. 

The Real Whacker is interesting but I don’t think he beat much last time out and you can’t read the form literally as Bravemansgame is on the decline (or being handicapped for the Grand National, we will save that for another time).

 

All in all, AHOY SENOR looks solid at the price and for me is overpriced at 6/1. I am happy to win only as I am confident he goes very close, bar any mistakes. WIN.

Good Luck